Can anybody stop Jonas Vingegaard?
An absolutely stacked climbing line-up in one of cycling’s heartlands will try.
Let’s discuss the parcours before the contenders and race dynamics.
Stage One (ITT) (10km): A 10 kilometer individual time trial with some hills. This should be close.
Stage Two (161km): With 2,312 meters of elevation gain, but only one categorized climb at the beginning of the stage (2.7km/5.2 percent) it’s hard to tell what will happen here, especially with zero sprinters in the race. I could see a breakaway taking this one.
Stage Three (191km): 3,057 meters of vertical and pretty much climbing all day. The final ascent is 6.3km/5.2 percent before a shallow descent and 10k plateau to the finish line. It would take a daring, and extremely strong GC rider to win this one solo. But I do not think the breakaway will succeed. It could be a solo Jonas or Remco or a small group sprint among GC favorites.
Stage Four (157km): This stage is a bit easier overall with less total climbing, but the final climb is much steeper (3.1km/8.3 percent) and the plateau is a little shorter. It should be contested by the GC men.
Stage Five (176km): Yet another weird design sees some hard climbs in the middle of the stage, including 5.6km at 9.1 percent, before a softer finish. The final challenge is 3.4km/7.3 percent before a descent, false-flat uphill, then another descent to the line. I think this will be taken by a GC rider as well, but it won’t be easy to hold an advantage all the way to the finish.
Stage Six (138km): By default, this is the Queen Stage with 3,472 elevation meters in seven categorized climbs. The penultimate climb is Izua (4.1km/9.1 percent). This is usually decisive as the finishing climb is soft and Izua crests 27km from the finish. There should be fireworks on this stage as the GC situation will likely be quite tight going into it.
Contenders: Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Mattias Skjelmose, Juan Ayuso, Brandon McNulty, Sepp Kuss, Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao, Jai Hindley, Santiago Buitrago, Ion Izagirre
That’s a long list. But on a soft parcours and with one of the Big Four (three of which are in the race) the third spot on the podium looks to be up for grabs.
I don’t see past Jonas, even on this route, even with this competition, for the victory. He won’t win by a lot, but he’ll win easily. Remco will, by virtue of the time trial and likely improved form from Paris-Nice, solidly finish second. Roglic should be top five, but unless he really steps up from the abysmal showing in France earlier this month, he won’t be able to compete for the podium. I like Juan Ayuso for the third podium spot; he was excellent in Tirenno-Adriatico, and the time trial should help him bank some time on the rest of the competition.
That’s my top three.
I think Jonas will be ultra-aggressive and win multiple stages, including the opening time trial, though Remco is in with a good shot at that too. The Dane is simply a better climber than everybody else, and he’ll need to attack early to make a difference on this route. He showed in O Gran Camino and Tirenno that he is willing to take risks to win stages and gain maximal time on his rivals, and he’ll need to be really good to drop Remco on these climbs. But with no Pogacar in this race, Jonas has to be a big favorite for most of the stages and GC.
I’m very curious to see how the rest of the top climbers stack up against one another; if you think you can predict the top 15 in order, let me know, because I’ll put my life savings on it at the bookies. Seriously, this field is so deep (likely deeper climbing talent than the Giro d’Italia this year will have) and so evenly-matched, that I could not imagine trying to sort them out aside from the podium. I wish there was a true MTF in the race, but I’m not sure the Basque Country has the topography to offer that.
Anyways. I am not as excited for this race as I hoped I would be, I suppose in part because I won’t be able to watch most of the stages.
Ronde van Vlaanderen Recap up next. It wasn’t a close race, unsurprisingly. Pogacar is at altitude camp and did not participate; he won’t race again until Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Wout is recovering from surgery. Paris-Roubaix is next Sunday.
Happy Easter,
Jamie.
Puncheur 
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