Giro d’Italia Preview

Welp, it’s time.

The 2024 Giro kicks off on tomorrow Saturday, May 4 from Venaria Reale.

This preview will differ from my normal Grand Tour Preview template, because I will not be bothering to preview the sprinters or breakaway artists. But I will mention the GC contenders, dissect the profile of every stage, give my take on the overall route, and finally offer some predictions. The reason for the truncated nature of this preview is because one figure looms imposingly above the race.

*All information courtesy of ProCyclingStats.com

You cannot talk about the Giro without headlining the fact that the best cyclist in the world, in imperial form, will start the race with little competition. Yes, the bike rider that this blog stans, Tadej Pogacar, makes his debut in the Giro d’Italia with dreams of the Giro-Tour double in his heart. The fact that he will aim for victory in France as well may change his approach to Italy, but so also might the injuries to the rest of the Big Four, particularly Jonas Vingegaard. Why is that?

Well, the obvious approach of UAE Team Emirates, assuming that they lived in a bubble and were unaware of the fact that Jonas’ participation in this year’s TDF is dubious at best, would be to clean up 10 stages, wear the Maglia Rosa from start to finish, win all the jerseys and of course the General Classification by 10 minutes in this Giro, with Pogacar running riot over everybody else unfortunate enough to race a bike against him. That’s what they (he in particular) like to do: destroy the competition and rack up UCI points. This approach puts all the chips in the Italian basket and just hopes for the best in France, or so conventional thinking goes.

But the second tactic goes something like this: take some time in the GC early on, grab a stage or two, and ride defensively hoping to carry top form into the French Grand Tour in July. Basically, this idea hinges on the idea that Pogacar would suffer a drop in form later in the season if he rode the Giro flat-out, and protects him from that possibility.

My preferred approach before the crashes of R&R and Jonas in Itzulia was to soft-pedal the first 1.5-2 weeks and go hard in the later stages of the race to get a few stages and win the pink jersey less-convincingly, thus allowing him to build on his form even more to arrive in France stronger. This third strategy also assumes that Pogacar cannot ride two Grand Tours at his best.

My verdict now, knowing the situation on the ground regarding his opponents, knowing a good deal about Pogacar’s abilities, knowing the route of the Giro and Tour, and knowing how well recent riders have come off of an all-out effort in Italy into France (think Tom Dumoulin’s double-2nd place in 2018, in which he pushed better power numbers in the Tour than ever, according to his coach), is for Pogacar to win as many stages as possible in the Giro. He doesn’t need to go on historic rampages like an 81k solo as he did in Strade Bianchi this year, he just needs to win narrow victories time and time again. He can probably snag the KOM jersey in the process, the sprint jersey I am less sure of, but I also don’t care about that. I don’t think he does either. His margin of victory in the final GC is irrelevant, whether it’s a realistic five minutes or fifteen, no one will remember or care if he wins eight stages from the GC group (that’s unprecedented in modern Grand Tours, even for sprinters). But most importantly in this Giro, he needs to stay on his bike and stay healthy. That’s no small task, so if he needs to give away a few stages to the breakaway or sprinters because of bad weather or danger, then he should absolutely do so. He probably can afford to give away a decent chunk of time here and there to prioritize staying safe, too.

So now that I have analyzed the dominant favorite’s approach to this year’s Giro, let’s mention the rest of the contenders for the GC (I should note that the GC field is horrendous besides Pogi, with only two GC riders ranked inside in the PCS top 50 overall present besides the Slovenian. I guess everybody is pretty heavily invested in the TDF these days).

Geraint Thomas, Ben O’Connor, Cian U, Romain Bardet, Damiano Caruso, Antonio Tiberi, Thymen Arensman, Florian Lipowitz, Juan Pedro Lopez, Dani Martinez, Luke Plapp

Wow. This podium battle is extremely wide-open, and everybody will presumably be riding for second and third. Plus, with UAE not necessarily the strongest team in the race, there could be some interesting tactics on display.

Now let’s dive into the route:

Stage 1: Venaria Reale-Torino (136km): It’s a short, explosive opening road race with significant climbs in the final two-thirds of the stage. The first ascent of the Bivio di San Vito (1.5km/8.6 percent) commences with 30 kilometers to go and should begin distancing most of the sprinters even if not paced full-gas. Immediately following is the Colle Della Madelena (7.1km/6.6 percent) which includes a few kilometers well over 8 percent. After that descent, the peloton hits a speed bump before the final ascent of the Bivio di San Vito and a fast descent to the finish line. This is absolutely a GC day, and while you cannot win the race on this first day, you can certainly lose it in a crash or drop 30 seconds. I assume UAE will smash this one and Pogacar will light up everyone on the Mur de Huy style finishing climb, take the descent with a bit of care, but still win solo and take the opening Maglia Rosa.

Stage 2: San Francesco al Campo-Santuario di Oropa (150km): This is definitely a GC day with an 11.8km/6.1 finishing climb (fake news… there are plenty of steeper ks in there) after a few warm-up ramps. This climb suits Pogacar pretty well, but then again, most climbs do. I expect him to gain around 30 to 45 seconds on all of his rivals and win this stage.

Stage 3: Novara-Fossano (165km): This is a mostly-flat day with a few little ramps to trip up the sprinters. The hardest of these is 1.2km/6.1 percent and crests 22km from the line. I think the sprinters will all survive and it will be the first showdown for the big guys.

Stage 4: Acqui Terme-Andora (187km): There is a long false-flat uphill followed by a 7ish-k 5ish percent climb up to 1,000 meters followed by a long stepped descent and then mostly flat run-in to the finish line, except for a 1.8km 4.4 percent ramp and then descent before less than a kilometer of flat to finish. Again, this should be a sprint stage.

Stage 5: Genova-Lucca (176km): ProCyclingStats really butchered the formatting on this one, making a 15k/4 percent climb at the beginning of the stage look steeper and longer than the Angliru, but alas, this is probably yet another sprint stage.

Stage 6: Viareggio-Rapolano terme (177km): The infamous gravel stage doesn’t have any major climbs, but the hills and technical nature of it should invite some GC action. The breakaway could take this one, but I imagine UAE will control for Pogacar, who is incredibly dominant on this sort of course.

Stage 7 (ITT): Foligno-Perugia (40.6km): 34km of pretty flat roads lead into 6.6km at 4.1 percent in steps (the first 1.3k are at 10.7%). That ramp should knock the heavyweights out of the running and give Pogacar the huge advantage for the stage win.

Stage 8: Spoleto-Prati di Tivo (153km): It’s the stage with the most climbing in the first week; the first real mountain test of the race. Prati di Tivo is 14.7km at 7 percent. Pogacar’s climbing record on this mountain was recently overtaken by Alexey Lutsenko in the Giro d’Abruzzo, but I don’t think that the big Kazakh will gain time on Pogacar on this stage. The fact that Pogacar ruined everybody in that edition of Tirreno-Adriatico with a massive climbing record, only for it to be eclipsed just three years later by a 74kg stage hunter shows that the level continues to go up in the peloton; you cannot merely separate pre- and post-COIVD watts. Anyways, if Pogacar has four stage wins in the first seven stages and three minutes on GC, then he might let the breakaway take this one. But if he hasn’t won enough stages and/or taken enough time, he might target this stage for a rout.

Stage 9: Avezzano-Naples (206km): One of the longest stages of the race concludes the first week. This stage has four lumps in the finale, none of which are too hard, but the combination of which should eliminate most of the sprinters. This ought to be a lightning-fast day with a breakaway smelling an opportunity, the sprint trains desperately mashing the pedals and keeping it on a tight leash, and the puncheurs directing their domestiques to pace full-gas on the ramps.

Stage 10: Pompei-Cusano Mutri (141km): After the first rest day, the riders are confronted with about 3,000 elevation meters and an 18km/5.6percent stepped finishing climb. There are plenty of climbs before that, but the first 50ish kilometers are basically flat, so the chances of a strong climbing breakaway making it seem slim if the GC teams decide to control. What that means, assuming Pogacar has not crashed or abandoned due to COVID or something at this point in the race, is that UAE will pace on this short stage for Pogi to clean yet another stage win.

Stage 11: Foiano di val Fortore-Francavilla al mare (203km): This is basically the same as the Napoli stage without the bumps at the end. There are hills out of the gate before a long stepped descent to offer a breakaway some hope, but these kinds of days don’t often lend themselves to escape artists before the third week. I predict a bunch sprint.

Stage 12: Martinsicuro-Fano (183km): After 50 PAN-flat ks, there are about a dozen climbs of varying steepness (3-9 percent) but all are under 10 minutes. With a short flat finish, it would be one for a hardy sprinter, but I think the fact that the final climb is 1.2km at over 9 percent, puncheurs are favored. And of course, the strongest rider in the peloton is Pogacar. If other teams are dumb enough to control this one, he’ll dust everyone in the reduced sprint. Otherwise, I think this one goes to a breakaway.

Stage 13: Riccione-Cento (179km): The flattest sprint stage of the whole race is unnecessarily long. This will be awful.

Stage 14: (ITT) Castiglione delle Stiviere-Desenzano del Garda (31.2km): There a few very short and not too steep hills in this long-ish time trial, but I don’t think it’s enough to stop Filippo Ganna from winning if he’s in top form. Otherwise Pogi will take this one.

Stage 15: Manerba del Garda-Livigno (Mottolino) (222km): With over 5,700 meters of elevation gain and a finish well above 2,300 meters, this is the Queen Stage. It will take nearly seven hours. It’s pretty impossible to predict whether the breakaway will get the Queen Stage or the GC group.

Stage 16: Livigno-Santa Cristina Valgardena (Monte Pana) (202km): After the second rest day the riders face another 4,000m+ of climbing. This is the infamous abuse of the Stelvio (the Cima Coppi or highest point in the Giro) which occurs near the beginning of the stage and is followed 100k of flat and slightly downhill roads. So it won’t be decisive for GC. But it should give some strong climbers a chance to escape into the breakaway. The soft finishing climb is perfect for the break to win.

Stage 17: Selva di Val Gardena-Passo Brocon(159km): Another 4,000 vertical day in a much shorter profile, this one is up and down all day. The final climb is 12k at 6.2 percent, which means UAE should control for a Pogacar mountain sprint stage win.

Stage 18: Fiera di primiero-Padova (178km): A downhill medium-length day perhaps could be one for the breakaway, but I think the sprint teams will control it.

Stage 19: Mortegliano-Sappada (157km): The beginning of this stage is false-flat uphill with some bumps before the peloton hits some actually pretty tough climbs. But the finish isn’t that hard, so I think the breakaway will stay away.

Stage 20: Alpago-Bassano del Grappa (184km): This is an insane stage to conclude the war for the Maglia Rosa. The beginning of the race (first 80k) is easy with the exception of a 1k 12 percent climb(?!) But then the Giro hits Monte Grappa twice, which is 18k at over 8 percent average gradient and includes a 1.5k 9 percent bump in the descent. That’s brutal. The second descent finishes the race. I don’t know what will happen here but this stage is hard enough to shake the GC up.

Stage 21: Roma-Roma (125km): The Giro likes to end with a bit of Roman history and this year is no different. The circuit around the Ancient city is pretty much pan-flat and should be one for the sprinters.

Overall, much has been made of the fact that the Giro includes about 11,000 fewer meters (or about 20 percent) of total elevation gain than last year. That does not make this an easy route by any means, and as usual it’s fairly back-loaded. The gaps should expand significantly in the third week, not only because people get tired, but because the stages get a lot more difficult. I actually give the organizers a lot of credit for realizing that making an uber-difficult third week and concluding the race with a mountain time trial just makes people want to wait around until the final kilometer of the final stage to try to create gaps. This year, especially with the ultra-aggressive Pogi in the race, the Giro should be more open. And the route gives him that opportunity.

Most of the commentators I follow are dismissing the race as being inevitably boring, a one-man show, etc. While I do agree that it will be a one-man show, I don’t think that’s boring. We’re lucky to be witnessing one of the greatest ever in his prime, and it’s always fitting for the best guys to win the biggest races. I am excited that he is taking on this challenge; it’s definitely the right time. I don’t know if he wins the Giro and Tour if he will attempt the Vuelta, but first he needs to do the business in Italy.

Prediction time for the final GC podium:

1). Tadej Pogacar 2). Ben O’Connor 3). Geraint Thomas

There you go. I’m taking the chalk though I think O’Connor is stronger than Thomas at this point. I’m really looking forward to the Giro. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.

I’ll be back with some daily recaps, but will likely have to consolidate some of them into weekly recaps.

Jamie