E3 Saxo Classic Preview

MVDP vs. WVA again.

The E3 Saxo Classic is tomorrow, March 22nd. It’s one of the biggest Cobbled Classics in Flanders, and often is used as a preparation for the two cobbled Monuments.

This is a great race; it is the closest thing to a mini-Tour of Flanders in the run-in to RVV. Last year it was a battle between Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, and Tadej Pogacar, with Wout taking the surprise victory. This year, with no Pogi in the race, it’s looking like a Big Two.

The course:

E3 is 207 kilometers from Harelbeke to Harelbeke with 2019 meters of elevation gain. There are 16 bergs, mostly tarmaced, but a few cobbled. The final climb is the Tiegemberg, which crests 21km from the finish. Then there is a descent, a little bump, before 15k of flat to the line.

Contenders:

Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, Arnaud De Lie, Matteo Jorgenson, Matej Mohoric, Tim Wellens, Michael Matthews, Oier Lazkano, Jan Tratnik

(There are plenty more riders who deserve a star, but I can’t name the whole start list).

Let’s run through my top five favorites with a form check and a team evaluation, then examine the potential race dynamics.

MVDP enters as the top dog with uncontested leadership of his team, amazing form (obvious from MSR) and simply a higher top level (perhaps the highest ever) in cobbled races like this one than anybody else in this field. This course suits him to a T, he’s uber-aggressive in non-Monuments (shorter races) and he has the legs to back it up. Even with his less-than-stellar support squad, he’s the big favorite.

WVA enters as second favorite because as two-time defending champion, this race clearly suits him, he’s one of the Big Six, and he brings a stacked team (though the race could go away from him if Tratnik rides away in a strong group, for example). Wout will be coming down from altitude and showed good legs in Kuurne already this season, so I expect his form to be near peak with only 9 days until the Ronde van Vlaanderen.

Mads Pedersen should be given honorary Flandrien status for his exploits in these races and his hard man persona. Fourth in MSR was a decent result for him, and like Wout, he should be nearing his top form for RVV and Paris-Roubaix. But I don’t see him hanging onto the two big favorites’ wheels when the moves are made early in the race.

Tim Wellens was second in Kuurne behind Wout, and showed a lot of strength in MSR working for Pogacar. I could see him getting ahead of the race with an anticipatory move from a long way out. He probably won’t be far enough ahead to ride away with the win, but it could secure him a podium finish.

This is a hard pick, because I see so many guys who deserve mention as second and third-tier favorites. But I’m going to say that Matteo Jorgenson is fifth-favorite for E3. He finished fourth in this race last year behind the three superhumans and just won Paris-Nice, so he should be in even better shape this year. Will that be enough to win? Probably not, but he could benefit from some team tactics as I will explain below.

Race Dynamics/Tactics:

Visma | Lease a Bike bring the strongest team with numerous potential winners. Christophe Laporte is missing due to illness, but besides his absence, they’ve got almost the same lineup as they did in the Opening Weekend. I assume they will use Edoardo Affini and Per Strand Hagenes and maybe Tiesj Benoot if necessary to control the beginning of the race and keep van Aert, Tratnik, Jorgenson, and Dylan van Baarle protected before they open the race with attacks anywhere between 100 and 60 kilometers from finish line. The relentless hills make the race hard to control but easy for stronger riders to stay away. If Visma LAB goes first, depending on the ferocity of the opening attacks, I envisage a group of 10-20 riders with 3-5 Vismas in it.

That being said, if MVDP goes before Visma LAB do, there might only be a group of two (or one) in the front. If I were him, that’s exactly what I would do. Don’t wait to get worked over by the yellow bees in the finale; launch a vicious attack at the first opportunity (probably the Taaienberg, 80km out) and isolate Wout. It’s just E3, not RVV, so if it doesn’t work, no biggie. If it does work, we might be looking at another Strade Bianche (80k solo). Also, MVDP can’t rely on the attritional nature of the RVV course to kill off WVA’s teammates in this race. He needs to get rid of them with aggression.

The hills come so thick and fast that teammates can only help so much until the final 15 or so kilometers. MVDP is a better puncheur on these repeated cobbled climbs than WVA, so he will probably get away and stay away to the finish. MVDP is one of the few riders in the peloton with the willingness (and probably the only one with the ability) to try something like this. C’mon man! We’ve been spoiled already with action thus far in 2024, but MVDP could really shock the cycling world if he does this. I think the Big Six are so wary of each other, and so interested in putting down magisterial performances, that they are hardly satisfied with merely winning a race like E3 anymore; they want to eviscerate the competition and leave no doubt that they are the strongest, perhaps the strongest there ever was. This is probably even more true of MVDP (though Pogi is making those sorts of noises in interviews lately) than the other five.

So there ya go. I’m not predicting an upset in terms of who will win, but I am predicting an unprecedented-in-length solo victory for the favorite. I don’t think anybody would say it’s a hot take to pick MVDP, but nobody else is predicting an 80k solo, with Wout and the rest of the bees in the field.

I’ll go with Jorgenson in second with a late solo, and Wout winning the sprint for third.

I hate to not give Oier Lazkano the victory here, but I have to be realistic. He was outgunned in Kuurne despite all of his strength, and I don’t see this race as being any different, except with way more competition. Lazkano could compete for a top-10; he may even be wise to go into the early breakaway if they let him just to get ahead of the race before it kicks off. Perhaps he’ll be even stronger next year and able to compete with WVA and MVDP, but he’ll need to take another step up. I’ll admit it: I overestimated his abilities for this season. Now that I’ve eaten crow, watch him win E3. One can dream.

Anyway, with a likely sprint stage in Catalunya tomorrow, I’ll be glued to E3, unless Pogacar goes into the breakaway in Spain 🙂

10 days from today is De Ronde, in my humble opinion, the best race on the calendar.

Itzulia Basque Country starts the day after with R&R vs. Jonas (Three/Big Four) on an amazing parcours.

Pogacar is busy ruthlessly laying waste to Catalunya.

The Tour de France starts in 100 days.

The stoke level is increasing at an exponential rate.

I’ll have a Gent-Wevelgem (Sunday 3/24) Preview coupled with an E3 recap up this weekend. Following that will be a Catalunya recap, though I’ve spoiled that one a bit already. Did anybody really expect something different to happen though?

Okay, that’s enough for now.

See ya soon.

Jamie