This is an event that happened three years ago that happens once every four years.
Okay, now that I’ve got my punchline out of the way, let’s discuss the second-best part (behind Athletics) of the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad in Paris, France.
The Olympic Games for road cycling consists of two one-day races: a time trial and a road race. And they are extremely important. Winning either of these gold medals is enough to immortalize a cyclist forever. Everyone in the peloton wants an Olympic medal, though the level of desire does vary by rider. And also, the Olympic Road Road in particular is never won by the best rider due to its hard-to-control nature, which we will discuss later.
Let’s start with time trial because the race against the clock is first chronologically, taking place July 27th.
The Olympic Time trial is a huge target for any rider with a chance to win it. Historically, many of the best time trialists of all time have won the gold medal. The last four gold medalists are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara, and Primoz Roglic.
This year, as usual, most of the top TTers on Earth are gunning for gold. Some riders have gone for the Tour de France beforehand, while some have prepared in other ways.
The course is a flat 32.4 kilometers, which doesn’t do much to influence my view on the contenders. It’s a medium-length effort of perhaps 37-38 minutes on a power-based course. That means it’s a real specialists’ race, so basic watts and aerodynamics will be paramount.
The contenders are, in order of my power rankings, Remco Evenepoel, Filippo Ganna, Josh Tarling, Wout van Aert, and Brandon McNulty. And the odds from Remco, who is third favorite (Tarling is somehow number one), to Wout, who is fourth, go from 3-1 to 28-1. So really, this is a close three-horse race with two very dark horses. Perhaps Stefan Kung and Magnus Sheffield can do decently, but I don’t think they’ll compete for the victory.
Remco did the Tour de France and won a time trial there as well as finishing on the final podium. His form is uncertain, but most of the recent winners of this race did the Tour de France (Wiggins won it) the year they also won gold in the TT. I think Remco is the best time trialist in the world and he should be fine after the Tour, so he’s my favorite.
Ganna did the Giro d’Italia (where he beat Tadej Pogacar in a time trial) and the Tour of Austria (where he won a stage) recently, and clearly this is a massive target for him. He should be expected to be in peak condition.
Tarling has made this race his main target of the whole season, having ridden most the Criterium du Dauphine and his National Championships most recently. He finished second in the Dauphine TT to Remco, and won his nationals (getting seventh in the road race), and with a long specific preparation period, I think he’ll be in unseen form.
McNulty also hasn’t raced in a while, last winning the USA National Championship Time Trial and finishing second in the road race. He’s been training exceptionally well (he posts his power data on Strava) and I think is in top form.
Finally, Wout just finished a subpar Tour de France. I don’t see him being too good in Paris or likely even trying that hard.
I do think it will be quite close for the podium.
My prediction: 1). Remco Evenepoel 2). Josh Tarling+10 3). Filippo Ganna+20
The Olympic Road Race is Monument-distance. This year in Paris, it is 272.1 kilometers and features dozens of short climbs around 4-5 percent around 2-4 minutes for almost all. The total elevation gain is 2,833 meters, which sounds like a lot, but spread completely throughout 272k is not a ton. It looks like a Ronde van Vlaanderen with a few differences: there is no extended flat; it is hilly from start to finish, there are no cobbles, and there are no ultra-steep ramps like Flanders. Despite having more vertical gain, I would rank this course as less climber-friendly, even puncheur-friendly, and thus more Classics-friendly than RVV. But not by as much as other people on the interwebs are saying.
And the riders seem to agree more with the internet consensus than with more, including Tadej Pogacar, who pulled out of the Olympics the day after he won the Tour de France. His reasoning was “tiredness” from the Giro-Tour double, which is certainly understandable and believable. There is of course speculation that he did it to spite the Slovenian Federation for not selecting his fiancee, Urska Zigart, and also belief that he is not riding the race because he believes he cannot win it against Classics specialists.
Based on the teams being sent to this race, he isn’t alone. Pogacar is of course a unique rider who can win almost every race, but we don’t know if he sacrificed a bit of his Flandrien abilities this year to become a better long-climber. Most countries are sending a team leaning towards rouleurs, Classics men, and puncheurs, or some combination of the three.
Case in point is Ecuador, which due to its low position in the UCI Nations ranking, is only allotted a single rider in the road race. They have the defending gold medalist in Richard Carapaz, but they elected for Jhonathan Narvaez. At the time this was announced, Narvaez was having a better season than Carapaz by a long way, and of course the course is better suited to him. But Carapaz is understandably angry at his lack of opportunity to defend his title, and his reaction was to go light up the Tour de France, winning a stage, the KOM jersey, and combativity prize. Despite his recent turn of form, I’d still give Narvaez the slight edge based on the parcours.
So let’s discuss the other riders who are in the race. It should be noted that the riders compete for their countries, rather than their teams, so there are interesting tactical dilemmas that can arise.
My top ten favorites are Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen, Remco Evenepoel, Mattteo Jorgenson, Oier Lazkano, Wout van Aert, Ben Healy, Jasper Stuyven, Brandon McNulty, and Derek Gee
That was extremely difficult to pick, but I’m basically going off of Tour de France and Classics form from this season. Every rider in my top ten, except Brandon McNulty, rode the Tour de France to varying degrees of success. The only non-finisher among the nine was Mads Pedersen.
Of course, in normal circumstances, the man who won the Ronde van Vlaanderen with a 45k solo, Paris-Roubaix with a 60k solo (by three minutes) and podiumed Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year alone ought to win this race easily. And so MVDP is my top favorite.
Pedersen crashed and abandoned the Tour, but was sprinting pretty well to that point. He should benefit from the bit of rest and refocused training with this race in mind.
Remco clocks in as third favorite. He’s obviously on great form based on the Tour. I think this is a great course for him considering his aggressive solo displays in the past and his time trialing abilities.
Yes, I have Matteo fourth. He won Dwars Door Vlaanderen this year and came on incredibly strong in the third week of the Tour. He can handle this sort of terrain and the race should play into his abilities, which I will explain below.
My man Lazkano is next, not because he’s the fifth-best rider in the race, but because I’m biased, he showed pretty good legs in the Tour, and again, I think the race dynamics will benefit him.
Wout was not himself in the Tour, but he’s still Wout. If anybody can pull it together for the Olympic Games and finally get that big win, it’s him.
Ben Healy is another one of my dark horses who was flying in the Tour (but had nothing to show for it) and who should be good on this terrain. I think his ultra-aggressive style might finally pay off in Pars.
Jasper Stuyven has not won much in his career (though he did take MSR a few years ago), but he’s almost always there or thereabouts. He was flying in the Tour, also getting no results. Considering this is a lottery, it would make sense that he could win it.
Brandon McNulty is a great solo artist on a hilly parcours and is in good form based on his training. He almost medaled in Tokyo. I would kick myself if he won and I did not include him.
Finally, I have ninth-place TDF finisher Derek Gee as 10th favorite. He’s not going to overpower MVDP or Pederen, but he might find an opening and slip away in the finale.
Race Dynamics/Tactics:
As I alluded to with most of my favorites, this race is going to be nearly impossible to control. The teams are small and in many cases with no clear hierarchy. The course is extremely long and hilly, perfect for attackers. And it will likely be very hot. This all means that it’s quite possible a large, strong breakaway goes from early on and contests the medals. You still are going to have to be quite powerful to win, but playing one’s cards at the right moment will also be paramount. And that’s very difficult to execute over more than six hours.
I’d say there is at least a 33-percent chance none of my top ten win the race. This race has so many possible scenarios; I cannot wait to see what happens. In light of its unpredictability, I’m going to throw a hail-mary with my predictions. Here goes my medalists:
1). Oier Lazkano 2). Remco Evenepoel 3). Brandon McNulty
That would be a crazy podium, but with the race in pieces from the start, I think we will see an extremely open war of attrition, with a chess match unfolding at the same time.
Can’t wait for the Olympics to kick off.
Jamie
All information via ProCyclingStats.com
Puncheur 
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