In most cycling fans’ estimation, this is the biggest Monument on the calendar. I like it, though not as much as Flanders. Let’s discuss what makes this race unique, the parcours, and the contenders. This will be a much briefer preview than I did for Flanders, in part because I don’t see this race as being too competitive.
The special thing about Roubaix is the 55 kilometers of cobblestones (in 30 sectors) that define the race. But because the race is essentially flat, it favors heavier riders who have higher raw power outputs, and can maintain for 5.5-6 hours. There is a skill to riding the trickier cobbled sectors, but most professional cyclists are not lacking skill. It’s generally a battle between the biggest flat engines, which can bring to the fore some riders one would not expect because they don’t really shine in any other race. That being said, if the cobbles are wet and/or muddy, there is an added element of difficulty, which favors the best bike handlers. Then, of course, there is the element of luck which is almost paramount in Roubaix, because crashes and mechanicals are ubiquitous.
So Paris-Roubaix is about 260 kilometers with 55km of pave which commences after about 100 kilometers of tarmac. The three five-star sectors are Trouee d’Arenberg, Mons-en-Pevele, and Carrefour de l’Arbre. Each of these sectors are so brutal that they thin the peloton down significantly, not just due to the speed of the race, but as a result of crashes as well. The Arenberg Forest is about 100k from the finish, so as the saying goes, you can’t win the race there, but you can lose it. Pevele is about 45k out, and could be a launch pad this year for reasons to be explained soon, and Carrefour is about 15k from the line.
I guess I have to mention the chicane. In order to make the entry to Arenberg “safer”, the organizers have added a chicane just before the entrance to the sector to slow the speed of the peloton. I’m not sure it’s safer, and I honestly just do not care much about the raging debate going on social media. I just hope the riders stay safe. The way this season is going, that’s unfortunately very unlikely.
Anyways, let’s discuss some of the contenders:
Mathieu van der Poel, Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Stefan Kung, Jonathan Milan, Tim Wellens, Nils Pollitt, Tim Merlier, Christophe Laporte, Josh Tarling, Oier Lazkano
I won’t go in-depth on every rider mentioned here, but will preview a few of my top guys for this race:
MVDP is of course the heavy favorite to defend his title, win the RVV/RBX double, and win in the rainbow jersey. With the the potential for wet and muddy cobblestones, he’s an even bigger favorite.
Philipsen is considered the second favorite after finishing second last year. He would be dangerous in a sprint finish. But he was fortunate last year to basically sit in the wheels the entire race and then sprint.
Mads Pedersen is the other guy with a real claim to favorite status, but I don’t know if he’s recovered from his injuries he sustained from his crash in Dwars door Vlaanderen.
Nils Pollitt has finished second in this race before, and with a podium finish in Flanders last Sunday, I think he is going to be really good in Roubaix.
Oier Lazkano was strong in Flanders, and Roubaix suits him a lot better. I’ll be rooting for him.
Prediction time:
1). Mathieu van der Poel 2). Oier Lazkano 3). Nils Pollitt
I hope the race lives up to the hype. I want to see an epic battle for the breakaway in the 100k before the peloton hits the cobbles. The break often does well in this race, and with the right combination, it could be hard to chase down. Particularly if a rider like Lazkano gets into it, the biggest favorites might not ever see them again. But I do not think he will be allowed to escape. I see MVDP destroying everybody on Mons-en-Pevele to make sure he doesn’t get caught up in the mayhem. They’ll finish in ones and twos behind him, with my man Oier and Pollitt the strongest of the rest.
Until next time,
Jamie
Puncheur 
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