The final Spring Classic on the calendar, the end of Ardennes Week, the fourth Monument of the season, La Doyenne (The Old Lady, named as such because it is the oldest of the five Monuments), the 111th Liege-Bastogne-Liege is, more or less like every year, a hard 252-kilometer extremely hilly battle in Wallonia (the French-speaking region of Belgium). This is also a race that lives up to its name, starting in Liege, going south to Bastogne, and then taking a much more difficult route through the Ardennes back to Liege for the finish.
Liege is often the biggest target of the spring for GC riders who will participate in the Tour de France (and now, we’ve seen it can also be ridden at the highest level by climbers targeting the Giro d’Italia), as it is the only classic most of them can be competitive in due to its difficulty.
However, in the post-COVID era, we now have a roster of top GC riders (the Big Four) who are also the best puncheurs (the skill needed for the other Ardennes races, Fleche Wallonne and Amstel Gold Race, which contain less total climbing than Liege. Punch is also important in Liege, as most of the climbs are relatively short for WorldTour champions, but the finale, which I will explain in detail shortly, contains some quite steep pitches.
Another necessary ability for victory in Liege is fatigue resistance as this is about a 6,000-kilojoule effort for even the lightweight riders. There are over 4,300 meters of total elevation gain, with the harder climbing concentrated in the final 100k.
But let’s examine the route in detail before discussing the contenders, race dynamics, and finally, as usual, I’ll make some predictions.
As mentioned, according to ProCyclingStats.com, this race is 252k with 4,365 meters of climbing. There are 11 classified climbs, nine of which come thick and fast in the final 95k. The longest is the Col du Rosier, but ironically, this is one of the easiest climbs in the race. It’s a steady 4.5k at 5.7 percent, and it crest with 60k left in the race. The hardest climb might be the Stockeu (1k/12%, with wickedly steep ramps), but as this one finishes with still 80k to go, we don’t see modern cyclists making race-winning attacks where Eddy Merckx used to.
The decisive climbs are La Redoute (1.6k/8.8%) which crests 34k from the finish (this is where the winning move has come the last three editions of the race), and Roche aux Faucons (1.3k/11%) which peaks with 14k to ride. Then there is a false-flat uphill before a descent and a flat 2-ishk to the end.
There is also a climb (Forges–1.3k/7.7%) between Redoute and Roche aux Faucons which is not easy, which makes it easier for solo moves to stay away.
The contenders (in order of my hierarchy):
Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock, Mattias SKjelmose, Ben Healy, Enric Mas, Santiago Buitrago, Giulio Cicconne, Romain Bardet
There are dozen or more third-tier riders that could all sneak a podium here, but I cannot list the entire field.
Pogacar, the defending champion just won Fleche Wallonne in imperious fashion this morning (on the East Coast of the United States) and is better than ever this spring. His winning margin in Fleche (10 seconds) is a record in modern cycling. He has not dominated the peloton with quite the same ease he did last year, losing three races already (the horror), but with the exception of Amstel Gold Race (which he lost in a sprint to Skjelmose after going solo too early and being chased down by Remco) those races did not suit him (Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix, both of which he podiumed anyway). He has won six races in total, including a Monument (Ronde van Vlaanderen) and has a healthy lead in the PCS season ranking for the fifth year in a row. Interestingly, Liege is a race that is as close to his kryptonite as any race with anywhere near this much climbing. He arguably should have four or five victories in this race already, yet he only has two. In 2020, the COVID edition following his maiden Tour de France victory in the fall, he was chopped in the final sprint by Julian Alaphilippe and finished fourth (promoted to third after the Frenchman was relegated. Could Pogi have won this edition? We will never know. In 2021, he won a six-up sprint. In 2022, he DNSed the race after the death of his mother-in-law. In 2023, he crashed early in the race and fractured his wrist. And in 2024, he won with a 34k solo by nearly two minutes. He will have in the back of his mind the record for most victories in Liege, held by Eddy Merckx at five. Pogacar starts this year as massive favorite.
Remco has won this race twice, but never beaten Pogacar fair-and-square. That is highly unlikely to change this year, but he is clearly the second-strongest rider here, despite looking shaky at Fleche (which does not really suit him). This will only be his fourth race day in 2025, having sustained serious injuries in a training crash in the winter. His talent level and improvement trajectory is unreal. He only started training in February and he won his first race day at Brabantse Pijl against Wout van Aert. Remco remains the only rider alive who I (and I’m not alone in this belief) that can ever win the Tour de France as long as Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard exist, though it is more likely that if Remco is ever to wear yellow in Paris, it will be after the Slovenian and Dane have hung up their wheels. The same goes, more or less for Liege-Bastogne-Liege. It’s a shame Jonas is not here, but Pogacar, barring bad luck as he’s had plenty of in this race, is highly likely to rule the Ardennes with an iron fist for another half-decade or so. Indeed, Liege is such a hard race that the last five editions have been won by aliens (Roglic-Pogacar-Remco-Remco-Pogacar). Remco Evenepoel is surely going to go down as one of the best cyclists ever, but after what Pogacar has demonstrated for years, it seems that the Belgian is simply in the wrong era.
Pidcock has improved this year and finished third in Fleche. Liege should be the race that suits him best, and indeed he has some good results here, including a second-place in 2023. But I don’t see him doing better than third in 2025.
Skjelmose is the man who beat Pogi and Remco in Amstel Gold Race, but I chalk that up more to tactics than raw strength. A victory is a victory, and it was a nice moment for the talented diminutive Dane, but Liege is far different and Pogacar stomped him here last year. Skjelmose admitted that he “flew too close to the Sun” trying to follow Pogi on La Redoute, and it ruined his race. Unfortunately, Skjelmose crashed hard in Fleche today, a race in which he finished second in 2023 to Pogi. Hopefully he is not too injured and can bring his strong form to Liege on Sunday. He’s got a great sprint and in some universe could finish second.
Healy is the consummate Ardennes rider, having finished second in Amstel Gold Race in 2023 to Pogacar as his best result in these races. In the 2010s, he would have won Amstel and Liege at some point. But he rides in the 2020s, and that is a different proposition. He’s on great form this year, having launched a 56k solo raid in the Basque Country and then finished third on the Queen Stage from the breakaway. 10th in Amstel and fifth in Fleche don’t quite illustrate how strong he is this year. If he plays his cards right, the podium at Liege is well within his reach.
I feel I must include Enric Mas, as he is an elite climber and underrated one-day rider. Liege should be good for him, and he’s in strong form having finished second and third on GC in the two Spanish stage races. He DNFed Fleche but I will pin that on the cold weather (he thrives in heat). Liege will not be hot, but it will be far warmer on Sunday. Mas should be in the mix for the podium.
Buitrago was my pre-and-early-season pick to surprise in the Ardennes. After an unreal start to the season, in which he won two stages and the GC of Valenciana over Joao Almeida, he has had a tough last six weeks, including crashing out of Paris-Nice. But after a subpar Basque Country, and finishing 29th at Amstel, he rebounded to a sixth in Fleche. With that improvement curve, and his proven ability in Liege (third place in 2023), he should be lethal on Sunday.
Cicconne was born to ride the Ardennes, but he tends to focus more on GC results. He skipped Amstel and Fleche to do the Tour of the Alps (where he won the first stage) in preparation for the Giro, but he’ll be in Liege. He also finished second on GC in the UAE Tour in February, so his form is excellent. I like him and I hope he can compete well here.
Finally, reigning second-place finish Romain Bardet also skipped Amstel and Fleche for the Tour of the Alps, but he showed good form there. This is his final career Monument, and the fan-favorite will carry French hopes for a podium.
Race Dynamics:
Not many team rosters are near complete, but I am pretty sure with UAE’s squad, Pogacar will have the strongest team in the race at his disposal. Brandon McNulty, Jan Christen, and Pavel Sivakov are in excellent shape. They have the firepower to ride a brutal pace for many hours and launch Pogi on La Redoute for a solo. The breakaway never has a chance in Liege; the race is too hard. After what Pogi did in Fleche, other teams would be foolish to help UAE control the race. That does not mean they won’t, though. I bet Soudal Quick-Step and Lidl – Trek put a man on the front. In the end it is unlikely to matter at all. Tactics do not decide Liege-Bastogne-Liege in the modern era. Power does.
Prediction time: 1). Tadej Pogacar 2). Santiago Buitrago 3). Remco Evenepoel
I think Pogi will dominate solo with at least a two-minute margin, and Buitrago will surprisingly win the sprint for second ahead of an exhausted Remco.
Oh, and by the way, this race is going to be extremely boring for four-plus hours. I’ll be glued to it anyways.
Sad the Classics are coming to an end, but soon we’ll be watching the Giro d’Italia and then it won’t be long before you-know-what…
Jamie
Puncheur 
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