The third of the Big Seven one-week stage races gets going tomorrow, March 24. This is the Tour of Catalonia, an ancient race that takes in the beauty of one of Spain’s most famous provinces. This should be a great race.
Let’s discuss the route first, according to ProCyclingStats.com:
Stage One: Sant Feliu de Guixols-Sant Feliu de Guixols (178.6km): The standard opening stage from the past few editions of this race is hilly all day with 2,632 meters of elevation gain. However, the only hill that matters is the last one, and the last kilometer averages five percent with a steeper ramp in the final meters. As we have seen in recent iterations, this stage is deceptively hard and entices classics riders, puncheurs, and GC riders to go for it.
Stage Two: Banyoles-Figueres (177.3km): Because it is Catalunya, there are hills, but nothing near the finish. This will be a bunch sprint.
Stage Three: Viladecans The Style Outlets-La Molina (218.6km): Arguably the Queen Stage with nearly 4,800m of climbing and a huge distance, this one should create decent GC gaps, but probably not between the heaviest hitters. It is not that hard in terms of each climb (the hardest of which is the penultimate climb, 20k at 5 percent) but added up there will be fatigue which will sort out some of the pretenders. This stage can be won with an opportunistic attack because the finale has a bit of a rolling plateau to the finish line. I do not expect a huge dominant solo here.
Stage Four: Sant Vicenç de Castellet-Montserrat Mil·lenari (188.7km): Another very lumpy day that is probably easier than the profile makes it look. It is a GC day with the final climb being a steady 8.8k/6.5%. That’s not particularly hard for some of the best climbers in the world, so I expect a mountaintop sprint.
Stage Five: Pauls-Amposta (172km): A sprint stage.
Stage Six: Berga-Queralt (159km): This, I think is the most decisive day of the week, with 3,854m vertical gain in a much shorter race than stage three. It’s almost a copy-paste of last year’s stage six, going over the Pradell, which is a crime against humanity. The climb is categorized at 15k/6.8%, but the final 5.5k average 10.9 including a kilometer at 15.5. This crests 62k from the finish. After a long valley, there are two climbs in the finale with a rolling valley between them. They are the Saint Isidre (5k/8.7%) and Queralt (5.9k/7.5%) on top of which the race finishes. It is possible to attack from the Pradell or the Saint Isidre, especially with teammates up the road. This is an incredible stage design, so chapeau to the organizers for repeating this stage.
Stage Seven: Barcelona-Barcelona (88.2km): This is the traditional Montjuic circuit (repeated seven times) after a short run-in. Montjuic is an irregular climb, the only part of which really matters is the final 700 meters, averaging well in excess of 10 percent. The stage finishes on the final descent. In the past this has been won by breakaways, but more recently by GC leaders. It could go either way this year depending on the race situation.
GC Favorite: Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso, Adam Yates, Enric Mas, Mikel Landa, Egan Bernal, Ben O’Connor, Simon Yates, Felix Gall
With only one alien here, this should be a done-and-dusted affair as long as he does not crash (which is always a big if with Roglic). But Roglic has only raced at Algarve this year, and looked awful. He is also by far the oldest, and clearly the “worst” (a relative term) of the aliens. He won this race two years ago in a great duel with Remco Evenepoel, but two years is ancient history in this sport. I’ve still got him as the favorite, but that is not exactly the prevailing opinion at this moment.
That is because Juan Ayuso appears to be beginning to fulfill his promise this spring. He was the Next Pogacar after following in the Slovenian’s footsteps by podiuming the Vuelta as a teenager. So can he also win Catalunya, as Pogacar did last year? After two years of relative stagnation, the jury was out on whether he could make it a Big Five list of aliens. He has won four races so far this year, including the Queen Stage and GC of Tirreno-Adriatico. And his climbing legs are clearly the best they have ever been. Is that enough to win Catalunya? Not yet, if Roglic brings near-top form. Ayuso only put 13 seconds into Pidcock on a 20-minute climb at Tirreno, and I believe Pidcock is still a third-tier long-climber at best. But I think Ayuso is going to keep getting better this year. However, because he has yet to beat any of the aliens in a fair-and-square matchup, I still rank him as second-favorite here. More to come on that at prediction time.
Adam Yates looked good at the beginning of the year, but less so at Tirreno. He is another past winner of this race, but may be in domestique mode for Ayuso again. UAE also bring the strongest team, as usual, so Yates might just as well get a free role. He, like Ayuso, is building up the Giro d’Italia, with Catalunya becoming an ideal preparation race. The win is possible, but the podium is more likely.
Enric Mas is racing in his home country and seems to feed off of Roglic. However, I think a far more decisive factor in his performances is weather. He thrives on heat, as in the Vuelta. Catalunya is not a hot race. And Mas is not much of a one-week guy. But I have to include him because his highest level is so good. Top five to podium should be the goal.
Mikel Landa had a career year last year at age 34 after transferring to Soudal Quick-Step. He’s off to a moderate start this year, delaying his season start until Tirreno, where he finished seventh. He finished second in this race last year. I think he is going to fly at Catalunya as it is a key benchmark in his own run-in to the Giro. The podium is a good target.
Egan Bernal finished third in this race last year, arguably his best result of the past few years. He was off to a good start this year with a double victory at the Colombian Nationals (TT/Road Race), but then fractured his collarbone at Clasica Jaen. This is his first race back, but legs are legs. He missed almost no training, so I expect a strong Bernal here. Top five is possible; the podium is a long shot.
Ben O’Connor also had a career year last season finishing second in the Vuelta and fifth in the final UCI ranking. After transferring to Team Jayco AlUla (his home Aussie side) he’s not looking so hot at the beginning of this year, including getting absolutely worked at Paris-Nice. But Catalunya is essentially his home race (as it is for many of the riders who live in Andorra) and he’s performed well here in the past. He could sneak a top five.
Simon Yates was expected to be one of the best transfers of the year following the announcement of his move to Visma | Lease a Bike. However, he’s only done Tirreno so far, and was pretty horrendous there. I think he will be decent here, but not good enough to compete for the podium.
Felix Gall was on amazing form at the UAE Tour before a crash took him out. He started to come around by the end of Paris-Nice, a race that did not really suit him. He’s shown a ridiculously high level before, so you cannot count him out, especially in a race with no time trial.
Notable omissions: Richard Carapaz (terrible so far this year), Lennert Van Eetfelt (cannot hang with this level of competition especially on this parcours), Lenny Martinez (got lucky on that Paris-Nice stage and has not shown ability on serious GC days), Marc Soler (hometown boy but cannot finish the job against this field), Pavel Sivakov (domestique duty), Geraint Thomas (why is he here?), Sepp Kuss (likely domestique duty, just not that good overall, and castrated by Visma’s team management)
Sprinters: Marijn Van Den Berg, Kaden Groves, Dorian Godon, Matthew Brennan
There are no true sprinters here, and you have to go wayyy down the list to discover the rest of the potential top 10 on the two sprint days.
I think the podium for those days should be Groves, MVDB, and Brennan in some order. Godon could factor on stages one and seven.
But let’s predict each stage before the final GC podium.
Stage One: Ayuso narrowly outsprints Primoz Roglic and Van Eetfelt
Stage Two: Brennan beats Groves and MVDB
Stage Three: O’ Connor wins with a sneak attack (as he previously on this finish), Ayuso and Roglic finish together with a small gap on the rest of the GC riders
Stage Four: Ayuso outsprints Roglic with a gap to everybody else. Yates^2 finish together.
Stage Five: Groves does what he does in Catalunya (and Spain) and beats Brennan and MVDB.
Stage Six: Attacks fly early from the Pradell; but UAE locks down the race. Roglic outsprints Ayuso atop the Queralt. Landa to flies into third on GC.
Stage Seven: The break escapes and Godon gets his win. There are no GC differences.
Final GC Prediction: 1). Juan Ayuso 2). Primoz Roglic 3). Mikel Landa
I think this is going to be a turning point in the narrative about the Aliens. While I think Roglic will be extremely strong, Ayuso will be so good that he will win, and thus, in my judgement, join the club and indeed make it a Big Five. Of course, this remains a preparation race for the Giro, which will be the ultimate determinant if Ayuso has arrived (yet), but with two stage wins and the GC of Catalunya against an in-form Roglic, he can no longer be excluded from the Big list.
E3 and Gent-Wevelgem (Pogacar’s next appointments, and on the cobbles) are next weekend. All gas no breaks is the story of March and April in European Cycling. This is arguably the best time of year to be a fan. And I for one, am locked in.
MSR recap coming up next?
Puncheur 
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