UAE Tour Preview

The final race in the Middle East for 2025 is the highest-level. The The Seventh UAE Tour takes place from February 17-23.

This race is a seven-stage WorldTour event, the second of 2025. The route is more or less the same every year, with four flat sprint stages (echelons possible), a flat time trial, an easy moutain-top finish in Jebel Jais, and a harder MTF in Jebel Hafeet.

But let’s discuss the start list before I make predictions for each stage and the final GC.

Tadej Pogacar is commencing his 2025 campaign in his sponsor’s home race. The World Champion will not be on a revenge tour as he was in 2024, but instead a legacy tour, trying to follow up the greatest cycling season an individual has ever had with an even better one.

He has already won this race twice in his career, including four stage wins, three of which came on Jebel Hafeet (the other on Jebel Jais). His only defeat in this race came in his first appearance in 2020, when now-teammate Adam Yates dropped him on the first Hafeet. Pogi would still win the second ascent of Hafeet (they did it twice that year, in lieu of Jais), but not by enough to overhaul Yates, who took the GC title.

So Pogacar has a good record in this race (he does in almost every race). He’ll start as the overwhelming favorite to clean up three stages and the GC. But who else is in the race?*

*Full start list yet unconfirmed, this is according to ProCyclingStats.com (Visma LAB notably has not confirmed anybody besides Olav Kooij and apparently Dan McLay)

Contenders for the GC podium I see are defending champion Lennert Van Eetfelt, Carlos Rodriguez, Oscar Onley, Finn Fisher-Black, Einer Rubio, Luke Plapp, Michael Storer, and baby French hope Paul Seixas

But this race, because the GC essentially comes down to one decisive unipuerto, can throw up some surprising top-10 results. Young riders and sometimes outsiders often perform well on Jebel Hafeet because the stage does not induce any fatigue before the climb. That can bring to the fore a different type of rider, one who has a big 25-30 minute climbing engine but cannot (yet, in some cases) cope with repeated efforts common in European mountain stages. That is one of the reasons I included Seixas as a dark horse, as he has already demonstrated in some training efforts that he can climb well without fatigue.

All of that being said, the majority of the stages are going to be bunch sprints, unless there is major echelon carnage (and even then, they will likely be reduced flat sprints). So it would be a crime against the Cycling Gods to not hype up the fact that the three best sprinters in the world, possibly the best six in fact, are all going to be head-to-head in the unofficial sprinters’ world championship in the desert.

Yes, Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen, and Jonathan Milan will all be present, in addition to Olav Kooij, Sam Welsford, and Dylan Groenewegen. There are numerous more big names; the only one missing is 2024 Green Jersey winner Biniam Girmay, who is not normally great early in the season anyway. It is extremely difficult to separate Merlier and Milan, who each won three stages at the Giro last year, while Philipsen is very consistent and wins a lot of Tour stages. The other three are wild-cards in my eyes.

Stage-by-Stage Analysis:

Stage One (138km): A non-flat short day out with some lumps and bumps in the finale and an uphill finish. It could be enough to tire out Merlier in particular, who is not the climber that Philipsen and Milan are. We’ll see. I think Milan is the fastest man in the world, but he won’t win this one because he’s 80kg+ and Philipsen is better uphill. Jasper wins stage one.

Stage Two (12.2km) (ITT): A gargantuan two vertical meters confront the time trialists. I don’t see any heavy hitters on the start list, so Pogacar will win this TT, despite its pan-flat nature.

Stage Three (181km): This is the Jebel Jais unipuerto, which is 19 kilometers at 5.6 percent. Jebel Jais is a highly regular highway climb, and WorldTour cyclists ride so fast up five percent gradients that drafting is massive (the grade already favors slightly heavier climbers). The 83kg monster Filippo Ganna finished 11th on this stage in the past, in the bunch just three seconds behind a flying Pogacar, who won this stage in 2022. Pogi has also finished second (winning the group sprint) behind an attacking Jonas Vingegaard, before he was Jonas Vingegaard. If he has any interest, this should be an easy sprint win for Pogacar, especially with three sprints (recovery days) afterwards, not that he needs them.

Stage Four (181km): A flat sprint day. Echelons possible. Milan wins.

Stage Five (160km): A flat sprint day. Echelons possible. Milan wins.

Stage Six (165km): A flat sprint day. Echelons possible. Milan wins.

Stage Seven (176km): To Jebel Hafeet for the Queen Stage. Hafeet is an irregular 6.7 percent for 10.9 kilometers. There are plenty of steep ramps to launch attacks. I expect UAE to go full-gas and launch Pogacar early. He’ll want to test his form for his upcoming targets. The climbing record should go down sans headwind.

Final GC Podium Prediction: 1). Tadej Pogacar 2).Lennert Van Eetfelt 3). Carlos Rodriguez

Van Eetfelt is proven in this race despite Rodriguez having a better palmares and more experience. I think the course also suits the rather explosive Van Eetfelt far better than the diesel Rodriguez. I believe Seixas will finish in the top five on Hafeet and thus should be +/-5th on GC overall (he’s a decent TTer and shouldn’t get gapped too badly, if at all by his rivals on Jais). The rest of the contenders are hard to sort, though we know Onley and Fisher-Black are in good shape from their exploits in Australia in January.

Expect some hideous scenery, no spectators, and some decent racing (though mostly incredibly soft-pedaling) in the United Arab Emirates this late February. It will be good to have Pogacar back racing his bike again, though Flanders (the best race) remains a long way away.

There is no sign of spring here in Vermont with a vicious Nor’Easter forecasted this weekend, so we’ll have to live vicariously through the images of bright sunshine, albeit in the harsh desert, on the screen. The images of the rainbow jersey attacking on his brand new Colnago will be comforting as well.

By the way, didn’t that guy post something on the ol’ Instagram the other day about some cobblestones? 😉 I’ll have to write something about that shortly.

Until next time!

Jamie