Amstel Gold Race Preview

The biggest race in the Netherlands is a one-day race at sub-Monument level, but Monument distance. Amstel Gold Race is 255.9 kilometers with 3,200 meters of elevation gain in 30+bergs.

As the opening skirmish of Ardennes week, it used to be a race more for Classics specialists and puncheurs, but as the racing has gotten more ferocious further from the finish line, and the best puncheurs now are also the best Grand Tour climbers, they will be expected to dominate the race this time around.

So let’s discuss the contenders:

Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel, Wout van Aert, Marc Hirschi, Tom Pidcock, Maxim Van Gils, Neilson Powless, Alex Aranburu, Magnus Sheffield

Pogacar, the 2023 winner, is Pogacar, and he’s better than ever this year. While I neglected to preview Paris-Roubaix, I was glued to the screen for the entire 5.5 hour war on the Northern pave. Pogi nearly won a flat cobbled Monument despite an imperious Mathieu van der Poel to fight against. He did win in Flanders the week before, but that I was pretty confident of before the race started. His competitiveness in Roubaix did not surprise me, even if the usual commentators who doubted him there are not eating their words despite their forecasts being quite wrong (Jasper Stuyven can sprint onto his wheel lmao, when will you learn Patrick Broe)… But I digress. There is little that needs to be said about Pogacar entering a hilly classic, even with one of the Big Four also on the start list. However, in this case, it should be noted that 66kg , Grand Tour-terminating Pogacar nearly beat the best cobbler in history in a brutal, near-record speed Paris-Roubaix. That has to bode pretty well for his climbing ability, huh? Unless he is completely ruined from the effort in Roubaix (and he’s never ruined from any effort), he should be the 1.01 favorite for Amstel, also taking into account that his team will be the strongest in the race.

Remco just won Brabanste Pijl today in a great matchup against Wout (and in his first race in six months, coming off a crash in training in December). I don’t think this course suits him as well as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but it’s Remco and there are hills. He’s going to be extremely good here. Good enough to take on Pogi? No point holding that in suspense here: No. Not even close. But he’s absolutely my second favorite here.

Wout is not the 2022 Wout anymore, but even at 95 percent, he’s much better than almost everyone else in the peloton. He’s won this race before and it suits him well enough. He’ll be my pick for third-favorite.

Hirschi has not shown too much this year, but this course suits him extremely well. He finished second here last year. I expect him to peak for this week and be strong here.

Pidcock is the defending champion, but I’m not confident in his form after his relatively poor showing in Brabantse Pijl. He is always good in Amstel, however, and showed a new top level at the beginning of this year. He also has a really good sprint after a hard race.

Van Gils has looked strong at times this year for his new team, but wasn’t good in the Basque Country. This week would have been the main target of his whole year though, so I bet he’ll come good. That being said, he’s miles away from being a top-three puncheur in the world, despite being heralded as the second coming of Christ up a hill by numerous commentators. He’s not even as good as Pidcock right now. And age is no excuse: he’s four years older than Pogacar was when he won his first Tour de France.

I have to make a quick rant: The reality in professional cycling is that there are three aliens now: One for Classics (MVDP), one for Grand Tours (Jonas Vingegaard), and one for both (Tadej Pogacar). Barring injury, they will not be defeated by mere mortals, and it is highly unlikely that anyone will step up to join them in this alien category anytime soon.

Powless won an epic Dwars Door Vlaanderen outsprinting Wout and two other Visma LAB riders, but that does not mean he’s leveled up at all. In 2023, he finished fifth in Flanders. This year, he finished 42nd. Amstel is a good course for Powless, but he is not close to the level of the aliens.

Aranburu looks strong this year, having won a stage of the Basque Country. Amstel is the perfect course for him, and if he rides smart he could be top-five or perhaps sneak a podium. He’s got a good sprint. Cofidis could definitely use the UCI points.

Sheffield is still quite young despite practically being a veteran. He won a stage of Paris-Nice this year, showing he’s at his best level ever. Amstel is the best Ardennes race for him at his weight (74kg or so). But I think top-five is the best he can realistically hope for.

We know the course is hard enough to go solo early and we are nearly certain that UAE will make the race hard from quite far away. I expect a long Pogacar solo to clinch the victory. For the rest of the podium, I expect a Remco solo for second, and Pidcock to win the sprint for third.

I’ve got to write a reaction to the Holy Week (Flanders and Roubaix). After Amstel is Fleche Wallonne on Wednesday, then Liege-Bastogne-Liege (the final spring Monument) next Sunday. Then it’s the Tour de Romandie before the Giro d’Italia. Definitely a lot to look forward to.

Jamie