With all of the big riders done racing for the year, and just a few races remaining on the calendar in 2024 (mostly in Asia), I’m ready to start thinking about what those riders’ schedules will look like in 2025. I have just written a piece reviewing Pogi’s 2024 rampage, so I’ll start this series with Jonas Vingegaard’s potential program for next year.
I made a troll Tweet stating that he should focus on Family Time and O Gran Camino only, for the entire year, but now I will get serious.
Disclaimer: This schedule is what I think he should do, not necessarily what I think he will do. That will come at the end.
Strade Bianche, Paris-Nice, Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, World Championship Road Race, Giro dell’Emilia, Tre Valli Varesine, Il Lombardia
The main focus will be on the Giro/Tour double, but here is an explanation for each race included and some of which were omitted:
I don’t see much reason to open the season at sub-WorldTour level in Gran Camino like he has been doing the past two years. Nor do I think he should do the UAE Tour before March.
I would like to see him try Strade Bianche on March 8th, because I think he can do extremely well, and it’s the first chance of the season for him to open his account for big one-day races (in his entire career). He has a long way to go in this department, but if he wins Strade, or even shows a strong level there, it would go a long way toward convincing myself, and many other cycling fans that he is the versatile superstar we think he could be. There’s no reason that with his abilities, he can’t contend for the win here, unless Tadej Pogacar is in the race on top form.
Jonas won Tirenno-Adriatico last year, and he should do one of these stage races at this point in the season, so Paris-Nice it is, assuming ASO makes a good route for it. Jonas would be the favorite for every stage race he starts, unless Pogi is there and/or Roglic or Remco are present and in better form than they were this year.
At this point, he should be go for an altitude camp and take a long break from racing. That’s the standard practice for cyclists before big targets. I would have had him in Catalunya, but that doesn’t finish until March 30th, and it’s only one week after Paris-Nice ends, so the timing is off. I think Jonas should go for altitude before targeting two of the Ardennes in late April, Fleche and Liege. I don’t think he should do Amstel Gold race to start the the week because it does not suit him well enough and you’re always risking crashing.
I don’t think many fans have considered his potential in Fleche Wallonne, but I have felt since watching him do ridiculous performances on 10ish-minute climbs in Itzulia and the Vuelta in 2023 that he could be really good on the Mur de Huy (the steep finishing climb of Fleche). The Mur is less than three minutes, but Jonas is one of the best climbers of all time. I’m pretty confident that such a rider can do solid watts per kilogram for three minutes. And the race can always be made harder earlier with four total ascents of the Mur de Huy, 200 kilometers, and 3,000 elevations meters to mess with (that would in theory play in Jonas’ favor because of his strength and durability, while sapping the punch of most other riders). I would rank him as the top favorite if none of the other big GC riders show up (but I believe Primoz Roglic will, and Remco is a possibility).
Liege is an obvious choice. He can win this race and it’s a Monument. Thus, he has to ride in my view. Unless Pogi is in 2024 alien mode and Jonas does not step up for 2025, the Dane can contend for the victory. Why am I so sure? It’s a long, hard climbing race (usually about 260km with 4,500 meters of elevation). Jonas has been excellent on those stages in Grand Tours. The race lacks a defining long Alpine ascent, but it has plenty of climbs throughout to make the race hard early. I think Visma | Lease a Bike will do this if Jonas and Pogacar (and Remco and Roglic) are squaring off to try to take the sting out of Pog’s inevitable attack on La Redoute (and exhaust R&R). I really hope all four do Liege next year; it could be a tremendous battle. Jonas is the only one of the four who has yet to win it (the last five editions have been taken by the other three).
Then, Jonas should debut in the Giro d’Italia. He’s never ridden it before, and certainly not after he became a Grand Tour champion with a double-Tour victory. But the route usually suits him pretty well, he probably wants to add it to his palmares sooner than later, the rumored Tour de France route looks a bit soft for his liking, and Pogacar showed last year that the Giro can be a perfect building block to success in July, so I think Jonas should start the Giro next year. I do not believe Pogacar will do it again, though all of the Big Four GC riders remain question marks for their 2025 Grand Tour plans.
Then of course, Jonas will try again at the Tour de France. At this point, he is an underdog, but many, many things can happen between now and July. Remember, at this point last year, not many people thought Pogacar would destroy Jonas in the 2024 Tour. Of course, no one could have predicted Jonas’ horrific crash in April, but neither did many people think Pogacar would climb Plateau de Beille in 39 minutes. Jonas could absolutely improve this off-season and the 2025 Tour could be even faster. Or Pogacar could crash at any time and not even start the Tour. Or Jonas could crash again. Or Remco could level up beyond what anyone has ever seen. It’s impossible to predict. One thing I would bet a lot of money is Jonas starting the 2025 Tour de France, or at least having it as priority among his pre-season objectives.
After the Tour, I expect Jonas to take a break, but then I think he should build up for the World Championships in Rwanda. It is supposed to a long and extremely hilly race (I believe 270ish kilometers with 5,300ish elevation meters) so Jonas could be competitive. He’s not given the Rainbow Jersey much of an attempt since he became a world-beater, and with not much else to focus on in the aftermath of the Tour, I think he should try in 2025. Do I expect him to win? Not really. Pogacar will be hungry to defend his rainbows and is a much more proven one-day racer. But I hope Jonas goes to Africa and rides.
Emilia is a great race with a rich history and beautiful parcours. Most of the guys targeting Lombardia as their final act of the season ride Emilia and Tre Valli Varesine. So Jonas should do both of these races (I think Emilia suits him better than Tre Valli because the finishing circuit has a much steeper climb, and we saw how fast he can go up the San Luca on Stage Two of the Tour de France this year… he also broke the previous record on Pogi’s wheel).
Finally, Lombardia is a race that should be good for him. It’s difficult to imagine Pogacar loosening his grip on the Race of the Falling Leaves, but this is actually probably on paper, depending on adjustments the organizers make to the parcours each year, the one-day race that suits Jonas the best of all. It’s long and climbing-heavy (usually over 250km with nearly 5,000m vertical). Lombardia usually has longer climbs than Liege. If Jonas does not end his season after the Tour to be with his family, Lombardia should be his big finishing target. He could certainly podium, if not win it.
So that’s what I believe Jonas Vingegaard’s 2025 race schedule should look like. Of course, as with all of these, this is assuming that he has a perfect or near-perfect training build-up with no injuries or illness. We have to remember that cyclists, even the best of them, are also human. Anything can happen at any time.
Now, what do I think Jonas will actually do next year?
O Gran Camino, Paris-Nice, Itzulia Basque Country, Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Tour de France, Vuelta a Espana, Il Lombardia
I really cannot guess aside from the Tour and the fact that I believe he will ride at least two Grand Tours. But between the Giro and Vuelta, it’s pretty much a coin flip at this point.
But here goes: I think he’ll go back to Galicia for Gran Camino, try to win Paris-Nice for the first time, go back to the Basque Country, do the Ardennes with a tilt at Fleche and Liege, do a long training block, then go for a third TDF, attempt to add the Vuelta to his palmares, and indeed ride Lombardia at the end of the season as a hail-mary.
I believe there is very little chance Jonas does Strade or the World Championships. I don’t think Jonas will do the Ardennes if he chooses the Giro. I’d also be quite surprised if he did the Italian autumn classics, with perhaps Lombardia being a bit more likely if he were to ride the Vuelta.
All of this being said, it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if Jonas decided to simply ride all three Grand Tours for GC in 2025, with maybe a few preparation races before the Giro and that being it. It would be the logical step for him to take to try to overtake Pogacar’s 2024 as the greatest cycling season of all time. I don’t think he would win all three, but somebody is going to do it in my lifetime. Perhaps Pogi will do it in 2026.
Let’s see.
Next up will be my ideal schedule for Pogacar in 2025.
Jamie.
Puncheur 
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