Tour de France Preview

Cycling’s biggest race kicks off on the Fourth of July in Barcelona, Spain.

Unfortunately for American readers, there will be no 250th celebration in the Catalan capital for the six Yanks riding the Tour de France. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be fireworks.

For this preview, even though every podcast and YouTube channel and traditional cycling outlet has already done almost the same thing, I’m going to name the protagonists for the General Classification (Yellow Jersey), Green Jersey, Polka-Dot (Mountains) Jersey, and White (Youth) Jersey, then stage contenders, before doing a stage-by-stage profile analysis with picks for each stage win, and finally predicting each jersey winner and the final GC top ten.

I haven’t written much in the past year, and I have a lot of time on my hands at the moment, so this will be a big boy.

General Classification contenders (in order of my power rankings):

Tadej Pogacar, Paul Seixas, Paul Seixas, Isaac del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, Remco Evenepeol, Juan Ayuso, Tom Pidcock, Tobias Halland Johannessen, Antonio Tiberi, Thymen Arensman, Egan Bernal, Cian Uijtdebroeks

There are a dozen more guys who could sneak into the top-10/12, but that depends on breakaways and race dynamics. There are only four men with any realistic hope of winning this race, unless half of the peloton gets sick or crashes out. And in any normal scenario, barring illness or injury, there is really only one guy who can win the 113th Tour de France.

Obviously, that’s Pogacar. He needs little introduction, but I’ll do it anyway. The four-time champion has also finished second twice (and never worse that, and only because of a couple catastrophic bad days in 2022 and 2023, which, following a coaching change entering 2024, he simply does not have anymore). Pogi has won 13 races so far this year (in fact, besides a few stages in Switzerland, he has not actually lost any races in 2026 besides Paris-Roubaix, a race that obviously does not suit a climber, where he finished 2nd). He has won on the cobbles of Flanders, the knolls on the Italian Coast, the mountains of Switzerland, the gravel of Tuscany, and the sharp hills of Wallonia. In his final preparation race, the Tour de Suisse, Pogacar won three of five stages, the final GC, and produced the best climbing performance of the season on the final stage, in quite hot conditions. He has 121 career victories (including five Grand Tours, 13 Monuments, 21 Tour de France stages (plus six in the Giro and three in the Vuelta), 21 total GC victories in stage races, and countless other races. In the eyes of most neutral observers, including the overwhelming majority of the modern peloton, he has surpassed Eddy Merckx as the greatest cyclist of all time, by the age of 27. The 2026 Tour de France is extra important for him because it is the first opportunity for him to tie the record for most overall Tour wins, at five, a record shared by Merckx and three others. It is also a chance for him to make major inroads into the stage win record, held by Mark Cavendish at 35. Pogi sits on 21, and will need two unbelievable, three insane, or four average (for him) more Tours to get this record. He has spoken negatively about records, and the Tour de France as a whole, but I firmly believe he knows this is the most important race and is hungrier than ever to dominate it. Thus, I think he wants to win eight Tours and 40 stages if his body allows it, simply to leave no doubt that there will never be anybody as good as him. According to the bookies, Pogacar starts this Tour as about a 75% favorite to win. I think that the number is 92-95, which is basically crash and DNF probability. He never gets sick and in his entire career, has never DNFed a stage race. Thus, I’d recommend putting good money on 1.25 odds for Pogi this July. Unfortunately, due to what in my opinion is a disappointing route, he won’t win 10 stages this year, but expect him to dominate the race from a GC and stage win perspective. Pogacar brings with him the strongest team in the race, likely the strongest team in the history of the race (not the most dominant compared to the rest of the peloton, but the strongest overall). He’ll be looking to make statements wherever he can, having been hampered by a knee injury in the third week last year and the loss of his teammate Joao Almeida, which cost him several stage wins and a bigger gap on GC to Jonas. Look for him to be aggressive and crush his opposition at every opportunity.

Paul Seixas is the biggest storyline entering the race. A 19-year-old from France enters as third-favorite according to the bookies, and in my opinion has the second-best chance to win. Not only is he the man with the potential to end France’s 41-year Tour drought this year, he is going to be the youngest rider to even start the Tour in this century. He possesses more obvious potential than anyone I have seen since I started following cycling seriously in 2018. How is this possible? For the full breakdown, see my analysis here: https://puncheur.blog/2026/06/17/the-rise-of-paul-seixas/. In short, for this piece, Seixas has been the only man to follow Pogacar after a serious attack this year, which he did Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He has won seven races in 2026, including Itzulia Basque Country, which was the first WorldTour Stage Race win for France in 18 years. Seixas has made a half-dozen leaps in performance in the past year, and gone from a French cup farmer in the first month of his neo-pro year to a Tour de France contender halfway through his sophomore season. His most recent race, at the Tour Auvergne-Rhone Alpes, ended in disappointment as he crashed and abandoned on the final stage, but assuming he recovers physically (he seems mentally unshakable), he is going to be lethal at the Tour, because he is already that good. The reason that I consider him second-favorite for the Le Grand Boucle over Jonas is because we know Jonas’ level already (he has not improved since 2024, and is nearing 30) and Seixas is improving exponentially. To be fair, far more likely than a victory this year is a collapse in the third week or a steady fifth-place result, but this guy really has no limits at this point. One thing is for sure, in my mind: Seixas will win the Tour de France eventually. And that would make the French quite happy indeed.

Second favorite according to the bookies, but third for me, is two-time champion, three-time runner-up, and winner of all three Grand Tours, Jonas Vingegaard. He is the only rider to have ever beaten Pogacar at the Tour de France. Pogacar, in fact, has not lost a stage race since Jonas crushed him in the third week of the 2023 Tour. Jonas won the Vuelta a Espana in September and the Giro d’Italia in June, so he has ticked off the last two Grand Tours and completed the career sweep of all three. He’s on 11 wins this year including Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya. He enters the 2026 Tour as a big underdog, but with some upside considering he looked good in the Giro with five stage wins, and Pogacar came off of the Giro in 2024 in better form in July. The projected gap between the two of them is still quite large, however, because Pogacar destroyed him the last two years, and the Slovenian has already shown better form in Switzerland than the Dane showed in Italy. As mentioned above, I don’t expect Jonas to improve much from June to July, and the level he showed in the Giro is not enough to beat Pogacar. If you were gambling on second place, this guy is a very sure bet. But winning is extremely unlikely.

The last man who can win the Tour de France this year is Isaac del Toro, and this is only because he is Pogacar’s teammate. There are three scenarios in which I could envisage the Mexican winning: there is some funny business, team tactics, or Pogacar crashes out and Del Toro is miraculously stronger than everybody else. Del Toro’s best chance, by far, is via funny business, most likely on Stage Six, which we will get to later. UAE does not really do team tactics in big races where Pogacar is present, and Pogacar is vanishingly unlikely to crash out, and the odds even slimmer that Del Toro is strongest among Seixas, Jonas, and everybody else if he did. But what makes him a better bet than the rest of the start list? Del Toro is 23 years old and still improving. He has already won eight races and three GCs this year, including the race formerly known as the Dauphine, and done one of the best climbing performances of the season on the final stage. Last year, he nearly won the Giro d’Italia, as the strongest rider in the race for most of the event before losing on the final day and finishing second, though tactics were at play and it was not all down to a collapse from Del Toro. It is more than apparent that the young Mexican can win Grand Tours in the future, but he is almost certainly not ready to win the Tour de France this year. The podium behind Pogacar is a great goal for him.

Florian Lipowtiz impressively finished third last year in an assured three-week effort. He has had an excellent year in 2026, most recently winning the Tour of Slovenia and two stages. He is not flashy, and does not win the biggest races, but the German is a consummate Grand Tour rider: a consistent diesel climber and strong time trialist. Lipowitz has zero chance to win this Tour de France, or any in my view, but he could poach a weak Giro or Vuelta at some point in his career. That being said, he’s not a bad bet for the podium again assuming a crack from the young bucks ranked ahead of him here. One problem he faces in that struggle is his teammate, who I rank next.

Remco is the biggest prodigy ever to grace the sport of cycling, going from a injured footballer at age 16 to a world junior champion on the bike at age 18. Yes, within less than two years of training on the bike, he was by far the strongest junior on earth. Being Belgian (a nation without a Grand Tour winner since the 1970s, until Remco) only added to the hype. He won the World Championship Road Race and the Vuelta in 2022, and he’s won the WC Time Trial three years running. He is an Olympic Road and ITT champion, and he podiumed his first Tour de France in 2024. He has been around for decades and is still 26. Unfortunately, despite a glittering palmares, he has never shown the ability to climb with Pogacar or Jonas, and he cannot defeat Pogacar in Classics. Sadly, his career has been ravaged by crashes, which have interrupted his progression in training. And he is human, meaning he is prone to seemingly unexplained catastrophes, unlike Pogacar (post-2023) and Jonas for example. Remco has not raced in over two months, which is unprecedented for a non-injured Tour contender. I don’t think it will make a difference in either direction for the Tour, but he should have raced to rack up some results as an insurance policy. I believe Remco’s ceiling in the Tour is a podium place and ITT stage win, but I would say 4th-6th (or a third-week implosion and DNF) is more likely.

Juan Ayuso is another mercurial rider who starts his second Tour, but first as leader. Despite showing immense ability at points in his career, he has yet to prove that he can climb with the true aliens. Ayuso is also still just 23 years old, so he has plenty of time to improve. He can time trial and sprint as well as climb, and this Tour route is good for him (not many huge mountain days). Ayuso’s ceiling is also the podium, but as with Remco, we just do not know what to expect from him. His recent form is strong, having finished second at the TARA (former Dauphine), but he was soundly defeated by Del Toro there. It’s hard to imagine him finishing on the podium when he was getting crushed by Pogacar’s domestique a few weeks ago.

Tom Pidcock managed to podium an extremely weak Vuelta last fall, his best GC result by far. Pidcock is an elite puncheur, but he will bleed time on major climbs and time trials. He is simply not a top GC rider. I’m second-guessing ranking him above the next guys, but I think his upside is higher than Johannessen, for example. Pidcock is an outside bet for a top-five, but if I were him I’d ride for top-ten, and if that fails, go for breakaways. He won’t be defeating the GC guys in uphill sprints (of which there will be several).

THJ is the token Norwegian for me, chief Norway-stan (let’s go Haaland in the World Cup!). But he finished 6th last year in the Tour. He has had a decent year and gained time back late in multiple stage races via breakaway coups. He’ll be strongly in the mix for another top 10. Look for his team (Uno-X) to launch him with three or four Norwegian rouleurs into a 30-rider breakaway on a stage you won’t expect to put pressure on the guy 5th in GC. Halland Johannessen cannot climb with any of the guys ahead of him except maybe Pidcock, but he’s fairly steady and his team will help him. He’s sort of like a mini-Lipowitz, but with a phalanx of huge Scandinavian vikings to back him up. Lipo has a strong team too, but Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe (the German outfit he lines up for) tend to be less tactically creative. I like the idea of Johannessen improbably sneaking a top-5. Maybe he’ll crash Pogacar again (I say that in jest, it was clearly an accident)

Antonio Tiberi is flying so far under the radar he is underground. I have not seen one person mention him as a top-10 guy for this July. Is everybody forgetting how he beat Del Toro uphill in the UAE Tour in February? He also finished 5th in the Giro in 2024. Granted, recent results inspire no confidence in the Italian, but he clearly made a jump this year. If he can rediscover the climbing form he had in the desert, he is almost a lock for top-10, especially because the talent steeply falls off after the bakers dozen, and things can always happen to the riders in front of the Sniper (IYKYK).

Thymen Arensman won two stages of the Tour last year and has shown he can be a consistent top-10 guy in Grand Tours. His main red flag for me is that he is coming off of the Giro this may, where he was on perhaps his best form ever and finished 4th. He could be tired in July, or he could be even stronger. I tend to lean towards the opinion that he’ll do what Jens Voigt says guys do: come off of the Giro flying and climb better than ever for 1.5-2 weeks, then collapse in the third week (of course, in the history of people just making things up and the body politic believing them because they are revered as elite athletes, or rich, or whatever, Jens’ comments are elite. Look at what Pogacar did in the third week on the 2024 Tour de France, after winning the Giro by 10 minutes two months before. He rode the two best climbing performances in the history of cycling). My point here is that we have no idea how a guy is going to come off of the Giro, and Arensman might shock the world at the Tour. Indeed, he may not even be going for GC here. But if he does, I wouldn’t bet against him over performing. Let’s not forget that it is more than possible that his team wins the opening TTT and puts him in a pole position on GC. That won’t be nearly enough to hang on for even the podium, but top-5 is not completely out of the question.

His teammate, Egan Bernal, is one of the few men in history who have won the Tour de France, and one of three on this start list with that honor (he has also won the Giro). Before Pogacar, he was the youngest winner of Le Grand Boucle in 100 years. Despite an unimpressive showing and some luck in 2019 to narrowly win, some commentators thought he might win 10 Tours. Seven years later, he’s still sitting on one. Even considering the way he snuck Colombia’s first ever Yellow Jersey, nobody could have predicted how his career would mostly fizzle out. He has been the victim of a number of devastating crashes that almost took his ability to walk forever, let alone compete in Grand Tours. He is still improving, pushing his best numbers ever, but everybody else has improved so much more that he has not been top-5 in a Grand Tour since he won the 2021 Giro d’Italia. Bernal also rode the Giro this year, and his inclusion in INEOS’ team for this Tour indicates how desperate the British outfit has gotten. They can’t even find a third-tier GC guy to guarantee a top-5, so they’re relying on two guys who just flogged themselves in the Italy to try to break through. This is team that won 6 out of 7 Tours in the 2010s. Oh well. There is a saying in the National Football League: “You know what NFL stands for? Not For Long.” And the grip of Sky/INEOS on the Tour de France lasted almost a decade, which is about the length of the current UAE/Visma stranglehold on the race. If history says anything, we are due for turbulence and a shakeup at the top very soon.

Cian Uijtdebroeks is already a journeyman at age 23. He won the Tour de l’Avenir in 2022 and as a Belgian, was subject to a lot of hype. Since then, he’s won precisely one road race and the GC (of a 2.1 race) but this year he is putting together a consistent season. I expect him to be steady and pace himself well when the stars start attacking. That could allow him to pick off stragglers and snag a nice 7th or 8th position in Paris.

Green Jersey contenders/sprinters: Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen, Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen, Arnaud De Lie, Biniam Girmay, Dorian Godon, Olav Kooij

Merlier was injured for most of the spring, but has won several minor races since returning, and can be expected to perform well in July. He’s the fastest sprinter in the world, but I don’t expect him to go for green. He won’t contest the intermediate sprints or go in breakaways on mountain stages, while others will.

Philipsen is the 2nd or 3rd best sprinter in the world, and has won the green Jersey before. He can climb and will go for it. He’s won 10 stages of the Tour in his career, and I would certainly expect him to add to the tally this year.

Van Der Poel will be strong and will go for stages, but I think he’ll be on lead out duties for Philipsen on flat days, and he does not have the best track record in July for a rider of his caliber. I don’t think he’ll contest intermediate sprints either.

Mads Pedersen probably cannot win pure bunch sprints, but he is extremely versatile and will go for breaks on mountain stages as well as contesting every intermediate. He should be in good form having not raced in a while either, and was on the upswing in the spring coming off of injury.

De Lie had his best-ever performance at the highest level in last year’s Tour, with a few top-5s on stages. This year he has been his usual inconsistent self, only performing in 2nd-tier races. I don’t expect much from him this summer.

Girmay miraculously won green and three stages in 2024, but that is not going to happen again. I think he should go for breakaways, and not bother with intermediate sprints.

Godon has always been underrated, and this year he’s been great on INEOS. He’ll be their man for climby-sprinty stages, but I don’t know if he’ll contest mass sprints or intermediates.

Kooij is a pure bunch sprinter, and it’s not impossible that he will win a stage. I don’t know if he’ll be interested in breakaways or intermediates, but he might as well try on the first few opportunities.

Mountains Jersey competitors: GC guys, Richard Carapaz, Lenny Martinez, Michael Storer… then it’s all a matter of who goes for it

The GC guys are at a bit of a disadvantage this year given the points structure, so I think it will go to a climber dedicated to the polka-dot jersey, unless Pogacar is feeling extra-greedy (he’s already won the mountains jersey three times, so he almost certainly could not care less).

Carapaz is a Grand Tour winner and multiple podium finisher. After some time off early in the year, he looked good in Suisse, finishing second on GC to Pogacar. He’ll probably make this his main target of the Tour and should be the favorite.

Martinez will also be chasing this without distraction, and he’s been excellent this year in stage races, even beating Jonas on the final stage of Paris-Nice, finishing top-five in GC of three WorldTour Stage races.

I don’t know if Storer will pursue this, but he just finished 7th in the Giro, so he’ll be in the running if he does.

We don’t really know who else will target this, but I expect Carapaz and Martinez to have a nice battle for it.

The White Jersey competitors are just Seixas, Del Toro, and Ayuso, with the same comments applicable as I made about their contention for overall GC.

Breakaway Stage Hunters I haven’t mentioned yet:

Climbers/Puncheurs: Matthias Skjelmose, Romain Gregoire, Kevin Vauquelin, Alex Baudin, Jordan Jegat, and 30 other guys…

Rouleurs/Misc Riders: Quinn Simmons, Jonas Abrahamsen, Magnus Cort, Fred Wright, Baptiste Viestroffer, and 30 other guys…

There is no point analyzing the palmares of the entire peloton (because this is the Tour de France, and almost everybody is incredibly strong, and we don’t know everybody’s form, and breakaways can be tactical, there are SO MANY guys who can win a stage) and I don’t feel like it. Also, a large percentage of these two cohorts are also possibly domestiques for sprinters and/or GC riders, so we don’t know who will get freedom and how often. For example, if UAE unchained Tim Wells or Florian Vermeersch on a rouleur breakaway stage, they could run roughshod over their breakaway companions, as Wellens did last year. But that is impossible to predict.

Stage-by-Stage Analysis:

Stage One (19.4km) (TTT):The 113th Tour de France kicks off with what I expect to be an anticlimactic team time trial honoring the 1992 Olympic Games, held in Barcelona. That’s not to say it won’t have some drama and could produce some gaps between the GC contenders, but I prefer a mass-start to commence the only event in bike racing that reaches a global audience. ASO, which is the organizer of the Tour de France, changed its rule for TTTs where instead of the 4th rider deciding the time awarded to the team, every rider in gets the actual time he finishes in. This changes the strategy for all teams with a GC rider, especially if the time trial finishes uphill. The obvious tactic then becomes one in which the big rouleur engines try to (somewhat) keep the climber out of the wind for most of the race (even if, in the current era, the best flat time trialists are mostly the best climbers anyway) and then the GC guy sprints up the last hill to get the best time possible. This course is mostly flat with a 700m 8% climb to finish, so the strategy will apply here. Despite this somehow being a hot take right now(most people seem to be picking Visma or INEOS) I’m going to take UAE and Pogacar to win and give the four-time champion the first yellow jersey. The squad is extremely strong and Pogi can grab eight seconds back on the final hill. Jonas cannot hang with that. The gaps between most of the GC guys will not be enormous, but you can expect Seixas to lose some time here on Decathlon. This TTT will not decide the race.

Stage Two (169km): A stage with a few easy hills before the Barcelona circuit used in the Volta a Catalunya, except this time they do only three circuits, but they finish on top of the climb, which is 1.6k at 8.8% with ramps above 15% at the top. This is a GC day, and MVDP cannot climb this with Pogacar, and probably several other GC guys too. I expect UAE to control the stage and Pogacar to launch a 1 or 2 minute burst at the finish and gap Jonas by 10 seconds, with a little more daylight to the rest of the GC guys.

Stage Three (196km): With almost 4,000 meters of elevation gain, the Tour hits the Pyrenees quite early, but this isn’t the hardest mountain stage. There are easy, but long, climbs involved, before the finish is about a mile at 7%. Pogcar can win this if he wants, but the consensus among pundits is that a break will take this one because UAE won’t want to control such a long stage for minimal time gaps. I disagree, UAE have been aggressive early in the Tour in the past and greedy for stage wins, and they have the next two days off. They may take it easy, but I would say odds are they go for it here and Pogacar wins an uphill sprint with minimal gaps between the GC guys. The French journalists will be quite upset when the same rider crosses the line first on the first three stages, and the only thing stopping him from winning the entire first week was a bunch of sprint and breakaway stages (put in place by ASO on purpose to prevent this very thing).

Stage Four (182km): There is some serious climbing here, with a 7k 6% climb 30k from the finish and some rolling and downhill in the finale, this one looks like a breakaway. You will need to be a decent climber, but it’s not one for the Storers of the peloton. I’ll optimistically take Quinn Simmons for a 32k solo.

Stage Five (158km): There are some hills, but we should finally have a bunch sprint. Tim Merlier should take it.

Stage Six (186km): Back into the Pyrenees, the Tour de France hits the Aspin and Tourmalet before a gradual uphill (18.7km 3.7%) to the finish. The summit of the Tourmalet, which is 17.2k at 7.3 percent with the last third at over 9% up to 2,100m altitude, lies at 39k from the finish with no true flat ground after. Without much to do for the next several days, there is every reason the GC teams will march into battle here. UAE in particular is expected to go full-gas on the Tourmalet and try to isolate every other GC guy before Pogacar attacks. The battle for the breakaway will be biblical, because every team will want a satellite rider for the long false-flat finish. But I don’t think any team will get one in there, because they will all neutralize each other. Expect Pogacar to attack in the final 5k of the Tourmalet and attempt to go solo. If he gets away, and there is group two syndrome behind, the Tour will be over at the finish line. This is entirely possible, assuming Del Toro can follow Jonas and/or Seixas and whoever else. Will those guys pull full-gas with Pogacar’s teammate sitting on? Maybe, but we have to see. I see plenty of commentators thinking UAE will attack with Del Toro first on the Tourmalet or keep him in the select group to attack on the false-flat. This will not happen. Using him as an anchor after Pogi goes solo makes far more sense. I think Pogacar gains 60-90 seconds on everybody here, minimum, and wins another stage.

Stage Seven (175km): A flat sprint to give most of the peloton a rest. Merlier wins again.

Stage Eight (180km): Another flat sprint. For the sake of variety I’ll take Philipsen here.

Stage Nine (185km): With 3,200m+ (that’s exactly two miles for my American readers) vertical but no real mountains, this should be one for the breakaway. I’m going drop a hyrodgen bomb hot take and pick Baptiste Viestroffer to sneak away and win.

Stage Ten (166km): After the first rest day, the peloton heads into the sweltering Massif Central for slightly tone-down version of Stage Eleven in 2024, won by Jonas in a sprint against Pogacar. UAE will likely go for this one and mow down the breakaway with ease. There are half-dozen climbs in the finale steep enough to attack on, but I think Pogacar will take heed of last time and wait longer this year. The summit of Pertus lies at 14k from the finish, and at 4.3k/8.3% and steeper ramps at the top, it’s the logical place to attack with less risk than Puy Marie, where he went two years ago and was caught on Pertus. I’m expecting a Pogacar stage win with a margin of about 45-60 seconds.

Stage Eleven (161km): A bunch sprint, to be won in an upset by Olav Kooij.

Stage Twelve (179km): Another bunch sprint for Merlier to strike back.

Stage Thirteen (206km): Basically all flat except for warm-up climb and then a 9k/7% climb, the summit of which is 30k from the finish.This has to be a breakaway, but this climb is pretty hard. The Quinn Simmons and Jonas Abrahamsens of the world probably cannot survive this. But Magnus Cort might be able to. I’ll take the Danish champion in his last Tour.

Stage Fourteen (155km): Another upper-medium mountain stage, this time in the Vosges, with just shy of 4,000 altitude meters. This is Stage 20 of the 2023 Tour de France, won by Pogacar in an uphill sprint. Unless he drops everybody on the final climb before the plateau, which is entirely possible, I’d expect the same scenario again. Unless UAE decides to gift this one to a breakaway, because most of the next week should be GC days, in which case I’ll pick Carapaz and hedge my bets.

Stage Fifteen (184km): Finally a real mountain stage after two weeks, the Tour de France visits the Plateau de Solaison, which is a vicious 11.3k/9.1%. The stage also has 4,000m climbing, but notably the third-to-last climb is 4.6k/11.1%, followed by a descent, short 8.1% climb, shallow descent, short valley, then Solaison. However, because the finale is so hard, I think the GC guys will wait for Solaison and Pogacar will drop everybody.

Stage Sixteen (26.1km): After the second rest day comes the only individual time trial, a course with a shallow climb, shallow descent, then about 10k of mostly flat. Of course, ASO needs to make TTing great again and put at least two 40k ITTs back in the Tour, but here we are. Remco is the narrow favorite above Pogacar here, and I think he’ll take it. The GC gaps will likely not be huge, but I think Pogi will finish second and take 30 seconds on Jonas and Seixas.

Stage Seventeen (175km): A stage with over 2,300m climbing and some hills of significance in the beginning, but a mostly-flat finish, this will probably be the final bunch sprint. I’ll go Mads Pedersen because there is a shallow hill near the finish.

Stage Eighteen (185km): The Tour de France finally enters the Alps. Somehow this stage has 3,944 meters of vertical, but it looks pretty easy before the soft uphill finish at 7.1k/6.7%. The Tour used this finish in 2020, with Primoz Roglic outsprinting Pogacar on Stage Four. If this was in the first week, I’d expect UAE to control. But if Pogi is already sitting on six stage wins and a healthy GC lead, and big Alpine days to come, they probably won’t. For the breakaway, I’ll go with Storer, as he won on a similar finish in Paris-Nice last year from a break.

Stage Nineteen (128km): There are some light climbs, but this one is all about Alpe d’Huez and whether Pogacar and/or Jonas can break Marco Pantani’s legendary record on the most famous climb in cycling. Because the stage is pretty easy and short, and Pogacar is Pogacar, barring extreme heat, I think the record goes down. Another stage win for the GOAT.

Stage Twenty (171km): This is the Queen Stage, with over 5,600m of climbing the Alps including the Telegraph/Galibier combo in the middle of the stage. It’s a great stage design to incentivize attacks from long-range. The finish is pretty easy with some light rolling terrain on top of Alpe d’Huez, which is climbed from the other side. I really don’t know what will happen here. Based on previous Tours, Visma will throw everything at this stage and Jonas will try to attack on the Galibier to take back minutes, but tactics do not matter when Pogacar is simply far stronger. Anything can happen, but it’s pretty easy to imagine Visma mowing down the breakaway and then Pogacar simply sitting on before winning an uphill sprint to seal the Yellow Jersey.

Stage Twenty-One (133km): The non-traditional Champs-Elysees stage with Montmatre returns. The peloton hits the cobbled climb, which is about 1k/6%, three times, the final ascent coming 11k from the finish line, which is further than last year. That could mean this will be a sprint this time (last year was an all-out Classics war with Wout van Aert dropping Pogacar and winning solo). The final sprint often throws up some surprises, so I will pick Pedersen here.

Before I get to my predictions, we have to note that Europe has been experiencing a historic heatwave, and while the temperatures have calmed slightly, the forecast for the first week is mostly extremely hot (like 30-40C, or 90-100+F) again. That could affect the race a lot, with extreme weather protocols taken (I don’t know exactly what these are for heat) or unexpected collapses from top riders. Of course, everybody does extensive heat training now, but I don’t think anything can prepare a human being, especially a European, for endless days of hard cycling in that type of heat, especially paired with non-air-conditioned hotels (which I believe most or all of the hotels the Tour riders stay in are equipped with AC, but considering the recent debate on AC use between Americans and Europeans, I wouldn’t be surprised if some are not. And sleeping in 85+F temperatures day after day after cycling in 95+F would probably finish off even the most heat-adapted person). Let’s hope the weather isn’t as hot as predicted, and everybody has AC.

Jersey Winners:

Yellow Jersey: Tadej Pogacar

Green Jersey: Mads Pedersen

Polka-Dot Jersey: Richard Carapaz

White Jersey: Isaac del Toro

Final GC Top-10:

Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Isaac del Toro, Florian Lipowitz, Juan Ayuso, Thymen Arensman, Antonio Tiberi, Tobias Halland Johannessen, Cian Uijtdebroeks, Egan Bernal

Where are Paul Seixas and Remco Evenepoel? DNF sadly. I’ve changed my mind on Seixas. I’m absolutely hoping for the best for him, and with his ability, he could be the second-strongest for a week or two. But I think the third week will finish him off and he’ll abandon. Ditto for Remco, again. I think the heat and third week will be too much. Again, I hope I am wrong. Of course, this prediction can go by the wayside as soon as somebody crashes out, but this is just assuming everybody stays safe and healthy.

For everybody else, I have not picked anything too shocking, basically just ranked everybody based on their climbing ability and what I project their form will be like. Arensman is probably way higher than most commentators would place him, and Tiberi is a bit of a hot take as well. Can somebody I did not mention sneak in? Absolutely. I don’t think many people had Jordan Jegat and Ben Healy in the top 10 last year. Was Ben Healy the 9th-strongest climber last year? Nope, not even close. But breakaways make a big difference. He was also able to combine hunting stages and a stint in the yellow jersey with an eventual top-10, which is a rare feat indeed. We could see similar action this year from an unexpected name.

I believe the time gaps will be large, but perhaps not as large as last year when Pogacar put 32 minutes into 10th place Jegat. That’s not to say Pogacar won’t be stronger than ever, just that Egan Bernal has a lot more quality than Jegat and the course probably does not lend itself to such gargantuan chasms.

I think Pogacar wins this Tour by 4:30, about the same distance to 2nd as last year, and the climbing level of of both him and Jonas will be higher than it was in 2025. Solaison and Alpe d’Huez are prime candidates for historic performances. However, if it’s 40C every day, they won’t get to show their ability, which would be a shame.

Del Toro is the obvious final choice for the podium if Seixas abandons. He’s shown that he is far stronger than anyone else remaining, and he’s performed in a three-week race before. Being a teammate of the winner is an extra advantage, as he can mark rivals when Pogacar goes up the road. I see him fighting (and winning) a private battle with Lipowitz, Ayuso (and Remco and Seixas for the first two weeks).

As for the other jersey predictions:

Pedersen should be strong, can nab intermediate sprints and will fight to the end. If he wins the two stages as I predict, he has every chance to beat Philipsen for Green, who I believe will be his main competitor.

Carapaz is simply the best climber who will go for polka-dots, and was impressive in Switzerland. He should be able to handle Lenny.

Del Toro will win white almost by default if Seixas abandons and he stays upright.

So that’s that for my Preview of the 113th Tour de France. It’s hard to believe that it is already July again. It’s not my favorite month from a weather perspective, but it is from a cycling angle. It’s the one time of year that, despite the consensus belief that the weather is lovely, I don’t feel guilty sitting inside (in air conditioning, get with the times Europe) watching a bike race. Tomorrow is the Fourth, America’s 250th Birthday, and in October, my 31st. We both are washed up, but at least Le Grand Boucle still exists to distract from that painful fact.

Vive Le Tour.