Since yesterday was the teams presentation (an awkward and clunky affair) in Florence, I wanted to go through every team and analyze what their goals might be and whether their riders can get it done. I’ve already given a brief preview of the GC teams but I will discuss them again here in more depth.
Visma | Lease a Bike: Jonas Vingegaard, Tiesj Benoot, Matteo Jorgenson, Wilco Kelderman, Christophe Laporte, Bart Lemmen, Jan Tratnik, Wout van Aert
Goals: The third yellow jersey with Jonas, possibly a GC top 5-10 with Jorgenson, stage wins with everybody.
Outlook: Jonas’ GC bid is a massive roll of the dice coming off of his injuries. But he has to try. Visma is a hyper data-driven team, and it’s unlikely Jonas would be in Florence now if they did not believe he had a chance. And in light of that, if you can win, you have to construct a team around that goal. Their squadi is strong enough, not to compete with UAE in the mountains, but if Jonas has the legs, he will win. It’s that simple. Jorgenson is the back-up man if things go south for the Dane, or if Jonas is in the lead, can stay in the top five if he has the race of his life. Visma is pretty liberal with letting its domestiques go into breakaways (and Wout for sprints) and chase stage wins. Each of their six non-GC men will probably get their chance at some point in the Tour. Will it work out for anyone? I don’t think Wout will get involved in the early, extremely hectic bunch sprints, but they should get a stage win from one of their domestiques from a breakaway. Overall, their team is still one of the strongest in the race, but I don’t think they will achieve their goal of a third consecutive win, or even a podium finish.
UAE Team Emirates: Tadej Pogacar, Joao Almeida, Juan Ayuso, Nils Politt, Pavel Sivakov, Marc Soler, Tim Wellens, Adam Yates
Goals: A third yellow jersey for Pogi, a podium finish from one or more of their super climbing domestiques, stage wins for Pogacar
Outlook: It’s looking excellent for the oil-backed superteam heading into Pogacar’s fifth Tour de France (time really flies…) Pogi claims he has “never felt better on the bike” which should terrify the peloton, as he was already way better than his non-Jonas rivals. Yates and Almeida should be the strongest climbing domestiques in the race, Ayuso’s form is unknown but he is a Vuelta podium finisher, Politt and Wellens are ludicrously strong rouleurs, and Soler and Sivakov are good on all terrain. The chances of the first-ever podium sweep in the Tour are well above zero. Pogacar should clean up at least three stages on his way to a dominant yellow jersey victory.
Team Jayco Alula: Simon Yates, Luke Durbridge, Dylan Groenewegen, Chris Harper, Christopher Juul-Jensen, Michael Matthews, Luka Mezgec, Elmar Reinders
Goals: A GC top-five from Yates, stage wins for him, Groenewegen and Matthews
Outlook: Considering Yates finished fourth last year, and he, Groenewegen and Matthews have 11 stage wins between them in their TDF careers, Yates has been dogshit this year but was also dogshit last year before the Tour, Matthews basically podiumed two Monuments already this year, and Groenewegen just won the Dutch National Championship, all of their goals seem possible. I don’t think any of them will actually come to fruition (the top of the GC heap is way too stacked for Simon, the stages that suit Matthews Mads Pedersen will probably beat him on, and Groenewegen is unlikely to beat Jasper Philipsen in bunch sprints), but they are bringing their best squad in presumably mostly excellent form, so chapeau for that.
INEOS Grenadiers: Carlos Rodriguez, Egan Bernal, Jonathan Castroviejo, Laurens De Plus, Michal Kwiatkowski, Tom Pidcock, Geraint Thomas, Ben Turner
Goals: GC Podium with Rodriguez, stage wins with everybody else
Outlook: I’d be shocked if Rodriguez podiums this race, despite what the consensus on the internet currently is regarding other GC contenders’ propensity to fail and and exaggeration in Carlitos’ supposed level. I picked him to get fifth, just like last year, which considering the field this time around, would be excellent. That being said, they have a strong, well-rounded team for stage-hunting and should be able to snag one with one of the multiple options from a breakaway. They have traditionally been reluctant to allow their domestiques to abandon their GC leader and chase stages, but that has been changing recently. And if they have any sense of realism, they will throw the kitchen sink at breakaways on multiple stages.
Lidl-Trek: Giulio Cicconne, Julien Bernard, Tim DeClerq, Ryan Gibbons, Mads Pedersen, Toms Skujins, Jasper Stuyven, Carlos Verona
Goals: KOM jersey and stages with Cicconne, stages with Pedersen (and Skujins?)
Outlook: Cicconne won the polka-dot jersey last year and Pedersen has won a stage in the last two editions. Both are flying again this year, and with a strong support squad, I think both can happen again. And Cicconne should be one of the strongest climbers in breakaways and has a great sprint, so he should be able to get a stage too. The only thing in the way is if the GC contenders start racking up points on the mountains and knock the breakaway guys out of contention. Skujins has also been on fire this year, and he would be one of the most popular stage winners if he manages it.
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale: Felix Gall, Bruno Amirail, Sam Bennett, Dorian Godon, Paul Lapeira, Oliver Naesen, Nans Peters, Nicholas Prodhomme
Goals: GC top-five with Gall, stage wins with everybody else
Outlook: Being French, of course they claim they are going for GC with Gall, who, despite winning the Queen Stage and then climbing with Pogi and Jonas on stage 20 of last year’s TDF, hasn’t done shit this year. Top ten is unrealistic, top five is inspired by delusions of grandeur. Could he win a stage if he improves his form? Maybe. It would have to improve a lot. As for the rest of the team, Bennett should not be here and probably will not be competitive in sprints, Naesen was decent at the beginning of the season, but has not been good lately, Lapeira is the new French champion, but that doesn’t often translate to winning TDF stages, I don’t know who Prodhomme is, Peters is past it, Amirail is a rouleur domestique, Godon… is perhaps their only shot at a stage win. He’s got a really good sprint on him and won two stages of the Tour de Romandie this year. He was trash in the Dauphine though, so we’ll have to wait and see if his form bounces back.
Bahrain Victorious: Pello Bilbao, Nikias Arndt, Phil Bauhaus, Santiago Buitrago, Jack Haig, Matej Mohoric, Wout Poels, Fred Wright
Goals: GC top-10 with Buitrago and possible Bilbao, stage wins from mostly everyone
Outlook: This team won three stages last year with different riders and finished sixth in the GC with Bilbao, and this year adds Buitrago to the mix. The team has been strong this year as usual. So there’s no reason they can’t win a few stages and get one or two guys in the final GC top ten. It should be another great Tour for the other Middle Eastern squad in the World Tour.
Soudal Quick-Step: Remco Evenepoel, Jan Hirt, Yves Lampaert, Mikel Landa, Gianni Moscon, Casper Pedersen, Ilan van Wilder Louis Vervaeke
Goals: GC podium and a stage with Remco
Outlook: The prodigy finally makes his debut in the biggest race in the world as one of the Big Four GC riders. The whole team is constructed to support him in his quest for the yellow jersey, or more realistically, the podium. But Remco will try to win the race, as everybody who has any shot would do, and he certainly has a remote chance. I hope Remco races aggressively because I see that as his best chance to win stages and be competitive overall, and it’s a lot more exciting for the viewers. I picked him to finish third because I think he will, quite, simply be the third-best rider in the race.
Red Bull – Bora – Hansgrohe: Primoz Roglic, Nico Denz, Marco Haller, Jai Hindley, Bob Jungels, Matteo Sobrero, Danny van Poppel, Aleksandr Vlasov
Goals: The yellow jersey for Primoz Roglic
Outlook: The veteran Slovenian, the greatest cyclist who never won the Tour de France, tries his luck yet again in France, where he seems to be cursed. He switched teams in the off-season to guarantee leadership at this race, but ironically probably would have gotten it at his old team anyways, considering the injuries to his now-rival Jonas. Bora has a great squad to support him, but in the end it will not matter if Roglic does not have the legs to ride with Pogacar. And that’s assuming he does not crash. It is not easy to win the Tour de France, especially for Roglic. But maybe he’ll surprise most of us and pull it off. The road will decide.
Groupama – FDJ: David Gaudu, Kevin Geniets, Romain Gregoire, Stefan Kung, Valentin Madouas, Lenny Martinez, Quentin Pacher, Clement Russo
Goals: Probably a GC top-ten with Gaudu, stage wins from Gregoire, Martinez, and Madouas, and possibly the KOM jersey with Martinez or Gaudu
Outlook: The GC goal (if it exists) is quite unrealistic, so hopefully Gaudu will stage hunt. Gregoire is a punchy young guy, Martinez is a pretty good young climber, and Madouas has shown a high level in certain races in the past. But this year, the team has not impressed me. I would bet money on them doing nothing in this Tour. But they’ll try, and that should help animate the race. Maybe they’ll get a stage.
Alpecin – Deceuninck: Mathieu van der Poel, Silvan Dillier, Robbe Ghys, Soren Kragh Andersen, Axel Laurance, Jasper Philipsen, Jonas Rickaert, Gianni Vermeersch
Goals: Stage wins with MVDP, Philipsen, and Laurance?
Outlook: The dominant sprint team from last year brings another excellent line-up with the best sprinter and best lead-out man in the peloton. The sprint field is weak in this Tour, so it’s possible Philipsen wins even more than he did last year. MVDP should target a few stages from the breakaway. I’m not super optimstic that he’ll be great in this race though. Laurance is a really good puncheur who could also be dangerous from a break. But I would imagine the main objective for the team is controlling the race for bunch sprints, which Philipsen should dominate.
EF Education – EasyPost: Richard Carapaz, Alberto Bettiol, Stefan Bissegger, Rui Costa, Ben Healy, Neilson Powless, Sean Quinn, Marijn van den Berg
Goals: Stage wins from everybody
Most of them have a realistic shot at a stage win. Hopefully Carapaz falls out of GC early and goes into breakaways. And Powless does not waste time targeting the KOM jersey like he did in the last Tour. Healy makes his Tour debut and should be dangerous on a number of breakaway days. MVDB probably cannot compete in normal bunch sprints, but could do damage on the hillier days.
Lotto Dstny: Arnaud De Lie, Cedric Beullens, Victor Campanaerts, Jarrad Drizners, Sebastien Grignard, Maxim van Gils, Harm Vanhoucke, Brent van Moer
Goals: Stage wins with De Lie and van Gils
Outlook: To be honest, I don’t really know who half of these guys are. That doesn’t give me confidence for the team as a whole entering the Tour de France. But that should not really matter because De Lie and van Gils are so incredibly strong despite being quite young. Both of them have a great shot at a stage win in different scenarios. I would love to see it.
Israel – Premier Tech: Stephen Williams, Pascal Ackermann, Guillaume Boivin, Jakob Fuglsang, Derek Gee, Hugo Houle, Krists Neilandts, Jake Stewart
Goals: Gee-C? And stage wins with everybody
Outlook: This looks like a half-incredible stage-hunting team, half washed-up pack fodder. And it really ought to be half-Canadian if Mike Woods was thrown in, which would be hilarious. Williams has been amazing this year, including a win at Fleche Wallonne. Gee showed us who he is by podiuming the Dauphine against a deep climbing field. Neilandts was incredible in breakaways last year. These three guys should be lethal. On the other side of the coin, Houle managed a stage in the 2022 Tour, but has been nothing short of horrific this year, currently hanging out in 763rd in the PCS ranking for the season. The rest of the team is not looking sharp either, to put it charitably.
Cofidis: Guillaume Martin, Piet Allegart, Bryan Coquard, Simon Geschke, Jesus Herrada, Ion Izagirre, Alexis Renard, Axel Zingle
Goals: Stage wins, GC top-15 with Martin?
Outlook: The team hadn’t won a stage in 15 years until last year, when they got two. Unfortunately, Victory Lafay is gone (and doesn’t exist anymore anyway) and Izagirre is not showing the same level as he had last year. I’ll be rooting hard for Coquard to nab one, but I’m not optimistic. Martin might come 18th wit all his might and tactical nous for breakaways. It’s going to be hard to be even top 15.
Movistar: Enric Mas, Alex Aranburu, Davide Formolo, Fernando Gaviria, Oier Lazkano, Gregor Muhlberger, Nelson Oliveira, Javier Romo
Goals: GC top-five/ten with Mas, stage wins from Lazkano, Gaviria, and Aranburu
Outlook: Mas is not getting much discussion before this Tour de France, and that’s because he has not demonstrated the ability to compete for the top ten this year. I don’t know if he can even win a stage from a breakaway if he falls completely out of GC. Lazkano is by far their best option for a stage win on multiple types of terrain. I’ll be pulling hard for that.
Arkea B&B Hotels: Kevin Vauquelin, Amaury Capiot, Clement Champoussin, Arnaud Demare, Raul Garcia Pierna, Daniel Mclay, Luca Mozzato, Cristian Rodriuez
Goals: Stage win from anybody
Outlook: Vauquelin is quite talented and Mozzato somehow got third in the Tour of Flanders, but it ain’t happening for this team this year.
Inetermarche – Wanty: Louis Meintjes, Biniam Girmay, Kobe Goossens, Hugo Page, Laurenz Rex, Mike Teunissen, Gerben Thijssen, Georg Zimmerman
Goals: GC top 20 from Meintjes, stage wins from Bini
Outlook: Meintjes probably hopes for top-10, but that is not possible. Bini has a real shot at a stage win if he brings top shape and plays his cards right (gets into the right breakaway). The gravel stage might be a good option for him. The rest of the team is decent enough to support him. Thijssen might be able to top-five some sprints too.
DSM Firmenich PostNL: Romain Bardet, Warren Barguil, John Degenkolb, Nils Eekhof, Fabio Jakobsen, Oscar Onley, Frank van den Broek, Bram Welten
Goals: Stage wins from Bardet, Jakobsen, and Onley
Outlook: In Romain Bardet’s final Tour de France, he’ll hope to go out with a stage win. I don’t think he can pull it off. Jakobsen went from being one of the best sprinters in the world to unable to top-20 bunch sprints, so unless he has really turned things 180 degrees, he isn’t the guy to build a team around, and they wisely have not done that. Onley, as I wrote before is one of two or three dozen guys who have an outside shot at a stage win. We’ll see.
Astana-Qasaqstan: Mark Cavendish, Davide Ballerini, Cees Bol, Yevgeniy Federov, Michele Gazzoli, Alexey Lutsenko, Michael Morkov, Harold Tejada
Goals: The record-breaking 35th stage win for Mark Cavendish, Lutsenko maybe doing something?
Outlook: I wouldn’t count Cavendish out; he’s a master tactician and he has pretty good legs still. His lead-out isn’t going to do the job, but he can freestyle pretty well in the crazy Tour de France run-ins. Everyone is rooting for him to do it, so hopefully he’ll summon the magic one final time. Lutsenko is weird; high level at times, horrendous other times. He has won a stage before, but that was a long time ago. I don’t think he’ll do anything.
Uno-X Mobility: Magnus Cort, Jonas Abrahamsen, Odd Christian Eiking, Tobias Johannenssen, Alexander Kristoff, Johannes Kulset, Rasmus Tiller, Soren Waerenskjold
Goals: Stage wins from most of the squad, Johannessen maybe pulling off a top-15 in GC
Outlook: Cort is their best rider at this point and some people are actually picking him to win the first stage of the race (that’s not happening). But he is dangerous in sprints from breakaways. Abrahamsen has a big engine so he’ll help breakaways succeed, but they really need Cort in those breaks to finish the job. Kristoff is ostensibly their bunch sprinter, but Soren is pretty quick as well. Kristoff is having a decent year, so he could surprise us from the bunch sprints.
TotalEnergies: Steff Cras, Mathieu Burgadeau, Sandy Dujardin, Thomas Gachignard, Fabian Grellier, Jordan Jelgat, Anthony Turgis, Matteo Vercher
Goals: Hail-marys for stage podiums
Outlook: Ostensibly the worst team in the race with no one indicating they can compete for a stage win, I can forgive that due to their small budget and as a ProTeam. They will animate the race in breakaways and throw caution to the wind. Turgis somehow finished second at Milano-Sanremo two years ago, and Burgadeau, the Aldi Alaphilippe, placed second and third on two different Tour stages last year, so they have some ability. But this year, they’ve shown nothing. However, it’s the Tour de France, and they are French, so perhaps they’ll step up.
That is every team and every rider in the 2024 Tour de France. It starts TOMORROW. Let’s go.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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