A few weeks ago, Red Bull – Bora -Hansgrohe announced that the OG Slovenian superstar would target the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France next year in what is likely to be his swan song as a top GC contender. So what to make of this?
Well, my reaction is similar to when Tadej Pogacar made the same announcement last winter: it seems like Roglic is hedging his bets. Ensure a great probability of a Grand Tour victory (which would be his sixth) in the early part of the season, before throwing caution to the wind and going for yellow in July. On paper, it makes more sense than going all-in on the Tour, a race in which there are likely to be three stronger competitors, not to mention Roglic’s incredible record of crashing in France. The obvious conclusion is that it’s better to take a, let’s say, 70 percent chance at the Maglia Rosa (assuming none of the other Big Four ride the Giro) than to gamble on a… oh, let’s optimistically say 10 percent chance at victory in the Tour, with the more-than-likely outcome is a non-result (DNF) or fourth place.
But I believe RBBH and Roglic are also thinking that Pogacar did the double last year and was certainly stronger in France than in Italy, so the Giro might actually just be the best preparation for the Tour. This may or may not be true for a 35-year-old, which the prevailing wisdom would state possesses inferior recovery abilities than a 25-year-old (Pogi). There is also the fact that regenerative speed is quite genetic, and Pogacar is the greatest recover-er (both from stage to stage, and from race to race) we have ever seen. Roglic might not be far off, but a few percentage points can be the difference between a Tour victory and a fourth place. However, I believe this thought process is mostly moot, because Roglic has never shown the climbing level that Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar have, and Remco Evenepoel is likely to be better in 2025 than he was this year. So even if Roglic comes off of the Giro flying, it simply will not be enough.
My final initial reaction (which is a follow-up thought from the first one), also in line with what I believed Pogacar was doing last year (though for the younger Slovenian, it was only a temporary shift in approach): Roglic has gone through his stages of grief and arrived at acceptance that he will never win the Tour de France. That’s quite a sad thing for a top sportsman to come to grips with, but of course the relative emotional suffering of not winning the world’s biggest bike race does not hold a candle to what many humans deal with daily.
In reality, as with most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and the pendulum might be swinging as I write this. Roglic and the RBBH brass could be feeling differently about this decision each day that goes by this winter, oscillating painfully between delusions of grandeur about pink and yellow in 2025 and images of the cruel mistress of reality that denied the Slovenian his biggest dream and consoled him, to little avail, with other prizes, like four Vueltas.
But things change. I’m not saying it’s likely; you’d be hard-pressed to find even the biggest Roglic-stan who believes that he will win the Tour de France in 2025. But it could happen. And if there’s any more mentally-resilient bike rider than Primoz Roglic, he certainly doesn’t possess anywhere near the physical capabilities. Sometimes the guy who never gives up finally kicks the door in at the 11th hour.
And if not, well, it never hurts to win the Giro d’Italia.
This is the correct decision.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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