A Half-Announcement

This cycling off-season, less than two months old, is already drawing out our collective agony to a place that was almost unfathomable on October 12, when Tadej Pogacar mastered Il Lombardia for the fourth consecutive year and all was (mostly) well in the world. But since that day, there has been an impending sense of doom, as we stared down the barrel of a winter in perpetuity and no racing to keep us warm.

Now, after a (relatively) big week of news, including the transfers of Tom Pidcock and Maxim Van Gils (which will be discussed in another essay), we were treated to the UAE Team Emirates Training Camp Media Day. The most-anticipated announcement was the 2025 racing program of their star rider, Pogacar. But this press conference left more than a little to be desired.

Joxean Matxin, UAE’s manager, declared that Pogacar would race the following schedule:

UAE Tour, Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo, Gent-Wevelgem, E3 Saxo Classic, Ronde Van Vlanderen, Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Tour de France, World Championship Road Race

…with “another Grand Tour” to be decided after the routes of the Vuelta a Espana and possibly the Giro d’Italia are published, and we have to assume more races to fill in the year.

Because even with another Grand Tour in the legs, that’s not a full season for Pogacar. That “only” totals 58 race days, by my count, and Pogacar would probably be shooting for around 60-65 next year for a slightly bigger workload than in 2024, and given that most of the UAE Tour is a pancake-flat, 100-watt nothing-burger (easier than any recovery ride for even an entry-level WorldTour rider, let alone Pogi), that number could definitely creep up to 65-70 if he elects for stage races rather than more classics.

But let’s explain in some more depth why this was disappointing. First of all, fans were supposed to be given the full program. I do not fault the UAE management and Pogacar for being a bit coy at this moment, but it still is a letdown for cycling-starved junkies in mid-December.

Of course, in my mind, it was supposed to include Paris-Roubaix, dammit. I knew this was a long-shot, but I still had some delusional hope/copium that Pogacar would take the plunge into L’enfer du Nord as soon as next April. Alas, it may be for the best, if he can knock out MSR and the Vuelta next year, but as my Irish-as-hell buddy from Colorado likes to say “Por que no los dos”? (I don’t know how to input the upside-down question mark to make this Spanish grammatically correct… it means “Why not both?” for us Gringos).

But even setting aside that pipe dream of mine, I’m also disappointed to not see a commitment to the Criterium du Dauphine, Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie and/or the Tour de Suisse. This program just isn’t that fatty in the early/middle phase of the season, and Pogacar could do with knocking out a “Big Seven” one-week stage race or two before the Tour de France. He stated this sub-goal (of winning all seven) last year as he was dominating the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, so it seems strange that he would skip them all next year. Now, it is still possible he rides the Dauphine next year, as it fits fairly seamlessly into the Tour preparation assuming he skips the Giro. But still, that’s only one.

One factor likely contributing to that decision is his inclusion of the UAE Tour in the program. I believe this is mostly due to sponsor obligations (in fact, I assume that him appearing at this race next year was one of the clauses that netted him a big raise and contract extension this off-season). So sure, there are 50 million reasons to ride the UAE Tour, but none of them are adding to his legacy as the GOAT. I would much rather see him even ride Paris-Nice again as opposed to noodling around in the desert for a while before murdering everybody on Jebel Hafeet.

Another issue I have with this is the full Ardennes week. I liked better him simply parachuting into Liege last year. Liege is far more important than Amstel and Fleche. He has nothing to prove in those races; already having won them in 2023. I think that week is pretty grueling, and he would be better served saving that energy and race days for something else.

So now that we’ve established some issues, or at least I’ve aired my person grievances with, the announced schedule, let’s highlight the positives before finally speculating on what he might add.

I love the return to Strade Bianche and Milano-Sanremo. There is nothing surprising about him returning these two races. Strade is just his playground; he’ll be on very short odds to dominate the Tuscan Classic again next year. As for MSR, I think Pogacar will try to be on even better form for La Classicisma di Primavera next year than he was in 2024, as he desperately wants to add this fourth different Monument to his palmares as soon as possible. I’d bet on him winning it next year.

I also adore his ambition to return to the cobbles with G-W, E3, and Flanders. Gent-Wevelgem is probably the most surprising race in his program, as it does not suit his abilities on paper. But he is a warrior and loves racing his bike, so into the fray it is. E3 is winnable and helps prepare for De Ronde. Of course, he already has Flanders in his back pocket. But another title would help solidify his legendary status. He loves Flanders, and we all love to watch him race it. It will be a beautiful showdown with Mathieu van der Poel.

I’m happy he’ll target the Tour de France again; he simply has to. And I get the impression from his comments that he is now hungry for five or six Tours in his career, to help cement his GOAT status. Hopefully we get another gargantuan showdown between him and Jonas Vingegaard and perhaps Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic as well. The Tour route is nasty (which I will analyze in a later piece) and will challenge Pogi if he does not bring his top level. July should be another great month for cycling fans.

Of course, it is also not a surprise that he will target the World Championships in Rwanda to defend his rainbow bands and add another World Title on a different continent. If he does ride the Vuelta, it may be challenging to be in top form for this race, but he might not need to be in order to win again. The route is savage, and that will eliminate all but the best climbers in the world. And because the climbs are short, not Alpine, I don’t think Jonas will be in contention. We’ll see. I’m pretty confident if Pogi arrives healthy in Kigali, he will win another rainbow jersey.

So that’s it for the announced program. My belief is that Pogacar will ride the Vuelta and add a few more races depending on how he feels after the Tour de France.

The full program, in my view, will thus include the Dauphine, Vuelta, Tre Valli Varesine, and Lombardia. I do not think he will mess with the spring calendar with a reasonably heavy classics table and the emphasis on three Monuments. My additions will get him 68 days of racing, which is a perfect number, although with two Grand Tours, including the Tour, which next year has a bevy of sprint stages, in addition to several extremely easy days in the UAE Tour and likely a few light ones in the Dauphine, his racing fatigue will be lower than it appears from the “68” itself. That said, he rides every race to win (except pure sprint days in stage races) and attacks almost relentlessly even when the GC group is too far behind the breakaway for him to win, so in reality the pure TSS/load of this calendar is quite significant, probably a bit moreso than 2024 depending on the Vuelta and Dauphine route.

So that’s what we learned from and can speculate about the first of the Big Four (in reality, the Big One) to announce some of his 2025 schedule. We’ll be waiting for the rest of the top riders’ announcements to trickle out throughout the rest of the off-season.

Next up I have to speculate about Roglic’s plan for next year before he announces it.

Jamie