On Monday, February 10, Tadej Pogacar posted on his Instagram account a video of him “reconning” (riding) the Trouee d’Arenberg, which is the most famous cobbled sector of Paris-Roubaix. The internet immediately went wild with speculation: Will Pogacar ride Roubaix this year? And the Classics peloton probably trembled in fear. Jasper Philipsen (Pogi’s close friend and two-time runner-up in the race) posted perhaps the best comment: “Plz no” knowing the threat that Pogacar would pose to him and his team leader Mathieu van der Poel (two-time defending champion) in the Queen of the Classics.
But should Pogacar ride Roubaix, and how would he do if he did?
Well, this has been beaten to death already, but I have to throw my two pennies in the ring. It’s a topic near to my heart.
Of course he should do it. And not just because it would be incredible to see. When is the last time a Tour de France winner turned up at Roubaix? When is the last time a 65kg climber won the race? Let alone in the World Champion’s jersey? I don’t know the answers to these questions off the top of my head, though I assume the last TDF winner to win Roubaix was Bernard Hinault. Before him, it must be Eddy Merckx.
But it makes sense for Pogacar to do Roubaix this year. He’s going to be heavier than Grand Tour weight in the spring for the Classics anyway, which helps on the cobbles (though I’m not sure he even needs to be to win). He is riding a pretty decent classics program anyway, with E3 Saxo Classic, Gent-Wevelgem, and the Ronde van Vlaanderen. He would simply have to extend his cobbled season one week for Roubaix. I know it would hamper his Ardennes preparation a bit, but I think he should skip Amstel Gold Race and La Fleche Wallonne anyway, and do the MVDP spring: Just ride all four Monuments and a few other Classics, then take a break and get ready for the Tour de France.
Does he risk crashing and injuring himself in Roubaix? Sure, but not much more, if at all, than most other races. Cycling is dangerous, and lots of races have crashes. Look what happened in the Basque Country last year. By swinging your leg over a top tube, you’re always risking a crash. I highly doubt Roubaix is statistically much more dangerous than many other races. Pogacar is a great bike handler and loves to race on all terrain.
This brings me to the next reason he should do Roubaix: anybody who watched Stage Nine of the 2022 Tour de France knows that Pogacar is one of, if not the, strongest rider in the peloton on (flat) cobbles. He’s simply too powerful and dynamic to not be. He would be absolutely lethal in Roubaix.
That mostly answers the second question: Of course he can win Roubaix. Doubting Pogacar on any course except a pan-flat sprint has been proven over and over again to be a grave error. Naichaca pointed out after Lombardia that the best betting strategy for a cycling season is to simply bet on Pogacar every race, despite increasingly short odds. He’s that dominant. And in Roubaix, he might be a little bit of a value bet depending on punter sentiment before the Hell of the North.
The only thing stopping me from declaring him the heavy favorite is that MVDP was not in top shape at the Tour in 2022. So we don’t know how a brutally strong, and the best cobbler, perhaps ever, MVDP, would stack up in a 260km (with 55km of savage cobbles) flat race against Pogi.
But I’d still say Pogacar is co-favorite with MVDP, should he choose to start Roubaix this year, or hopefully next year at the latest. That brings me to the final reason he needs to line up in this race ASAP.
Roubaix can be a bit of a lottery with crashes and mechanicals. It would be a terrible shame for him to show out as the strongest rider in the race and not win because of a bike or handling issue (crash). He desperately wants to win all five Monuments in his career, of course in addition to the three Grand Tours, so the more runs he takes at Rouabaix, the better chance he has to snag at least one victory.
Milano-Sanremo is already hard enough to win, and he’s failed four times already (I believe he will win MSR this year, and it’s hard to envisage a non-crash scenario where he loses Liege-Bastogne-Liege or Lombardia. Flanders will be a battle, but he is the favorite there too). If he start Roubaix this year and fails four consecutive times, he’ll be 31. Will he really still be the imperious Pogacar we know at age 31? It’s certainly possible, but one would expect a slightly shortened career due to how good he was so young. So he needs to start rolling the on dice on the cobbles now. And if he does pull it off this year, could he win all five Monuments in one year?
There are still Pogacar doubters out there, and I’ll admit I bought some of their rhetoric particularly regarding long climbs this time last year. Then Plateau de Beille (and Isola 2000) happened. And everything else. There are trolls and legitimate haters, then there are fanbois and finally, the camp I consider myself in, let’s call it “realist aficionados”. I get a kick out of all sides. But I genuinely think it’s foolish to put anything past this man. He seems to be the second coming of Christ on a bike.
Pogacar will win Roubaix in 2025 or 2026. I would put money on it.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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