Tour de France Preview

Le Grand Boucle. It’s here.

The most anticipated Tour de France in at least a decade, perhaps many decades, is upon us. The 2024 Tour de France kicks off in Florence, Italy, on June 29th. I started writing this preview on June 10th, to help ensure I got it done in time due to its expected length and my own lack of effort put into this blog in the past month.

I, for one, have never been more excited for a bike race in my lifetime. In light of that, this will be the longest essay I’ve published on this blog.

So what is it that sets this Tour apart from all that came before, at least in recent memory? Well, simply put, cycling’s Big Four will all be present at the biggest race in the world for the first time. One of those riders (tipped as the next Eddy Merckx before he even rode a professional race) makes his debut in this race, one has come heartbreakingly close to winning it in addition to several devastating crashes that knocked him out of it early twice, and the other two have each won the race twice, encapsulating the past four editions.

I’m speaking, of course, about Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Tadej Pogacar, and Jonas Vingegaard.

When all four announced early in the off-season that the Tour would be the primary objective for each of them, the speculation about how it could be the greatest tour in history immediately started making the rounds on Twitter and in cycling media. Of course, the hype machine perpetuates itself when there is not a whole lot of organic content (there are no races to discuss in December) and the media has to pump out clickbait to stay afloat. That being said, the hype was not unwarranted. These guys are good.

The power ranking in the off-season and at the beginning of the season went, according to conventional wisdom, with which I agreed was 1). Jonas 2). Pogacar 3). Roglic and 4). Remco with different-sized margins between each rider and Remco the biggest wildcard.

But the 2024 cycling season has been defined, in my view, by three things: the first, and most relevant to this discussion being mass crashes taking out major riders including three of the Big Four. The only rider who has come away unscathed is Pogi, which brings us to the second defining feature of the season so far, and that is obviously the insane dominance of the 25-year-old Slovenian. Thirdly, and far less overarching, has been the one-day excellence of Mathieu van der Poel.

Jonas, Roglic, and Remco each crashed heavily in the Basque Country in early April. All abandoned the race. Jonas had broken ribs and a punctured lung, among other injuries, Roglic major contusions and probably a concussion from a crash the day before the big one, and Remco a broken scapula and collarbone.

Pogacar, meanwhile, has had a near-flawless start to his season, with a dominant victory in Strade Bianche via an 81k solo, a bronze in Milano-Sanremo (a race which does not suit him) in which he was strangled tactically by MVDP and outsprinted by Jasper Philipsen, four stages and the GC by four minutes in Catalunya, an exhibition gold in Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and a rampage in the Giro d’Italia which included six stage wins and the GC by ten minutes.

Tadej has racked up 14 wins so far this year and is rocketing up the ProCyclingStats All-time ranking, now at 24th and the highest-ranked active rider. He has already accrued enough UCI points (5,495) to likely win the UCI ranking for the fourth year running, and he has only raced 31 days with his biggest targets still to come (Le Tour, the World Championship Road Race, and possibly to a lesser extent, the Olympic Games and Il Lombardia).

Since the Basque Country, Jonas has not raced, while Roglic and Remco did the Criterium du Dauphine, which is the traditional Tour preparation/predictor race. Roglic won the race, though not without drama, while Remco finished seventh in the final General Classification.

The Dauphine was a spectacular race with a great parcours, which made for excellent viewer entertainment, but it was probably quite stressful for R&R, even though one of them ended up winning the thing for the second time in his career.

Remco won the time trial on Stage Four with an impressive showing and took the leader’s jersey going into some hard Alpine days. Then, he dropped hard in the mountains and Roglic won two consecutive stages with his patented mountaintop sprint and carried a one-minute advantage into the final day, which included another hard finishing climb with about 20 minutes on a 9-percent gradient.

But then Roglic cracked and Matteo Jorgenson nearly stole the Dauphine, with Roglic limiting his losses as best he could to seal the victory by just eight seconds in the end. Carlos Rodriguez won the final stage ahead of Jorgenson, who had been pulling full-gas for a lot of the false-flat on the plateau at the top of the climb to try to put as much time into Roglic as possible. Remco had a better day on this stage, only losing 58 seconds to the winner and just 10 to Roglic. A “better” day is a low bar, but he lost 1:46 the day before.

The final podium consisted of Roglic, Jorgenson, and Derek Gee(!) of Israel – Premier Tech and Canada. The heavy-ish superhero of the 2023 Giro also managed to win Stage Three with a late uphill attack. My man Oier Lazkano finished 9th in the final GC as well. These heavyweights are no fluke, as this Dauphine included serious climbs with all three final days including a finish around 9 percent grade for 20-30+min.

These stages weren’t quite as demanding on paper as some of the Tour stages, which are longer and include longer climbs with more total elevation meters, but the finishing climbs in the Dauphine were actually steeper than most in the Tour. I’m not sure if those two counteracting factors favors the heavyweights or hurts them, but my guess would be that the Grand Tour factor and the fatigue carried into the third week will crack Gee, in particular, assuming he rides for GC. I think Lazkano will wisely target stages.

Anyway, back to our real GC contenders for the Big One, Jonas only started riding his bike a few weeks ago. I just do not see a scenario in which he is even at 95 percent heading into the Grand Depart, and even that almost certainly will not be enough to beat Pogacar, and maybe even the other two. He is now the biggest wildcard though, and some people are still tipping him as the big favorite, probably based on how he destroyed Pogi on a few big stages the last two years and the fact that this year’s Tour features a few monster stages for Jonas to wreak havoc. But in general, the legs matter more than the course, and I don’t see Jonas as having enough time to recover and train following his nearly two weeks spent in the hospital.

I think Remco is on an impressive improvement curve, as he explained in his post-race interview after Stage Six of the Dauphine that he pushed, for 32 minutes, a wattage that he had only been capable of for 10 minutes just weeks before. He lost 42 seconds to Roglic on that day. But Remco is going to need to keep improving at that rate to be a contender in July, and it’s extremely difficult to continue that trajectory when you’re nearing or at your peak form already. Remco is nowhere near Tour-winning form at the moment.

Roglic is probably improving as well, albeit at a slower rate than Remco, as he is likely still getting his training load back up to snuff following his Basque Country crash. But he had yet another crash in the Dauphine on Stage Five (which took out most of the field and neutralized the stage) and injured his shoulder. I don’t think that shoulder will be his downfall in Le Grand Boucle, but if I were the Bora-Hansgrohe managers, I’d be extremely worried about his inexplicable habit of choking in French races, especially on the final day, and especially when in the yellow jersey. I want to do an analysis of his heartbreaks in France, because it is uncanny. Unfortunately for his fans, even if Roglic holds the bike upright and does not collapse in the third week, it’s a pretty long shot that he is strong enough to compete with Pogi anyway.

So with how 2024 has played out, Pogacar has to be considered the heavy favorite for the Tour de France at the moment. The only thing that could hold him back is some residual fatigue from the Giro d’Italia, but I’m doubtful that will be the case. If anything, as I have written before, a Grand Tour with some targeted efforts (which for Pogacar, the Giro was) should help him in July. I think we are going to see a thermonuclear Pogi riding around France this summer.

I’ve obviously tipped my hand when it comes to predictions, but let’s now discuss each stage in-depth and then evaluate the contenders’ teams and stage hunters before I finally lay out my full GC top ten handicapping.

Stage One: Firenze-Rimini (206km): The Tour de France continues its trend of commencing with a fascinating hilly, explosive, potential GC stage. The race begins from the iconic city of Florence (Anglicized). It’s the first time the Tour de France has ever started in the Italian Peninsula, and with the winner of the Giro d’Italia the favorite for the race, this could not be a better year for it. In reality, this is a medium mountain day with over 3,800 meters of climbing and basically no flat roads for the middle 150 kilometers. The first climb is the longest and highest point in the stage, at 11.2km at 5.7 percent average. That’s probably about 25 full-gas minutes for the Tour de France peloton, but at under 6 percent, drafting will be crucial. I expect the breakaway to get away on this climb. All of the remaining six climbs are well under 20 minutes in duration, with the hardest being the middle/fourth climb of the day, the Cote de Barbotto which crests 70 kilometers from the finish line. The final three climbs wouldn’t be too hard on their own, but combined with the heavy day in the legs to that point, their back-to-back-to-back nature, and the strength of the riders in the race, this will be a savage finale. I cannot look past UAE controlling the stage with a vice grip and nuking the final few climbs to launch Pogi for a stage win and bonus seconds. That is what they tried to do last year on the first stage. The difference this year is that their team is even stronger and he is likely better than his rivals. When the best climber in the race is also the best puncheur, the tactic on a stage like this is quite simple. The only problem is that the final climb crests a full 26k from the finish, which is a long way to hold a gap should he be solo. That’s why there is a good chance the best riders will come back together and duke it out with a reduced group sprint. There’s also a decent chance a GC contender who is not razor-sharp will ship some major time on this stage. I’m thinking of Jonas dropping on one of the climbs far from the finish and UAE just gunning it for an hour-and-a-half to destroy his yellow jersey dreams on the first day. But with so many question marks over the form of the GC riders, the only thing I am sure of is UAE giving it a major go on Stage One.

Stage Two: Cesenatico-Bologna (200km): Another 200k stage in Italy with some major hills involved (this time of the short and steep variety), this stage utilizes the Giro dell’Emilia circuit in Bologna, the focus of which is the San Luca climb (2km/9.7 percent). It’s done twice here, with the final ascent topping out at 12k from the line. However, it’s not the final climb of the day, as there is a 1k 5.4 percent speed bump right after a blink-of-an-eye descent. After that, there is a 3k-ish downhill before a flat final 6ish kilometers ends the puncheur’s chance for the yellow jersey and/or a stage win in the opening weekend. I think the dynamic here will depend massively on what happened on Stage One. If Pogi wrecked everybody, UAE will go for another stage win and more GC gains. If not, other teams might be in charge of controlling the race. I still see very little chance of a breakaway succeeding; it just does not happen on the opening weekend in Grand Tours, especially Le Tour. Roglic has won the Giro dell’Emilia three times in his career, so obviously this climb suits him, but he’ll need to be in insane form to beat Pogi. I don’t see past another stage win for the New Cannibal.

Stage Three: Piacenza-Torino (229km): A ridiculously long sprint stage concludes the opening weekend in the Olympic city of Turin (Anglicized again). It took me a few looks at the route to discern why ASO made this stage so long: They wanted to get out of Italy and over the Alps as quickly as possible. The next day makes this quite clear; there is no other logical reason in 2024 to have a 230k sprint stage on the third day of the Tour de France. Anyway, as with most sprint days in Grand Tours, I’m pretty meh about this one. But because it is the Tour, and it’s in Italy for the final full day, I’ll try to tune in for the entire 5-6 hours of nothingness (for the scenery! And hopefully to listen to Carlton Kirby work himself into a lather about it). This stage will give us a clear picture of who the fastest sprinters are and whose train is best. I’m pretty sure Jasper Philipsen and his Alpecin-Deceuninck squad, which includes MVDP, will run roughshod over everybody else. It’s eerie how little the media and Twitter are talking about the sprinters in the buildup to this Tour de France, but I like that. However, there are a good number of expected bunch sprint stages in the 2024 Tour, so boringly, we will be heavily focused on the fast men for more than a third of the race.

Stage Four: Pinerolo-Valloire (138km): BANG. Straight to the high Alps for a major GC test as the Tour de France finally comes home. The highlight of this stage is the final climb, the Galibier, which peaks in the clouds at 2,627 meters above sea level. That’s major oxygen-deficit territory for men riding bikes as hard as they can up a mountain. The Galibier is not steep, averaging just 5 percent for 23.6k, but the length and altitude make it brutal. It was the Galibier in 2022 that served as the penultimate climb on the Granon Stage, which has gone down in history as the day Tadej Pogacar lost his seemingly unshakeable and interminable grip on the Tour de France. Two years later, he has yet to reclaim it. I very much hope he begins to vanquish his demons on Stage Four of this edition and flies up the legendary mountain with his GC rivals, in particular Jonas Vingegaard, well in his wake. Okay, I’ll digress from the Pogi-simping for a bit, I promise. The stage ends with a 20k fast descent. That’s enough ground to stitch some small gaps back together if you’ve been dropped but with the large gaps expected at the top of the Galibier, most positions should be fairly stable into Valloire.

Stage Five: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne-Saint Vulbas (177km): There are few hills just to animate the breakaway KOM battle (but that’s kind of pointless with the massive points on offer on stages one, two, and four. No small-time rider in the breakaway on this stage will overhaul the GC rider who will own the polka-dot jersey at this point in the race). Otherwise, this will be a sleepy sprint stage for the climbers to rest in the wheels and the big men to duke it out at the end.

Stage Six: Macon-Dijon (166km) The mustard stage as I have named it in honor of my favorite condiment should be another straightforward (boring) sprint stage.

Stage Seven: Nuits-Saint-Georges-Gevrey-Chambertin (25km) (ITT): Apparently, this medium-length time trial is in the wine country. I feel that somebody is going to need a drink after this stage ruins any GC dreams they might still have been harboring. Grand Tours continue their allergy to true flat time trials, and this one has a 1.5km 6.5 percent climb in the middle and 283 total elevation meters. With no Filippo Ganna present, I expect the GC riders to dominate this time trial. Remco will start as the favorite. With the likely exception of the young Belgian, the gaps in this TT will be determined not by parcours or rider characteristics, but by form. Jonas, Roglic, and Pogi are hard to separate in a TT like this on top form, but with various factors influencing their legs, we can’t predict it yet.

Stage Eight: Semur-en-Auxois-Colombey-les-Deux-Eglises (176km): This stage, which includes 2,302 meters of elevation gain, is literally up and down ALL day with no climbs more than seven or eight minutes long and the steepest being 1.4k at 7 percent. The finale is uphill at what appears to be about 1k at 4-5 percent. The cumulative effect of this, if raced full-gas from the gun, would likely be enough for a GC day or maaaaaybe Mads Pedersen could survive and sprint. But I doubt that. Pog and to a lesser extent Rog would be favored from the reduced group in the GC scenario. But the day after a 30-minute time trial, I don’t think UAE is going to want to juice this 4-hour stage. I suppose it could go to a breakaway, but I think at least one sprint team will be interested in pulling all day. I’ll take Trek and Alpecin controlling for a sprint and Pedersen getting the better of Philipsen.

Stage Nine: Troyes-Troyes (199km): The much-anticipated gravel stage is underwhelming when I look at the actual elevation profile. This stage takes place on the same day as the French Parliamentary elections, so its completion was in some doubt at the time of writing. This 200k race has 14 short gravel sectors with 32 total kilometers and around 2,000m vertical, but I’m not really seeing where the climbing is on the profile. The final 50k is almost pan-flat. Unless the gravel is super washboard and there are lots of technical sections, this just looks like another gimmicky/overhyped waste of a day. The gravel stage in the Giro was pretty underwhelming from my perspective, and I’m expecting this one to be similar. Maybe I’m totally off-base though. The cobbled stage in the 2022 Tour was incredible (But cobbles are a lot different from gravel!) I expect this to be a breakaway day. But If the GC teams decide they want to go for it, two-time Strade Bianche winner Pogacar would be expected to win.

After the gravel stage is a rest day in Orleans, a city known for being pivotal in the Hundred Years’ War. A teenage peasant girl called Joan of Arc led French forces in repulsing the Siege of Orleans in 1428-1429, which saved France from English dominion. That’s neat for history lovers like myself, and of course it’s nice for modern France to look back on.

But my takeaway is this: We in the Western World should all be grateful that greedy high lords no longer wage wars that slaughter millions of people in the pointless pursuit of a crown or a new territory.

So on the rest day of the Tour de France 2024, I’ll be thinking about how this race could never have happened until quite recently in human history and even still, it was interrupted twice for several years by the two World Wars. Putting technological advances aside, France, and the West as a whole, was far too poor, too violent, and too bogged down in ideological struggles (read: religious wars) to stage an international sporting competition for three weeks. I doubt a single human who lived during the Hundred Years’ War could have envisaged that in 2024, France would be at peace, prosperous, and the host of the 111th Tour de France. So let’s celebrate human progress and get back to watching the greatest sporting event in the world.

Stage Ten: Orleans-Saint-Amand-Montrond (187km): I thought I recognized this finishing city, and indeed it is Julian Alaphilippe’s hometown. Sadly, it doesn’t look like our French protagonist will be in the race. This is a pan-flat stage for the sprinters.

Stage Eleven: Evaux-les-Baines-Le Lioran (211km): It’s a long boi in the Massif Central with over 4,000 deceptive meters of vertical, consisting of mostly light rollers for about 150k before the peloton tackles four climbs in quick succession. This is a very hard finish with the third-to-last and penultimate climbs the hardest. It is certainly possible for a strong rider to attack well before the final climb because there is no flat road before the finish line. That being said, I think the breakaway will have too big of a lead by that point to get caught by the GC group. The stage is too long for the big teams to want to control. I hope I’m wrong. There could be some decent gaps among the Big Four, too. I’m quite excited for this stage.

Stage Twelve: Aurillac-Villeneuve-sur-Lot (204km): Yet another 200k+ day out in the likely scorching July heat in the middle of the country. This stage has a lot of hills in it, but it’s net downhill and the finale is flat enough that Philipsen should be able to handle it.

Stage Thirteen: Agen-Pau (171km): The Tour de France heads toward the Pyrenees with a lumpy-ish day, but I don’t think it’s hard enough to ditch the sprinters. This should be another bunch giddyup as the climbers rest their legs for a few big days in the mountains.

Stage Fourteen: Pau-Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet (152km): Three mountains and just about all of the 4k elevation meters come within the last 85km. The Tourmalet is the first climb of the day at 18.7km and 7.4 percent. The second climb is soft, but Pla d’Adet is savage: 10k at 8.7 percent which includes a brief descent. That means the first 7k of this climb averages about 10. In all, it is a solid 30-minute wall. There should be carnage here, and I’d be surprised if a breakaway makes it.

Stage Fifteen: Loudenvielle-Plateau de Beille (198km): The Queen Stage has, let’s say 5.5 climbs which are mostly quite steep and some long valleys which could ruin some GC hopes if a contender is isolated from his teammates. The race starts with the Peyresourde right out of the gate, which is 6k at 8 percent and has a wickedly steep finishing ramp. After multiple 30+minute climbs over 8 percent, and likely over 5 hours of racing, the peloton will arrive at Plateau de Beille, which is 15.8km at 7.8 percent. That’s going to take about 45 minutes and with major fatigue in the legs, there will be enormous time gaps. I don’t know if a breakaway has a shot here; the stage is so hard it will probably get killed off, and if UAE is interested, their team of climbers is perfect for this profile.

I’m fairly confident that the race will be pretty well decided by the second rest day, barring unexpected crashes or illnesses. But for viewing excitement, I hope it’s still tight at this point.

Stage Sixteen: Gruissan-Nimes (189km): It’s a flat sprint transition stage as the race begins its journey back toward the Alps. This might be the last chance for the sprinters.

Stage Seventeen: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux-Superdévoluy (178km): Sooooo many hyphens, C’MON France just pick one name for your cities. This stage looks a lot like Stage Eleven with three medium mountains in quick succession to finish the stage. The difference is that most of the first 130kkm is just false-flat uphill, and the stage is about an hour shorter than its predecessor. That makes it much easier for one team to control. The finishing mountains, which are 6.8k/7 percent, 7.6k/7.9 percent, and 3.9k/5.6 percent are absolutely tailor-made for Mr. Pogacar (he’s widely considered to be especially dominant on back-to-back 10-20 minute efforts around 7-8 percent grades, in large part because that was the profile of the Romme/Colimbiere combination on which he took three minutes on his rivals on a rainy and cool day in the Alps on Stage Eight of the 2021 Tour de France. I’m not 100 percent sold on this narrative as I believe his opponents also underperfomed that day, and I think his strong performances in cooler temperatures and rain also played a role. But it would be foolish to argue that he isn’t extremely good on this terrain.) I would be shocked if UAE didn’t mow down the breakaway for their alien to win another stage here.

Stage Eighteen: Gap-Barcelonnette (179km): It’s a pretty hilly day in the Alpine foothills, but despite having over 3,000 total vertical meters, most of the climbs are pretty easy and the finish is a false-flat drag for a while. I think this will be a breakaway battle and the GC men will agree to a truce for the day. Pedersen should try to get into the break; if he succeeds, he can probably win.

Stage Nineteen: Embrun-Isola 2000 (145km): The race finally finds itself back in the high Alps for a huge day in the saddle. There is no real flat, which explains the 4.5k altitude meters in a short stage. The three mountains featured are the Col de Vars (18.9k/5.7 percent, that’s a warm up) the Col de la Bonette, which is the highest paved road in Europe at 2,797 meters (23km at 6.9 percent), and Isola 2000, which is 16.4km at 7 percent and of course finishes above 2,000 meters. The Bonette could shred a lot of people who aren’t as good at altitude and/or are exhausted at this point. Isola is obviously quite difficult as well. There could be massive gaps, collapses, and/or heroics here. I don’t expect a breakaway to succeed on such a short, sharp day.

Stage Twenty: Nice-Col de Couillole (133km) This looks a lot like the stage before. It’s another short day with massive mountains and no valleys. The penultimate day of the Tour de France takes place in the Martime Alps. With 4,763 vertical meters in four climbs which are all quite long, it’s another opportunity for GC battles. I don’t know what will happen at this point, but it could be legendary. The final climb is extremely similar to Isola 2000, with 15.8k at 7.3 percent. Pogacar won on this climb in the 2023 Paris-Nice, but didn’t look dominant doing it, and Jonas was not at top form in that race. On paper, of course, these monster Alpine days suit Jonas far more than any GC rider, but the legs will determine who wins these stages and the GC.

Stage Twenty-One: Monaco-Nice (34km) (ITT): The final stage of the 111th Tour de France takes place in a city other than Paris for the first time in decades, and for the first time since 1989, it’s a time trial. This TT has a few climbs and then a descent and flat finish. With 728 vertical meters though, it’s not one for the pure TT specialists. I expect whoever is in yellow to win this time trial and cap off the war in style.

Team analysis (Some of these teams aren’t fully confirmed, hence why only seven riders are listed for them):

UAE Team Emirates: Tadej Pogacar, Juan Ayuso, Nils Pollitt, Adam Yates, Marc Soler, Joao Almeida, Pavel Sivakov, Tim Wellens

The team of the favorite comes with what is expected to be the strongest line-up in the race. The climbing squad should have a train of two or three guys left with Pogacar when almost every other GC contender is isolated. Yates is a podium contender even as an expected domestique. I haven’t even mentioned the other tune-up race for the Tour: The Tour de Suisse. Yates won the GC and two stages with some incredible climbing performances. Almeida was also flying in Switzerland, finishing second with two stage wins. Ayuso’s form is a question mark, but if he’s in his top shape, he will be quite useful in the mountains. Pollitt is the flat engine to pull the peloton for hours and control breakaways and his form has been excellent since joining UAE. Soler, Sivakov, and Wellens all look pretty damn good so far this year. They will be all-terrain vehicles to work on the front when Pollitt is done. Pogacar finally has a team which should dominate the race in his full service. Only a full-strength Visma | Lease a Bike could rival this insane squad, and the Yellow Bees aren’t close to full strength.

Visma | Lease a Bike: Jonas Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, Matteo Jorgenson, Tiesj Benoot, Jan Tratnik, Christophe Laporte, Wout van Aert

The man looking for the three-peat arrives with a beleaguered, but still decent, phalanx at his disposal. The bad luck has been endless for the Dutch Masters this year and continued at the Dauphine, where Dylan van Baarle and Stephen Kruijswick crashed out and were immediately ruled out of the Tour de France. The terrible injury of van Aert in Dwars door Vlaanderen knocked him out of the Giro d’Italia, but opened the door to him doing the Tour de France for the sixth consecutive time. He showed decent legs in Norway in May without much training in his legs, so he’ll be strong in July. Laporte is coming off a crash in the Giro which knocked him out of that race. His form is unknown. Tratnik rode the Giro and was going well, but we do not know how he will recover. Kuss has been garbage this year, and at this point, I’m not expecting him to come good for the Tour. He probably took a year off of his life riding all three Grand Tours last year. Benoot was strong as usual this spring and be expected to be quite useful this Tour. This is a team that will be on the back foot, forced to let UAE dictate the race.

RedBull Bora – Hansgrohe: Primoz Roglic, Jai Hindley, Aleksandr Vlasov, Danny van Poppel, Nico Denz, Matteo Sobrero, Bob Jungels, Marco Haller

Bora managed to win the Giro d’Italia in 2022 with Hindley and with a cash infusion from RedBull, signed Primoz Roglic in the off-season. Roglic takes yet another tilt at the Tour de France title with a team that was able to control the Dauphine, but will not be capable of that in July up against UAE. Vlasov was the best climbing domestique for Roglic in the Dauphine and will be helpful in the Tour, but Yates and Almeida appear stronger than him and Hindley at the moment. Van Poppel is a lead-out man who I suppose will help keep Roglic in position and hopefully safe on the chaotic sprint stages. Sobrero has been having a career year and is the third-last man in the mountain train, but he’s no match for Ayuso on any terrain. Haller is the flat man. Denz and Jungels are ATVs who rode well in the Dauphine. However, every single member of UAE’s team is better than Bora’s corresponding rider. If Roglic gets in trouble at any time, his team won’t be able to help him compared to what Pogi’s team can do.

Soudal Quck-Step: Remco Evenepoel, Mikel Landa, Casper Pedersen, Yves Lampaert, Ilan van Wilder, Louis Vervaeke, Gianni Moscon,

Remco’s squad is trying to transition from a Classics destroyer to a GC team. It hasn’t been going too well besides Remco’s insane strength. He can be quite inconsistent though. The addition of Landa this year bolstered the mountain situation, but van Wilder and Vervaeke are simply not close to the level of the climbing doms on the above teams. Moscon has shown flashes of brilliance at points in his career, but this year has done nothing. Lampaert is actually in really good shape right now, having won the opening TT of the Tour de Suisse, but at best he’s equal to Pollitt and inferior to van Aert. Casper Pedersen is an NPC. This team leaves a lot to be desired, but Remco doesn’t need much support. He’ll probably take a little time in the first TT and try to ride defensively in the mountains. You don’t really need a superteam for that. They probably should have taken Tim Merlier to hedge their bets with a top sprinter and potentially help Remco in crosswinds/tricky days like the gravel stage.

Breakaway Riders: Wout Poels, Felix Gall, Matej Mohoric, Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy, Neilson Powless, Ion Izagirre, Simon Yates, Maxim van Gils, Romain Bardet, Stephen Williams, Derek Gee, Giulio Ciccone, Toms Skujins, Tom Pidcock, Oier Lazkano, Mathieu van der Poel…

I feel like I just named half of the peloton. Doubtless, many of these guys will arrive with GC ambitions and most will quickly find that it’s too hard and/or opt for breakaways with the aim of winning a stage. Some of them did finish in the top ten last year and won a stage, but the competition is going to be even deeper this year. Some of these guys could pull off the stage win and a top ten too, some of them are pure breakaway artists. One of them has podiumed the Tour, finished second in the Vuelta, and won the Giro, and that’s Caparaz. On paper, he is far and away the best climber in this category. But I think the sport has passed him by and if he’s not in absolute peak condition, he will be relegated to stage-hunting. Simon Yates has also won a Grand Tour and finished fourth in France last year, but he’s had a shocker of a season. The best climber on this list, at this moment, is probably Ciccone, and he also has a strong uphill sprint. I would be quite surprised if he did not bag at least one stage. And of course, the World Champion MVDP, who has dominated the Classics so far this year, will be a force to be reckoned with on the less-mountainous stages. These breakaways will be ruthlessly contested and many will be a bit of a lottery.

Sprinters: Japser Philipsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Phil Bauhaus, Bryan Coquard, Marijn van den Berg, Mark Cavendish, Biniam Girmay, Mads Pedersen, Fabio Jakobsen

It’s a bit of a thin field, probably worse than in the Giro. Philipsen will probably clean up 3-5 stages, but my heart will be with Coquard and Cavendish to nab one. Coquard is in good form, and if he gets into a weaker breakaway on a hilly day and Alpecin cannot control it, he could get the job done. Cav’s form is kind of unknown but I expect he will come good for this race. Whether that will be enough to win is another matter, but it’s not impossible. I would also like to see Bini snag one, but I’m less confident of that. I do not think Wout will contest the bunch sprints, but maybe on the hillier days he’ll try. MVDP will be on leadout duty for Philipsen except when he goes in breaks. Pedersen isn’t the best bunch sprinter, but I think he’ll get one or two when his team drops Philipsen on a climby/sprinty day or he gets into a breakaway. Big Dylan might be able to take one if he gets a bit lucky. I don’t think MVDB can compete at this level yet. And Fabio is past it and on a useless team. Phil Bauhaus will probably get a few podium places but not win.

Okay, that’s it for the stages. Now back to the yellow jersey.

GC Top Ten prediction:

1). Tadej Pogacar 2). Adam Yates 3). Primoz Roglic 4). Remco Evenepoel 5). Carlos Rodriguez 6). Matteo Jorgenson 7). Egan Bernal 8). Joao Almeida 9). Santiago Buitrago 10). Mikel Landa

Pogacar will dominate this race with at least three stage wins and a big final margin. Yates will be lethal in the high mountains and as a result of pulling the peloton most of the way up the monster finishing climbs and dropping the rest of the GC men off of Pogi’s wheel, will gain time and finish in second place. Roglic will be the best of the rest. Remco will have a bad day but gain time in the first time trial (which he will win) and defend his position well. Carlos Rodriguez will finish fifth again.

6-10 is much harder to predict because people gain or lose time in breakaways, risk it for a stage win, domestiques sacrifice it for the leader, and can be less consistent. But I’m going with Jorgenson for a solid sixth despite a hard race that is not totally to his characteristics. Bernal is improving well and will be consistent in the high mountains. Almeida is the second domestique in the top ten, but he was ridiculously good in Switzerland. Simply by virtue of being there towards the end of these mountains after finishing his pulls for Pogacar, he will be high in the GC. Buitrago is a great climber who often comes good in the third week of Grand Tours. Mikel Landa just feels right for a top ten this year, even if he’ll be working for Remco most of the race.

Where is the two-time defending champion? I’m going for a DNF. Jonas will not continue the race after he realizes he cannot contend for the victory. It would be wise for him to consider the Vuelta this year, but he has already ruled that out. There’s always next year for the best GC rider of his generation.

I’ve got Pogacar becoming the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to complete the Giro/Tour double. I don’t think his legendary season will end there, either. He will certainly win some big races in the later part of the year to cement 2024 as the greatest in the modern era. But let’s wait until after the Tour to analyze that with more depth.

That’s it for the Tour de France Preview. See you in Florence in 12 days (not that I’m counting).