The first race of 2025 kicks off in Australia on Tuesday, January 21. This will be a brief preview because this race simply is not great. Why? South Australia does not exactly have big mountains to create an enthralling parcours (and the race has not utilized all of the hills available), the race isn’t very prestigious for a WorldTour event, and the start-list reflects that with just eight of the top 100 ProCyclingStats.com-ranked riders in the peloton. Nevertheless, I am looking forward to this race.
I’ll start with the top competitors for the General Classification before previewing the top sprinters, dark horses to steal or a stage or finish highly on GC, then do a stage-by-stage analysis with picks for for each one, before finally predicting the final podium.
GC favorites: Stephen Williams, Jay Vine, Jhonatan Narvaez, Oscar Onley, Marc Soler, Finn-Fisher-Black, Magnus Sheffield, Luke Plapp
Williams is the defending champion and had a breakout year in 2024, highlighted by a victory at La Fleche Wallonne. The course suits him well, and as such he has to be considered the favorite to repeat.
Jay Vine won in 2023 and will be one of the hometown favorites. This route is not the best for his characteristics (he’s less a puncheur than a longer climber) but on his day, he’s got some of the best watts per kilogram in the peloton. He’s in decent form having finished second in the Aussie champs time trial and sixth in the road race.
Narvaez is the man for me to be one of the top transfers of 2025. He was good in this race last year, finishing second in the final GC before sticking to Tadej Pogacar’s wheel on Stage One of the Giro d’Italia and outsprinting him to win the stage and take the first Maglia Rosa of 2024, one of the few men who beat Pogi or wore a Grand Tour leader’s jersey last year when the Slovenian was in the race. This year, he’ll be on Pogacar’s team, and riding almost an identical schedule as his leader. Narvaez is likely to be one of his best domestiques, and this will be one of the only races he gets to be leader at UAE, so he will want to show himself. This course suits his puncheur abilities to a T, and he should be even stronger than last year with UAE’s training in his legs.
Onley won on the Queen Stage last year and finished third on GC. He’ll have to be stronger this year if he wants to take the victory. His training is looking good, but I don’t think it will be enough.
Marc Soler is an incredible rider, but quite unpredictable. I love the man and the rider, so I had to list him, but I’m not convinced he can compete on this parcours.
Finn Fisher-Black transferred from UAE to Red Bull – Bora – Hansgrohe this off-season, which on paper would lead to a slight regression, but he was not realizing his talent at UAE and perhaps RBBH will fit him better. He’s shown a high level on short climbs especially after low energy-expenditure days (which is what will decide the TDU) so he could be competitive here.
Magnus Sheffield is another strong rider who two years ago finished fourth in this race. As with Soler and Vine, I don’t think this route is tailored to his abilities, but he’s proven he can compete here.
Luke Plapp is always flying down under but has never performed too well in this race. I have to list him as a contender because he is so strong at Aussie nationals every year. We’ll see if he can finally translate that to an ochre jersey at the TDU.
Sprinters: Sam Welsford, Phil Bauhaus, Tobias Lund Andresen, Corbin Strong, Tim Torn Teutenberg, Bryan Coquard, Matthew Brennan
Welsford is the obvious choice to dominate the sprints here on home soil. He won three stages last year and just won the pre-race criterium in dominating fashion.
Bauhaus is a proven workhorse who performs better throughout the year than Welsford. Twice he has finished in a Tour de France stage and he has 22 career races, a far better palmares than the Aussie. However I don’t think he is quite as powerful, just more crafty and consistent than Welsford. He’s also a better climber, which could be important on one or two of these stages.
Andresen is quite young, at 22, and we have yet to see him compete with the top sprinters in the big races. However, he’s getting a lot of hype, so I’ll include him here.
Kiwi Corbin Strong is not so much a sprinter as a puncheur, but that might be quite useful on this parcours, as mentioned above, and will be explained when I preview each stage. He’s flying on Strava right now and I’m excited to see him get on with in Adelaide.
Teutenberg, another 22-year-old, makes his WorldTour debut for Lidl-Trek. I think he’s quite talented so I’ve thrown in him into this list despite knowing little about him.
Coquard is the winner of 52 races but only two at WT level, the first of which came in this race’s ’23 edition. I like him, but I don’t think he’s got the power to compete with Welsford.
Matthew Brennan finished third in the crit and is also making his debut in the pro ranks for Visma LAB. He is a true youngster, at just 19. This is a great race to make your debut in because the roads are safe, the peloton is less aggressive, the stages are short, and the stages are mostly easy before the sprint. We’ll see if he’s up to the task yet.
Dark horses for stages and/or GC: Laurence Pithie, Dorian Godon, Lukas Nerurkrar, Javier Romo, Albert Withen Philipsen, Alberto Bettiol, Nick Schultz, Sergio Higuita
Pithie is the obvious pick to actually win the GC despite being 74kg. He’s that strong. Unfortunately, as the man with the potential to be the best transfer of the year, he’ll probably be on lead-out duties at RBBH for Welsford on some of the stages.
Godon has a good sprint and can get uphill decently.
Nerurkrar is a big 21-year-old British talent for EF who finished third on a Dauphine stage last year (winning the sprint behind a few late attackers). This course suits him well.
Romo is a former triathlete who rode well in the Tour de France last year and seems to still be improving.
Philipsen is one of the names I’m most excited to see. A World Junior champion, he’s 18 and makes his professional debut here. He’s got huge watts, but he’s about 75kg, so we will see if he climb with the best on Willunga or sneak away on one of the punchy stages.
Bettiol is a Ronde van Vlaanderen winner, but he’s not followed that victory up with much and now he’s riding for Astana. So he’s firmly in the dark horse category.
Schultz won a stage of Catalunya last year with a late attack to hold off Pogacar. He’s Australian, and will be looking to do something in this race if he’s not fully on domestique duty (Israel – Premier Tech are bringing a very strong squad).
Higuita showed a lot of promise early in his career and has won a few nice races, including Catalunya, but he’s regressed and now he’s on Astana with Bettiol. That’s bad news. However, talent never goes away, so he’s a dark horse.
Stage-by-Stage analysis:
Stage One (151km): It’s not flat, and there’s a 1.5k/6.6% climb done a few times, the final one coming 30k from the finish line, but this is a sprint stage. Welsford will annihilate the competition.
Stage Two (129km): A very short day out for a WorldTour peloton which includes three ascents of a 2.8k/6.6 percent climb, the first coming right at the start and the last finishing 22k from the line. That gives attackers a chance. I think there will be attacks on the final climb, but it will come back together for a slightly-reduce sprint won by Welsford.
Stage Three (148km): 2,648 total altitude meters with a final climb of 2.7k/7.7% that crests before 6k of rolling terrain to the line. There will certainly be action on the last climb. I think it will be small sprint and Narvaez will win.
Stage Four (157km): Another puncheur’s day with plenty of hills before a 1.8k/8.4% climb which summits 22k from the line. There is some rolling terrain before just about 5k of flat, which should incentivize some attacks. This could be a solo attacker or a small group at the line. I’ll take Stephen Williams to win from a small group.
Stage Five (146km): Two ascents of Willunga Hill (3.3k/7.4%) should decide the GC. I’ll take Jay Vine to drop everybody and take the ochre jersey.
Stage Six (90km): A flat kermesse-style sprint to be won by Welsford.
Final GC podium prediction (different from what I posted on X a few weeks ago): 1). Jay Vine 2). Jhonatan Narvaez 3). Stephen Williams
Enjoy the road season finally getting going again.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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