Milano-Sanremo Preview

It is time for La Classicissima di Primavera, the first Monument of 2025, Milano-Sanremo. The 289-kilometer (longest UCI event on the calendar) race takes place Saturday, March 22 because the extremely pious staunchly Catholic nation of Italy observes Mass on Sunday (all non-Italian major classics take place on Sundays).

This is arguably the most important race of the season for the most important rider in the peloton, so I am extremely hyped up for what in actuality is a quite boring 5+ hours of cycling before an explosive, enthralling finale. But we will get to the contenders.

First, let’s discuss why this race is special. The 116th MSR is a Monument, though I would rank it fourth (second-from-last) in terms of prestige. For example, I think most riders would prefer to win De Ronde van Vlaanderen than MSR, unless MSR was the only race missing from their collection, as it essentially is with the favorite for this year’s race.

But even being a bit down my list of Monuments, by virtue of its Monument status, MSR is automatically elevated in terms of prestige (and UCI points) far above all other one-day races and above Grand Tour stages. Its distance, its unique parcours that opens the door to a variety of different riders competing for the victory. It has long been held as the trickiest Monument to win for the strongest riders, due to the course not automatically sorting out the peloton down to who has the strongest legs. To win MSR requires good watts, team strength, tactical nous, and often a fair bit of luck. That is why it is so desperately coveted by the best riders. Often, like Eminem, you only get one shot to win this race, even if you dominate the peloton for years, (as in the Monuments, two riders currently do). So if one brings top form, a good team, they still need to execute to near-perfection and often profit from a bit of luck.

So now that we’ve established why MSR is a highly-cherished race, let’s explain the parcours that invites (and dangles tantalizing in front of the prospect of a Monument crown) a lovely diverse field of riders with different skill sets.

MSR is 289 kilometers, which in the old days usually meant about 7 hours. Last year took six-and-a-quarter, due to a tailwind and a record average speed. I don’t think this distance makes much of a difference in the outcome of the race, because the race is typically incredibly easy for a Monument for the first five hours or so. There are a few little bumps in the route as it heads from outside of Milan down to the coast and then Southwest towards Sanremo, but all they really do is serve as bits of leg (and back) strechers for the breakaway and the peloton.

The race is formulaic; there will be a reasonably large breakaway of perhaps a dozen riders, consisting mostly of invited teams but containing some strong engines. They will ride full-gas for hours and hours and force the peloton to set what will likely be another average speed record, in part due to the expected tailwind. The peloton will be marshalled by the might of the teams of the favorites, like UAE Team Emirates – XRG and Alpecin – Deceuninck. I do not expect the breakaway to play a significant role in the race outcome.

The race heats up when the peloton arrives at the Tre Capi (three hills on the coast), the first two of which are easy, but the third could commence the real hostilities. Capo Berta is 1.7km at 7 percent and crests about 40 kilometers from the finish line.

The next climb is the Cipressa, which is 5.6km but averages just 4 percent. You can expect the race to explode here despite the shallow gradient, because it is in the interest of UAE to make the penultimate climb harder than it has ever been. But because the climb crests 20k from the checkered flag and there is a flat valley between the descent and the final climb, it is nigh-on impossible to go solo from the Cipressa.

The final climb is the Poggio, which is 3.7km but again is very shallow at 3.7 percent. After the descent of the Poggio, there is a flat 2 kilometers to the finish line.

So let’s discuss the contenders and their teams before making some prognostications about how the race may play out, because the multitude of tactical equations are fascinating.

Tadej Pogacar is the betting favorite (and my personal favorite) for the race he has stated he dearly wants to win perhaps the most of all. He has won three of the five Monuments, missing this one and Paris-Roubaix (which he may ride this year). Many observers (myself included) believe MSR is the hardest Monument for him to win, because despite his strength, the course is not suited to his capabilities and Mathieu van der Poel exists. Pogacar’s presence in this race will define the tactics of all of the other teams, because UAE is expected to control the race and then attempt to unleash hell on the climbs. He brings a decent squad with him, but some of the selections, which were announced today, are leaving me scratching my head.

The full line-up for UAE is Vegard Stake Laengen, Nils Politt, Jhonatan Narvaez, Tim Wellens, Isaac del Toro, Domen Novak, and Pogacar. The mistakes made in team composition for me are Novak and Laengen; UAE had better options for the specific demands of MSR, perhaps Brandon McNulty (though he may be sick) and/or Antonio Morgado, and maybe even a real climber to be discussed later. But I digress; with the team assembled as it is, UAE must play their cards perfectly and Pogacar must be brutally strong in order to win. After I have previewed the rest of the contenders, we will go into a deep dive on what that means.

Second favorite has to be Mathieu van der Poel, who won this race in 2023 and helped his teammate Jasper Philipsen win it last year after neutralizing two attacks from Pogacar. MVDP is much heavier and possesses a better sprint that Pogacar, which gives him a theoretical edge on climbs like the Cipressa and Poggio. He only needs to be with Pogacar at the end of the race and he will almost certainly outsprint him. Alpecin brings a strong team, and I expect them to be lent on to control the breakaway for much of the day. That will likely be the job of Silvan Dillier and/or Gianni Vermeersch (likely working with Laengen). But MVDP is not the only card for his team.

Jasper Philipsen is the defending champion and cannot be ruled out, not because he is the best rider in the race, but because the dynamics of MSR favor him. He can climb the Poggio in the second or third group and come back on the descent. He then has a good chance to have the best sprint of all those left at the finish line, and the best lead-out man if MVDP chooses to go that route.

Filippo Ganna is looking incredibly strong this year (having just pushed an estimated 520 watts for 20 minutes at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished second on GC) and has performed well in MSR in the past, finishing second in 2023 and having an untimely mechanical last year ruin his race. He can certainly win this year, but he needs things to fall in his lap and sneak away in the final 1 or 2 kilometers. It’s not impossible, but I probably give him a smaller chance than most pundits. His team might throw up a sacrificial lamb, perhaps Ben Swift, to help with breakaway control, but INEOS Grenadiers will not be expected to do much. Ganna will likely have to fly solo.

My fifth-favorite is Mads Pedersen, who was flying in Paris-Nice including winning a stage and finishing 10th on a mountain stage which ended on a 20-minute climb. MSR is a good race for Pedersen, but I remain skeptical about his abilities in Monuments against the heaviest hitters. He has a sprint option on his team in Jonathan Milan, but I don’t see the big man getting over the Cipressa, let alone the Poggio, in the front group. Lidl – Trek also bring a strong team, but Pedersen just has to follow the big moves and try to either win the sprint or sneak away after the Poggio descent. If I were him, I would trust my sprint. It probably gives him a better chance to win.

So now we have to go over UAE and Pogacar’s reported plans and whether their tactics are the correct ones. However, we should briefly analyze why MSR is hard for Pogacar to win.

Pogacar is probably about 65-67kg at the moment. When you are in that weight class, it is difficult to gain a significant advantage on gradients below 6 percent, not only because of the drafting effect due to basic higher speeds on the climb (making it easier to sit in the wheels behind the attacker), but also because due to basic gravity, weight is less important on shallow gradient climbs. It still matters, but not nearly as much as on gradients 7 percent and above.

So functionally, if you were to hold a time trial up the Poggio and/or Cipressa, you probably would not see a significant difference in the result between riders like Ganna and MVDP, despite Ganna’s most recent weight listed at 86kg, and MVDP around 75kg. Pogacar would climb both hills faster at still 10 fewer kilograms, but the question that will decide MSR is how much faster? He needs to be approximately 3-4 percent better to create separation and win solo. 1 percent better will not be enough. Why?

Well, with a 1 percent advantage, Ganna, MVDP, and others could sit on his wheel and outsprint him at the finish. Or, in the case that Pogacar’s explosiveness has improved from last year (an unlikely scenario), a 1 percent gap over the Poggio (I’m assuming the gap would be created not from the summit, meaning it’s not a full 1 percent of the climbing time) would be one or a few seconds, which riders like MVDP can easily close on the descent of the Poggio or the flat before the finish line, at which point Pogacar would likely be too cooked to win the sprint.

And yes, I’m ruling out the Cipressa attack. It is not the correct tactic, even though Pogacar has tried the same strategy (Poggio attack) for several years to no avail. Why can’t he go on the Cipressa? Well, as I have written before, he could attempt this strategy if Remco Evenepoel was in the race. Remco could potentially cover the attack if it was not full-gas, and then be the perfect companion for Pogi to put distance on the destroyed peloton in the valley before the Poggio.

But with no Remco on the start line, it is the valley that renders this tactic complete suicide. With a host of strong, motivated engines likely to cooperate behind Pogacar, assuming he gets a gap on the Cipressa, he would ruin his race trying to hold them off and then likely not finish in the top 15.

That’s not to say that Pogacar’s team will not utilize the Cipressa. The reports coming out of the team war room (this does not actually exist as far as I know, but I like to imagine that it does) are that the goal is to ride the Cipressa under nine minutes. That would be a record on the penultimate climb by a large margin. I do not know exactly what else they have planned, or which riders will be used where, but I like the strategy of a record attempt on the Cipressa. Quite simply, this is the best way to destroy the legs of the bigger guys before the Poggio.

But to me, this plan is incomplete. And with the team UAE have assembled, ripping up the Cipressa in 8:45 might cook their whole squad before the Poggio, which is what almost happened last year, even though the Cipressa time was just 9:30, not nearly quick enough to do significant damage to guys like MVDP. Then, with the flat 8-10k between the Cipressa and Poggio, there is the potential (as occurred last year) for a regroupment as no one wants to pull the front group and the chasers fight tooth and nail to come back. This would be disastrous for Pogacar, as it was last year.

There are two schools of thought when analyzing last year’s race and making predictions for this year: The first is that UAE brought a decent line-up and still failed to make the Cipressa hard enough and keep on the gas in the valley to set up the Poggio attack, and Pogacar was extremely strong (setting the Poggio record with a brutal attack) but still failed to gain the necessary separation to win. The second (and my own preferred) opinion is that despite UAE not bringing the squad needed and being out of position leading into the Cipressa, doing the climb way too slowly, Pogacar’s own abilities netted a gap on the Poggio and an eventual third-place finish.

But why is a record ascent of the Cipressa not enough for Pogacar to win? Here, finally, after I feel like I have beating around the bush for what feels like 2,000 words, is my plan: UAE need to go full-gas on the Capo Berta. I do not see anybody else saying this, which blows my mind. Last year, the peloton broke the Strava record, which means it was the fastest Berta in modern times. I’m sure many will poo-poo this strategy, pointing out that it’s just a 3-minute climb. Well yes, but that’s kind of the point. A full-gas 3-minute effort can cook your legs. It is far more lactic than a 20-minute sub-threshold effort. And this is the steepest climb in the entire race at 7 percent, which means guys like MVDP and Ganna will be suffering in the wheels if UAE make the pace hard enough. This will take far less out of Pogacar than his rivals. That’s the goal. And quite simply, the harder the race is, the better chance Pogacar has to win. The further out UAE can start f***ing up the legs of his competitors, the more likely it is that his Poggio attack can create significant separation.

This element of my own plan for UAE is why I am so disappointed with their team construction. They needed to bring a top-tier climber to do this job on the Berta, like Adam Yates or Juan Ayuso, though I am well-aware that the latter considers himself far above such menial duties. As it stands now, I’d sacrifice Del Toro (who is flying right now, having won and set a climbing record in Milano-Torino yesterday) on the Berta just to shake the race up as early as possible. But I doubt this will happen. They will likely use Domen Novak on the Berta and try to keep him on the front until near the Cipressa.

The next phase of my strategy for them is probably in accordance with what they will actually attempt: keep the peloton in a line with Nils Politt and get the team in position to go full-gas from the base of the Cipressa, which is the steepest part of the climb. I’d use Politt for the first 500-1,000 meters of the Cipressa, then Wellens as far as he can go.

The problem with both approaches is that there is probably nobody left to control the valley before the Poggio. I’ve got Narvaez is the last man to do a brutal lead-out on the Poggio, and he will likely do this job well, but not if he has to control for 10 minutes on the flat beforehand.

My strategy hopes that either Wellens can go over the top of the Cipressa and control on part of the flat section, or that another team will take up that responsibility. Neither are particularly likely, but Pogacar needs some luck to win this race anyways.

All of that said, I still believe Pogacar can win this race with the strategy UAE will likely use and with the line-up that will contest the race.

There is little to say about other teams’ strategies. They will look to UAE and Pogacar to animate the race and play off of him.

I should note that Philipsen crashed hard yesterday and is questionable to start the race, which would make Pogacar a bit more likely to win because it is one less competitor, and also changes MVDP’s strategy 180 degrees.

Finally, what do I think will happen?

UAE will execute their strategy to near-perfection, using Laengen for early breakaway control, Novak for the Tre Capi (narrowly breaking the Berta record), then Politt to lead-in to the Cipressa, followed by Del Toro and Wellens, who will make it over the Cipressa (done in 8:54) and part of the way to the Poggio. There will be a few moments of chaos as the peloton slows down after Wellens pulls off, before Narvaez takes over on the bottom slopes of the Poggio. He will not make it quite far enough, but his team leader will start lighting things up early. Pogacar will attack three times, finally getting the necessary separation on the steepest section of the Poggio, as MVDP will be cooked and unable to close him down. Pogacar will ride solo to the finish and take his fourth Monument. Ganna will sneak away at the base of the descent and take a solo second place, and Mads Pedersen will win the sprint for third.

One can dream, I suppose.

He needs to pull it off this year. Time is running out. The bonus for fans is that he will likely ride Roubaix if he wins MSR, which is another reason to root for him.

Jamie