It’s almost that time of year again. The 112th Tour de France commences July 5 in Lille. With the final team (INEOS Grenadiers) releasing its squad for this year’s edition, the start list is complete and it’s time to publish this piece.
I’ll start by previewing each stage and picking a winner for each one, doing a bit of race dynamic analysis as I go, before predicting each jersey winner, and the final GC top ten.
Stage One: Lille-Lille (184.9km): The Tour is going back to a flat sprint start, which is probably a bad idea for rider safety. This first week is a a nightmare for rider trying not to crash (the entire peloton) because the roads in the north of France are apparently quite dangerous and every rider will be fresh and fighting for every corner. This stage has a few bumps in the middle, but it will be a bunch sprint. I’ll take Jonathan Milan to win and take the first yellow jersey.
Stage Two: Lauwin-Planque-Boulonge-sur-mer (209.1km): Plenty of hills throughout most of the stage, a good distance, and an uphill finish create an interesting opportunity for a breakaway. I would be quite surprised if a break succeeded, however, as this stage looks tailored to Mathieu van der Poel’s abilities, I expect his team to control the stage and him to win an uphill sprint. I think the sprinters will lose time and MVDP claim yellow.
Stage Three: Valenciannes-Dunkerque (178.3km): An almost pancake-flat sprint stage. I’ll take Philipsen to win.
Stage Four: Amiens Metropole-Rouen (174.2km): The stage is pretty much flat for 124km before a series of short hills in the final 50k with a slight uphill kick to line. The last real climb is .8km at 9.4 percent, just enough to create gaps, but with the accumulated climbing in the hour before it, there will be plenty of guys out the back, including, I expect, all of the top sprinters. It’ll be another win for MVDP.
Stage Five: Caen-Caen (33km): The most decisive GC stage of the first week is a flat, non-technical time trial in Normandy. This is a dream scenario for former Belgian wunderkind Remco Evenepoel, who, assuming no crashes, will likely take the yellow jersey on this stage for the first time in his already impressive career. The Next Eddy Merckx will have finally ascended to the pinnacle of the sport, leading the biggest cycling race on Earth. Remco is the favorite to win the stage ahead of Filippo Ganna, and I expect him to gain 30-40 seconds on Pogacar and 40-60 seconds on Vingegaard.
Stage Six: Bayeux-Vire Normandie (201.5km): Starting from the origin of the Bayeux Tapestry (part of which depicts the Norman Conquest of England in 1066), one of the most iconic pieces of art of Medieval Europe, we have another very intriguing and brutal, sketchy stage in the North of France. This stage contains nearly 3,000 meters of elevation gain without going above 322m altitude the entire race. It’s never flat, and I would guess, never straight. The most decisive climb is the final one, at 1.2km/7.1 percent, cresting 5k from the line. After a descent, the finish is uphill (looking to be about 7 percent also) but not categorized. This is Amstel Gold Race in Normandy with 50 fewer kilometers. In a one-day race, Pogacar is the favorite here. In a Grand Tour first week, MVDP is the favorite if his team is able to control. But that is easier said than done, and this is one stage in the first week I feel the breakaway might have a shot at. But I’ll pick MVDP in what will probably be his final chance this Tour.
Stage Seven: Saint-Malo-Mur de Bretagne (Guerledan) (197km): Just another terrifying day in the Tour de France. This stage is less hilly than the day before, but the finale is harder, with the usual double ascent of the Mur de Bretagne (Wall of Brittany for Anglophones), last included in the 2021 Tour de France. It was here that van der Poel put in his most legendary performance in the Tour de France, attacking on the penultimate ascent for bonus seconds then obliterating the field again on the finishing pitch to win his only career TDF stage and take the Maillot Jaune just weeks after the death of his grandfather Raymond Poulidor. Clearly, this finish suits MVDP. But times have changed, or have they? Well, it was a young Tadej Pogacar who sprinted to second place on this hill four years ago, outkicking Primoz Roglic in what would have been a harbinger of things to come later in that Tour, had Roglic not crashed into a ditch a few days later (I believe Pogi would have thrashed Roglic in that Tour had the elder Slovenian stayed upright). Pogacar was already the reigning TDF champion and he has only improved every year since. MVDP has also improved, but not at the same rate, and Pogi’s rate of gain on 3-5 minute climbs, which this Mur is, has been nuclear. He’s the best puncheur in the world and with two ascents, he’s my pick to dust off the peloton and win his first stage of the 2025 Tour de France. This would be his 100th career victory, a staggering accomplishment for a 26-year-old GC rider. MVDP should win a group sprint for 2nd.
Stage Eight: Saint-Meen-Le Grand-Laval (Espace Mayenne) (171.4km): The TTers/puncheurs/GC men finally get a day off as the peloton tackles another sprint stage with an uphill drag to the line. In actuality, no one has any semblance of a day off on a stage like this. Everyone will be nervous and aggressive and there can always be wind in this region. Assuming no major echelon carnage, I’ll take Merlier to even the score between the big three sprinters at one apiece.
Stage Nine: Chinon-Chateauroux (174.1km) Many of these stages are almost exactly the same length. This is a carbon copy of stage eight; a nervous peloton fighting for every corner and potential for echelons. The race finishes in a town now nicknamed in honor of Mark Cavendish, who won every time the Tour finished there in his career. A flat finish should give Milan another dub.
Stage Ten: Ennezat-Le Mont-Dore Puy de Sancy (165.3km): The French have extended the first week to ten stages to ensure there was a race day on Bastille Day, and this stage should be an absolute banger. The only mountain stage of the first week finishes at the highest mountain in the Massif Central, though not near the top. As is typical of the Massif Central stages, the organizers have packed a staggering 4,307 meters of elevation gain into 165k. That’s quite a potent ratio of vertical per kilometer. For my American readers, that’s over 14,000 feet in just over 100 miles. It’s a higher ratio than some of the hardest long mountain stages in some grand tours.There are no climbs longer than 5k and none steeper than 7 percen. But as you probably assume, there is not a meter of flat road. Does that mean it’s harder than an Alpine Queen Stage? That depends how it is raced. And some riders cope well with relentless 5-12 minute efforts with short breaks instead of 3×45 climb at altitude. So we will see. Of course, the opportunity is there for ruthless, full-gas riding from the gun from both breakaway hopefuls and GC riders. And I do indeed expect that to play out. There are three dozen breakaway riders who can win this stage. But if we have learned anything from the last few Tours, it’s that UAE and Visma can dictate every stage if they choose. There could 20 incredibly strong climbers going absolutely bonkers for three hours in the hills and UAE would still pull it back without any help (if you need evidence of this, just rewatch the 2024 Il Lombardia). And I’m betting on them to ride for a Pogacar stage win. He’s the heavy favorite to not only win, but gain time on his rivals, should the GC group contest the win. And with a rest day the next day, his teammates can afford to go full in chasing a breakaway. UAE should break French hearts, destroy the breakaway, and Pogacar should attack on the penultimate climb to gain as much time as possible. If he did not get the yellow jersey on the Mur de Bretagne (it will be quite tight with Remco) he will claim it here.
Stage Eleven: Toulouse-Toulouse (156.8km): After the first rest day, the peloton heads towards the Pyrenees with a stage that looks quite hilly on paper, but most of them are not steep. However, the last two are 1.4km/6.9% and .8km/9.8%, cresting 10k from the finish line. The last 8k are pan flat. I think that’s too much room for a solo attacker or small group to go away, but I think the final climb is hard enough for a stroke of genius from Alpecin to put the heavier sprinters to the sword. I think they drop Milan and Merlier and Philipsen wins from a reduced group.
Stage Twelve: Auch-Huatacam (180.6km) Finally we arrive at a real mountain stage with the first battle of the Pyrenean war commencing on one of the most legendary climbs in the pantheon of Tour de France mountains, the scene of the greatest climbing performance of all time by Bjarne Riis in the 1996 Tour de France*, the location of Jonas Vingegaard sealing the deal over the seemingly impenetrable Tadej Pogacar in the 2022 Tour, among other iconic images… Hautacam.(*until Plateau de Beille 2024). From the moment the 2025 Tour’s route was announced in October, there has been only possible outcome here: the Cannibal 2.0, Pogacar, eviscerating Jonas Vingegaard (and some of his demons), and doing the new greatest performance ever. I would bet most of my life savings on UAE controlling this stage and Pogacar putting at least 45 seconds and perhaps 90 or more into Jonas. The rest of the field will not be in the same area code. If there is one thing about Pogacar, it’s that behind his outward demeanor of joviality and seeming indifference to outcomes, especially in the Tour de France hides a savage and rampant killer, a man hell-bent on destruction, and on this stage, revenge. He will get it. The Tour will be all-but-finished on the evening of July 17.
Stage Thirteen: Loudenvielle-Peyragudes (10.9km) (ITT): The much-discussed mountain time trial up Peyragudes should be another dominant watts/kg display by Tadej Pogacar. Will he do the best climbing performance ever on a 20-minute climb here? Probably. I expect a 30-45 second gap on Jonas and a lot more on everybody else.
Stage Fourteen: Pau-Luchon Superbagneres (182.6km): 5,000 meters of elevation for the third leg of the Pyrenean Trifecta is nothing to scoff at. After an 80k false-flat uphill, the Tourmalet is 19k/7.4%. That’s hard on paper, but the GC guys are so good it doesn’t really affect them. The main question is whether the breakaway can gain enough time on the flat and up this giant to have a shot to survive on the final climb. And I’m going to postulate that no, they will not. I think this stage plays out just like Plateau de Beille last year: Visma pull with everything all day to try to tire out Pogi in a desperate attempt to get Jonas back into yellow, catches the breakaway, and Pogacar simply crushes Jonas on the final climb and wins his fifth stage. I’m not expecting historic watts on Superbagneres, because it will be a hard stage beforehand, and Pogi will just do what he needs to do to win.
Stage Fifteen: Muret-Carcassonne (169.3km): ASO had to give the breakaway guys something, so here is one of the few almost-guaranteed days a break wins. The fight to get into that winning break will be biblical. The wily old Norwegian Magnus Cort will nab this one with a lot of help from his teammate Jonas Abrahamsen in the breakaway.
Stage Sixteen: Montpelier-Mont Ventoux (171.5km): The Giant of Provence looms, as it always does, over the Tour as the hardest climb in this year’s edition. Ventoux is categorized at 15.6km/8.7%, though there is a long false-flat drag before that. The first 9k of the categorized section to Chalet Reynard are brutal, averaging well over 9%. The 150k before the climb is also not totally flat, but the lumps aren’t enough to affect the race. As with Superbagneres, the only question is whether Pogacar or the breakaway win the stage. And since Ventoux is one of the climbs Jonas dropped Pogacar (in the 2021 TDF, though it was of no consequence) I expect the Slovenian to want to put this to rights and win in yellow atop a legendary mountain. That would be six stages with five remaining, and the race will not have even visited the Alps yet.
Stage Seventeen: Bollene-Valence (160.4km) A transition stage with a few lumps, this could be one for a well-organized, strong breakaway, particularly if one or more of the big sprinters have left the race at this point (I don’t imagine Merlier, and perhaps not Milan, will survive the time cuts on Superbagneres). I’ll pick Filippo Ganna to win with a solo attack out of a rouleur breakaway and finally complete his Grand Tour trilogy.
Stage Eighteen: Vif-Courchevel Col de la Loze (171.5km): Finally into the most beautiful region of France, the Alps for the Queen Stage. WIth 5,642 meters of elevation gain in three monster mountains and a finish above 2,300 meters altitude, is obviously a tough one. Loze was the climb on which Jonas finished crushing Pogi’s dreams of reclaiming the Tour de France in 2023, putting six minutes into the Slovenian after the television broadcast aired a clip of a white-faced Pogacar gasping into the team radio: “I’m gone, I’m dead”. We know what this means for this year’s race. UAE on the front all day, putting to bed any chance of a French breakaway success, and thus an emphatic seventh stage win for the rampaging Slovenian.
Stage Nineteen: Albertville-La Plagne (129.9km): Round two in the Alps is short but contains three mountain passes with over 4,600m of climbing and a long conclusion up La Plagne, which is 19.3km at 7.2 percent. That’s like a 50-53 minute climb for these guys (I’m guessing, without doing the calculations). This is the mountain stage I’m least confident in Pogacar winning. I do wonder if Mercxk’s record of eight stages in one Tour will be in the back of his mind at this point, but even more likely will be the social and traditional media uproar over seven stage wins and a 10-minute lead for a GC rider and the usual doping furor. Usually, Pogacar has imperiously continued to dominate in the face of these envious and unfounded accusations. But it could be far worse at this point than ever before. My answer is that I do not know what will happen on this stage, but I will pick a breakaway after Visma wisely gives up the ghost. I have to go for the pocket rocket Lenny Martinez to get France’s first stage win of this Tour.
Stage Twenty: Nantua-Pontarlier (184.2km): With 2,900m vertical and a lot of relatively easy climbs all day, most teams in the peloton with nothing to show for three weeks into the biggest race (by a factor of five or more to one) of the year for their sponsors, there will never, in the history of cycling, be a more brutal battle for the breakaway and less of a chance for a team to control the race. I mean, if 18 or 20 or even 21 or 22 (Remco’s and Jonas’s teams included) out of 23 teams are not sending hell up the road until something sticks, their management should be fired. UAE is the only team with a an excuse to not attack, and even then I believe Pogi’s domestiques will try to get into the breakaway too. This is a big lottery, the biggest of them all I believe. There are 50-75 riders who could win this one, but I am going to pick arguably the best breakaway rider of 2025 for this terrain: Ivan Romeo of Movistar. He’s both a wily coyote and brutally strong. And it will be a nice moment for the Spanish team.
Stage Twenty-One: Mantes-La-Ville-Paris (Champs-Elysees) (132.2km): The processional finish on the most finish street in the world is no more, as the Tour has added a triple ascent of the Montmartre climb used in the 2024 Paris Olympic Road Race won by Remco Evenepoel. The climb is not too hard (1km/4.8%) though it contains a steeper section and is cobbled. It is the circuit that races questions for safety of riders on the final day. Will the GC guys have to take risks? I don’t know what will happen, but the attackers finally have a real chance to thwart the sprinters in Paris this year. In the end, my prediction is a victory for Philipsen in a slightly-reduced group and no changes on GC.
Now it is time for the jersey predictions:
Youth: Remco Evenepoel. The reigning winner of this jersey was outdone at the Dauphine by Florian Lipowitz, but he will be a lot stronger in July, as he was last Tour compared to the Dauphine. He’ll win this one handily.
KOM: Tadej Pogacar will simply win too many stage finishes, many of which, despite not offering double points as they used to, are HC or Category One climbs that give out a lot of points, to not claim the polka-dots a gain.
Points: Tadej Pogacar will take this one for the first time in his career because of the points structure and his plethora of stage wins and high placings.
GC: Tadej Pogacar wins his fourth Tour de France.
GC Top Ten: 1). Tadej Pogacar 2). Jonas Vingegaard 3). Joao Almeida 4). Remco Evenepoel 5). Florian Lipowitz 6). Matteo Jorgenson 7). Tobias Halland Johannessen 8). Santiago Buitrago 9). Adam Yates 10). Mattias Skjelmose
(Primoz Roglic crashes out in the first week, sadly).
Gargantuan gaps in the top ten.
OK, an abrupt conclusion but I’m not going to explain the thought process behind every pick (log onto X and follow me for quick thoughts here and there)
Three days to go.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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