Amstel Gold Race Preview

THE ARDENNES WEEK IS UPON US.

In the words of Michael Scott: “Everybody stay calm. STAY F***CKING CALM!”

I love the Ardennes races because they are classics for climbers/puncheurs, and I always fancied myself a bit of a puncheur when I was a competitive cyclist. Of course, it’s the name of this blog for a reason.

The Amstel Gold Race is the biggest race in the Netherlands. It is the first race of the Ardennes week, and the race most suited to traditional classics riders. So let’s examine the route.

Amstel is 253km (Monument distance) with 33 (!) classified climbs. All of them are bergs, which mean they are short in duration, and most aren’t terribly steep until a few in the finale. There are 3,290 elevation meters in total. So the terrain is hard enough, if the top climbers are going for it, to get rid of the climby sprinty/classics guys, as we saw last year with Pogacar winning solo.

But as we come to the contenders, we notice that only one of the Big Six is on the start list, and none of the big climbers. I don’t expect this year to be as much of a climbers’ race because the big favorite is 75kg Mathieu van der Poel. He is looking to continue his red-hot spring with another win in Amstel Gold Race, to follow his legendary comeback victory in 2019. MVDP is in such incredible form that I think the Amstel course would be a bit of a balancing act between him and Pogacar, if the Slovenian was racing. It’s just that 3,000 vertical meters vs. the 4,500 in Liege-Bastogne-Liege (and the fact that the climbs in Liege are longer and steeper than in Amstel) that would give MVDP a chance. I don’t think he has a shot in Liege next Sunday vs. Pogi, but that is to be discussed later.

The other contenders in my view are Ben Healy, Tom Pidcock, Mattias Skjelmose, Juan Ayuso, Matteo Jorgenson, Maxim van Gils, Brandon McNulty, Toms Skujins, and Stephen Williams. I’ll rate my top five non-MVDP favorites in no particular order.

Ben Healy: Second in this race last year, he has not done much this year. But he claims he has been laser-focused on peaking for the Ardennes in this early season, and I believe him.

Tom Pidcock: My nemesis crashed in the recon of Itzulia, skipped the race, then parachuted into Paris-Roubaix and finished a very respectable 17th for such a lightweight guy. He’s done really well in this race before, arguably winning it one year when Wout van Aert was given the victory in a controversial photo finish. I think this is one of the best courses for Pidcock’s characteristics, and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he podiumed it yet again or won if MVDP crashes or something.

Mattias Skjelmose: He’s been super so far this year, was excellent last year in the Ardennes, and is simply a hill classic specialist. He has a good sprint on him, not enough to compete with MVDP, but maybe he can shake off the Dutchman on one of the later climbs and go solo.

Juan Ayuso: The winner of Itzulia is still just 21 years old. He will have made the Ardennes a huge target before his Tour de France debut in July. Strangely, PCS has taken him off the start list for Liege, but that may be a mistake. Ayuso is probably my second favorite to win this race.

Brandon McNulty: UAE will be a formidable fighting force in the hilly races as they always are. With no Pogacar until Liege, it remains to be seen who their leader will be, or if they’ll just wing it. I like McNulty to sneak away on a raid if the other contenders are isolated.

Prediction time: 1). Mathieu van der Poel 2). Tom Pidcock 3). Juan Ayuso

He’s simply inevitable. I think he’ll win with another solo rampage. The rest of the guys will not cooperate behind and the sprint will be for second and third place. I trust Pidcock to win that and Ayuso to claim third.

So that’s Amstel; looking forward to it tomorrow and the three Ardennes races.

See ya soon,

Jamie