American cyclists winning GC titles in European professional bike races are few and far between. So Brandon McNulty taking the Tour of Valencia – a hotly-contested (with a field including a Grand Tour winner in Jai Hindley) 2.Pro race at the beginning of the season – is a feat that needs to be analyzed. In this essay, I will examine McNulty’s training and racing in the 11 weeks leading up to the Volta, and some of his power data from the race itself.
As McNulty rides for UAE Team Emirates, and from the nature of his training program, one has to assume he is still coached by Inigo San Milan, a world-renowned exercise physiologist, cancer researcher, and performance coach. He became famous in part by being Tadej Pogacar’s coach when the Slovenian won the Tour de France twice, and in part when Zone 2 Training became the hottest topic in health and wellness in the summer of 2023. San Milan trains his athletes mostly with Zone 2 intensity as we will see from McNulty’s program.
We, as cycling nerds, are fortunate that McNulty shares most, if not all, of his training and races on Strava, and usually his power data with them. So we can get an excellent synopsis of how a top pro prepares for the beginning of his racing season, and what a power profile in an early-season race looks like.
McNulty did the bulk of this training block from his hometown of Phoenix, Arizona, which is an ideal place to do a lot of Z2 training because it is at a low elevation (which allows the rider to train at full intensity compared to altitude which reduces power output… there are debates raging about altitude training, and I’ll address that in a later post). In addition, most of the good roads around the outskirts of Phoenix are fairly flat. This offers the rider the ability to pedal away at a steady tempo for hours. Brandon only traveled to Europe (his base there is in Girona, Spain) a few days before the start of the Mallorca Challenge.
The first thing that sticks out to me about McNulty’s training, and by extrapolation, UAE’s as a whole, is that he seems to do a lower volume of total riding than I expected, especially in the off-season. In conventional cycling training wisdom, December would be the time to build up to a few 25-30 hour training weeks (that is a lot of time on the bike and a lot of training stress, but similar to the time spent riding during a week of a Grand Tour). McNulty averaged about 19 hours per week from December to early February, with no week over 21 hours with the exception of the race week, in which he barely surpassed that with 21 hours, 50 minutes. The other difference between what I expected to see and what McNulty actually did is that he did not really take any “down” week except the obvious taper week before the Mallorca Challenge (which was 11 hours). His lowest week aside from that was 15 hours, 38 minutes, and that could be forgiven as the week of Christmas and New Year’s Eve. So his training volume for over two months was very consistent.
The next thing that caught my eye, in the same vein, is that McNulty did not do a single “long” training ride (long for a WorldTour pro being considered at least 6 hours) in the build-up to the Volta. He did one 200km ride which took 5:42, and only one 5-hour ride. The rest of his training maxed out, in terms of duration, at 4.5 hours.
Finally, there was an utter dearth of traditional VO2 max training. I think long intervals (3-5 minutes) at 95-100 percent of maximum heart rate have died, and rightly so. The concept, as I understand it, was pioneered by Dr. Jack Daniels in the distance running world in the 1960s. But it’s based on faulty science and is often counterproductive in practice. I’ll expound (read: rant) more about that in a future essay. Anyways, McNulty barely did anything “anaerobic” besides a few over/under sessions and some 1 min reps. This makes sense as it is winter, but, amazingly, he was able to push the crazy numbers in the early races without igniting the powder keg of anaerobia to prepare. From that information, I conclude that he is going to do even better watts, especially on shorter efforts, as the season progresses and he gets closer to his true peak form.
But how does McNulty handle the intensity and length of a professional road race without doing the big volume expected of the top riders? Simply put, almost every ride he does is done at a higher intensity than most pros are riding for “normal” training. He rides in Z2 almost every day and even on the days of his quality sessions, he’s hitting Z2 for a few hours during the riding done before and after his intervals.
So what exactly was McNulty doing for his Z2 training? In short, he was riding at between 250 and 280 watts consistently (sometimes as high as 295 watts for the final hour-plus of his quality days) for between 1 and 4.5 hours, and also as the “warm-up” and “cool-down” for his interval work.
What exactly is Zone 2 intensity in a seven-zone cycling model? Well, it has many different definitions depending on who you ask (and not all people agree that seven zones is the optimal model). Anyways, Inigo argues that it is a bit harder than is commonly preached(especially in the running community); it should be just a bit difficult to breathe and talk comfortably at Z2 effort. McNulty’s training data certainly supports that conclusion. Basically, my definition is that top-end Z2 training should be done at around 75-78 percent of one’s maximum heart rate if one does not have access to a lactate meter. The lactate figure should be 1.7-1.9mmol according to San Milan. For a well-trained athlete, that is not “easy” by any stretch of the imagination when done for multiple hours. For an untrained or poorly-trained athlete, that sort of intensity would not be maintainable for much more than 20 minutes without the athlete either blowing up or the lactate figure showing an inflection point (this implies that they have bumped into Z3 or higher, which is too hard to go at for hours on end unless you are racing a marathon or doing a short pro bike race. Either way, not sustainable for very long training sessions.) San Milan’s guideline for Z2 is that it ought to be the intensity a (trained) athlete could hold for 4 hours in a race. Obviously, this is far different for professional cyclists, who could probably push Z2 intensity for 8 hours if they needed to.
Back to McNulty, the average cyclist might consider it absolutely unbelievable that a 69-kilogram cyclist can pump out 270 or more watts, or about 4 watts per kilogram, for 4-plus hours at a low heart rate (and more importantly, its implied low blood lactate level). But two things need to be considered here.
One is that professional athletes, in any sport, play the game utterly differently than even sub-elite athletes. So comparing one’s own power data to a World Tour pro, especially one capable of winning major races, is a silly thought experiment. Their abilities are unfathomable to us mortals.
The other fact is that McNulty is not simply going out there and smashing the pedals without a strict plan for each day; in fact, just about every minute of every ride would have been ordered based on his power meter. There might still be some WorldTour teams that continue to just hammer away often, but UAE under the direction of Inigo is not one of them. McNulty’s power zones will have been carefully calculated in a lab based on lactate figures with the corresponding heart rate values (for use when McNulty is riding without lactate testing handy, which would be all of his training in Arizona).
So aside from doing big numbers for Z2 training, what is McNulty doing for quality in the off-season? The short answer is a massive volume of long Z3 intervals and a tiny percentage of Z6 in over/unders. This is pretty standard base training for cyclists; I’ve noticed riders on other teams doing similar sessions. I’m going to cherry-pick some rides to show how his fitness progressed from late November into the new year and the lead-in to his races.
I also want to note that it appears he did about once per week Z1 riding (190-230 watts) for just an hour or two, which is a solid plan to increase fat-burning capabilities and generally not overdo it. He also took rest days almost every week to help absorb all of the hard training.
His first ride back was on November 18, and McNulty did 240 watts for 1 hour, 38 minutes. That was the lowest Z2 wattage I saw in his training block, which of course makes sense given he had just taken over two weeks off. He quickly jumped up in form.
His first interval session since starting up again after his break in the late fall was on November 21. He did 3 hours including 6×4 minutes/4 minutes easy averaging about 350 watts. That is Z3 when McNulty is in top shape, but after a break, that is probably Z4. 6×4 minutes at threshold is a pretty standard workout for a runner. For a professional cyclist, it is a decent introductory workout.
On November 26, McNulty did 3 hours with 3×10 minutes on 4 and 3 minutes of recovery spinning, averaging about 325 watts. Importantly, though, after he finished the 3×10, his last hour was done at 296 watts (before a short 6-minute cool down under 200 watts), which is probably sneaking into Z3 at that time of year and for that duration.
On December 1, he started to really ramp things up: 3 hours at an average of 279 watts including 2x48ish minutes at about 310 watts; not particularly high watts for him for Z3 but long intervals. His average heart rate on the intervals was a minimal 144 and 147 (I do not know his max HR but mid-140s seems very low for a Z3 interval). So he was already pretty fit after just 10 days of riding. It should also be considered that averaging 279 watts burns more than 1,000 kilojoules per hour, so he did over 3,000 on this ride in short order. 3,000 is about the number of KJ one would burn in a normal 160km flat sprint stage in a Grand Tour. To get that amount of work done in 3 hours solo is both impressive and smart, pretty specific training.
On December 5, he did 5×10 minutes with 3-5 minutes recovery hitting between 320 and 350 watts for the intervals. Then after 20 minutes, he did a 63-minute effort at 321 watts. You can see the quick improvement in power on the longer intervals; 10 watts for 13 minutes longer than four days prior. And he probably was not working too hard to do 320 for an hour.
On December 11, McNulty did 3:46 with another 3x45ish minutes at 310 watts each. He continued to slowly build up the volume of Z3 work.
On December 19, he repeated the exact same ride. That shows some patience and discipline to me. As an athlete, I would have tried to push a few more watts just to prove to myself I was getting fitter. But McNulty was content to do 310 watts again. “Trust the process” is a common refrain in the endurance sports community. And McNulty was. I’m sure it helps to have a coach like Inigo.
December 23 he went for a big ride, doing the aforementioned 200-kilometer ride in 5:42, just cruising Z2 the whole way for 261 avg. power and over 5,300 kilojoules. I hope he ate a big dinner after that.
The next day, he repeated the 11th’s session yet again within a slightly longer ride but hid his power.
On December 29th, Brandon did some over/unders within a short 2-hour ride, but again hid his power. The over/unders were 40/20s and 30/30s in 8:00 blocks. I would assume he was doing some solid numbers for December if he elected to conceal his data.
The next day, he once again did 3×45 minutes but this time hit 323, 329, 332 again at a low heart rate. This was within a 4.5-hour/100-mile (161km) ride in which he averaged 279 watts overall and burnt through 4,630 kilojoules. He also did a 1-ish minute effort around 650 watts towards the end of the ride, which I think he just does for fun sometimes because there is a 60-ish-second climb (if you’re doing 10 w/kg) towards the end of his route that he rides most days. 1 minute at 650 is a nice opener for him at this time of year, not enough to go deep into the anaerobic hole, but enough to introduce some punch to the bigger muscles in the legs.
January 3rd he did a tough session with 3 hours including some over/unders with 2×20 minute blocks. He rode 4 minutes at approximately threshold, perhaps just under (400-425 watts) and then 1 minute at about 500 watts. That was repeated 4 times continuously to get 20 minutes, and the whole cycle was done twice. In his second 20 minute-block, he averaged 438 watts, which is really nice work with a 500+watt anaerobic surge thrown in 4 times. This showed some really strong form to me for early January.
On January 4th, he went out for 4 hours and did 3×45 yet again, hitting around 320 for each interval but averaging 289 watts for the entire 4-plus hours.
Just two days later, McNulty did 3×10 minutes at 454, 458, 480 with about 10 minutes easy in between. That is quite a high wattage for 10-minute reps, but I have to assume the instructions were to hit threshold (Z4) and his heart rate never went over 180, usually sitting in the mid-170s. Again, without seeing max HR and lactate data, it is impossible to know what McNulty’s true Functional Threshold Power is. I doubt it’s above 450 though; that would be over 6.5 w/kg, higher than most, if not all (?) non-EPO era Tour de France winners’ FTP, if I know anything about power data. Nonetheless, this was an extremely impressive session.
January 12, McNulty did 3×45 AGAIN but this time in the context of a 97-mile ride in just over 4 hours for an average speed of 23.4 miles per hour (38 kilometers per hour). That makes sense, given his average power for the entire ride was an insane 304 watts (destroying 4,543 kilojoules) at just 140bpm. His 45-minute reps were chill, in the 320s to 330s, but he hammered the final 75 minutes at an average of 295 watts (by this point in his training, that could have been upper Z2).
The day after that monstrosity, he did 3 hours in Z2 except for 6×1 minute reps at around 700+ watts each with full recovery in between. Pushing 10 w/kg for 60 seconds is fairly standard at McNulty’s level; you could probably find plenty of Category 2 guys in America doing that sort of power-to-weight for a one-off, fresh effort. In fact, I know a Cat 3 rider who can definitely do 10w/kg for a minute. He’s four tiers down from even being a Domestic Pro, which is below European Pro, which is below 2.Pro race winner, etc… However, McNulty’s effort is different. Pushing slightly over 10 watts per kilo 6 times with the “recovery” in between at 260+ watts and in the context of a 3-hour ride is part of what separates a future big champion like Brandon from a domestic amateur in the U.S.
On the 18th, he did 3 hours with 3×6 minute over/under blocks but hid his power. This was his last tune-up before his first race, and the numbers must have been strong again. His heart rate got pretty high compared to the rest of the off-season, maxing at 185.
On January 24th, he opened his season on Mallorca with Trofeo Calvia. His average power for the race was 311 watts for 3 hours, 49 minutes. That of course includes a lot of coasting and soft-pedaling (and sprinting). His best effort was probably 12:30 at 445 watts but he also had two hours over 360 watts (which included descents). That, for a climber, is serious work. McNulty took third in the race after cramping in the finale.
After an easy spin, he raced again on the 26th at the Trofeo Serra Tramuntana. He took third again after another duel with Aleksandr Vlasov, but both were outsprinted by Lennert Van Eetfelt. McNulty’s average power in the race was 305 watts for 3:37, which included a 31-minute effort at 420 and a 10-second sprint over 1,100 watts that was only good enough for the bronze medal.
The next day was his final race of the Mallorca Challenge in the Trofeo Pollenca – Port d’Andratx. In this race his power meter dropped out about halfway through, so we don’t know what his output was to finish seventh in a small group that came to the line.
The Volta began on January 31 with a breakaway day. McNulty finished in the bunch but lost over a minute to the two Italians up the road. The day was a bit easier than a hilly day often is; McNulty averaged 268 watts for 4 hours, 6 minutes. But the peloton hit the final climb pretty hard with McNulty having to do 449 watts for over 10 minutes.
Stage Two was 263 watts for 3:48:37. McNulty finished safely in the peloton after Matej Mohoric soloed away on the final descent.
Stage Three was a sprint won by Jonathan Milan. Our protagonist did a fairly easy 236 watts for 3 hours, 42 minutes to again cruise in with the bunch.
Stage Four was the Queen Stage with 3,300 meters of climbing including a brutal final fake-news ramp. For the entire race, McNulty averaged 291 watts for 4 hours, 9 minutes. That includes multiple bigger efforts on the hills leading into the final climb. His average power before the final climb was 278 for 3:50 or about 4,000 KJ of work. The final climb was a tale of two rampas inhumanas. The first section was 1.6 kilometers at 13.8 percent. McNulty did that with the leading group in about 6:30 with an average power of 513 watts (7.4 w/kg). That is a crazy fast start! Vlasov had already attacked and only McNulty and Santiago Buitrago could follow for any duration. McNulty would throw in an attack on the false-flat section of the climb with a 1,252-watt bomb and sneak away with the lead. But there was another excuciatingly long and steep pitch to the finish line. McNulty did good power again, 467 for 6 more minutes (6.8 w/kg) and held a 12-second gap all the way to the line to take the victory and the GC lead. For the whole climb, he averaged 471 watts for just over 16 minutes (also 6.8 w/kg) including the false flat section. I should note, too, that the run-in to the climb demanded some serious power just to get positioned in the peloton. McNulty averaged 440 watts for 3:13 including multiple peaks of around 1,000 watts before the climb even started! So he pushed 6.8 for 16 without even being fresh. That is Grand Tour podium content, and it backs up his efforts in training.
This is the stage that got people talking about the 25-year-old American as a seriously competitive climber. I hate to say I told ya so. The w/kg estimates on Twitter were lower than his power meter displayed, but that is probably because he had no drafting and attacked hard on the false-flat section, keeping the watts mostly high when in a group with a teammate, they would have plummeted for a bit.
Stage Five was the short (93km) final stage of the race with a 5k, 9.2 percent climb in the middle of the day. The stage took just 128 minutes to complete with breakaway hero Will Barta of the United States surviving to take his first pro win. McNulty hid his power for this stage, but w/kg estimates from the Twitterati had the main climb at around 6.5 w/kg for just over 15 minutes for the peloton. Vlasov attacked once without conviction and McNulty covered it easily. It’s safe to say that the climb was not ridden full-gas. The big group would come to the finish in Barta’s wake and McNulty finished safely to wrap up the GC title of the Volta, his biggest UCI points haul thus far in his career.
So that’s how Brandon McNulty took his first 2.Pro GC crown, and why he will continue to be competitive during this young season. He might be in the running for a podium at Paris-Nice. But let’s see how the UAE Tour goes first. And, UAE Team Emirates must send him to the Giro d’Italia. I’m begging them.
I’ll finish with a brief discussion of another UAE rider. To me, the obvious question after reviewing McNulty’s power data is: What sort of power is Tadej Pogacar – who has won exactly seven times the number of professional races McNulty has – pushing in training? He’s so ungodly good; he’s obviously doing more power at a slightly lower weight than McNulty. But how much more power? What does it take to win 5 Monuments, 2 Tours de France, and 63 total bike races in just five years with mainly Z2 and Z3 training? What does he hit in those over/unders? What is his max 20-minute wattage at 66kg? We may find out one day. But Pogi is reluctant to share data nowadays after the (utterly unfounded) doping accusations in the wake of his 2020 and 2021 Tour de France victories. I don’t blame him.
I will just make one speculation. Based on his projected FTP from verified climbing performances in races, Pogacar’s Z2 training is probably above 300 watts. That would be more than 4.5 watts per kilogram. The vast majority of cyclists will never sniff 4.5 w/kg for their FTP. Meanwhile, Pogi is probably producing that sort of effort for 4 hours in Z2 on a daily basis. And that, my friends, is one of the most insane feats of human performance I have ever imagined.
There will be more power analyses coming on this blog.
Until then,
Ciao.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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