MSR Recap

The fastest Milano-Sanremo in history did not let us down regarding action, though the result wasn’t what this not impartial observer hoped for. I cannot say much that hasn’t been said already, but I’ll try to offer some unique takes here. But first let’s dig into the play-by-play.

The race did not go quite as expected.

Well, the first 230km or so did, but so it does every year. The breakaway was 10 riders of varying abilities, but nobody the peloton was worried about in the slightest. The only surprising thing was how tight the peloton kept the leash on those poor guys. The gap never even hit three minutes between the break and group under the marshaling of Trek and Alpecin.

UAE was expected to take control once the race hit the Capi and then the Cipressa. They did so, but it seems like they hit the Capi too hard and cooked their own team. By the tim the Cipressa came around, they were out of position and outgunned. Isaac del Toro and Tim Wellens sprinted up to the front, but that move hurt them. Del Toro did a heroic pull for about half of the Cipressa, but he couldn’t make it further than that.

At this point, the race was not looking good for Pogacar. He needed a nuclear pace on the Cipressa and the Poggio to launch away from the peloton. And with only Wellens left halfway up the Cipressa, that was unlikely to happen. Wellens did pull pretty hard the rest of the climb and caught the remainder of the breakaway, but after the descent, UAE got off the front completely and there was a massive regroupment and even another attack from one of the Bais brothers who had just been caught. That means the pace slowed way down.

A larger-than-expected peloton thus hit the Poggio and it was up to Wellens to hammer it again. He did better than expected following his work on the Cipressa, but it just wasn’t quite enough to fatigue the heavier hitters on the 3.7 percent climb. Pogačar did launch a vicious attack but it was covered quickly by not only van der Poel, but other strong men as well. The pace then slowed briefly, and Pogacar went with even more brutality and got a solid gap, but MVDP did one of the most insane closes I’ve ever seen to mostly shut it down. Pogi went over the Poggio with a gap of less than one second to MVDP who in turn held a modest margin to the peloton.

I had a look at Pogi’s Strava file from the race, and it seems he was going well over 40km/hr up a 5.5-ish percent gradient for about 40 seconds during his attack. That is just unfathomable to a normal human being. But it was barely enough to even open a gap on the rest of the top riders. Crazy stuff.

Anyways, a group of 12 came back together on the descent and flat section following the Poggio. After a few desperate attacks that looked like they might just succeed, MVDP did a massive lead-out for Jasper Philipsen who won the sprint over Michael Matthews and Pogacar in third.

So there’s your podium; three of the best buddies in the professional peloton.

Things I learned from MSR:

Pogi is stronger than ever. He said after the race it was “the easiest race ever”. It was a record-setting race that didn’t suit him. I made a long Twitter thread explaining the rest of my position that can be found here.

Philipsen has leveled up yet again as a climber/Classics rider. They broke the record on the Poggio and he almost was right on the leaders’ wheels at the top. I didn’t expect him to be able to climb that well, but maybe I should re-calibrate my expectations for MSR; it used to be a sprinters’ race. The finish is the same: 3.7km at 3.7 percent. In a Grand Tour, that would usually be a sprint stage. And Philipsen is a top shallow climber for a sprinter. Perhaps MSR will go back to being a larger bunch finish more often? With the duo of MVDP and Jasper the Master to shut down the climbers’ attacks, it just might.

That being said, the entire group of top riders has improved. It was surprising to see that the fastest two had broken the record on the Poggio for a second consecutive year, after a hard Cipressa, and after a brief souplesse near the summit of the Poggio. And there was a decent group not far from MVDP’s wheel. In short, everybody is flying.

MVDP is very unselfish (and wicked strong). His lead-out for Philipsen ruined his chance for a result, but killed off everybody else’s chances too. His near snap-close of Pogi on top of the Poggio was brutal. I think he’s as good or better than he was last year, which means he’ll be extremely difficult to beat for the rest of the spring.

Pidcock kind of proved me wrong with an 11th-place finish and nearly stole the whole thing with a late attack. He’s at a good level for him, but I’ll stick to my guns and say I still don’t think he will ever be competitive with the Big Six.

Maxim van Gils should not have been competitive on this parcours, but he got 7th. This guy is really talented, but he has a big jump to make in order to compete in the Ardennes if the big guns keep showing up.

UAE isn’t as strong as I thought, or at least the riders they brought to MSR aren’t. I expected them to have more numbers left for the Cipressa and Poggio and set a harder pace, but it did not materialize. Marc Hirschi, Diego Ulissi, and Alessandro Covi all disappointed, though in hindsight I’m not sure what I expected. They need to bring a stronger squad next time.

Filippo Ganna is flying again; he almost hung onto MVDP’s wheel on top of the Poggio. It was a mechanical issue on the descent that relegated him to a finishing position of 40th.

Alberto Bettiol is probably as good as he’s ever been; he finished 5th and was one of the best riders on the Poggio. I did not expect that.

Things I didn’t learn from MSR:

Whether Mads Pedersen (4th) is ready to challenge MVDP and Wout van Aert in Flanders and Roubaix. He didn’t quite live up to expectations at MSR, but I have a feeling he is better-suited to the hardier races.

Whether Alaphilippe will ever be competitive again. 9th place here is his best result in quite a while, but I don’t think he was 9th-strongest. He’s probably going to leave Quick-Step at the end of the year, and those French teams don’t usually get the best results out of aging stars.

How good Matteo Sobrero is. He almost stole the victory with a late attack that was countered by Pidcock and eventually shut down by MVDP. Eventually, he finished last in the group sprint with 12th. But making the front group in MSR is no small feat. He’s 26 years old and clearly better than ever, now at Bora. They must see some big things in him, because he’s slotted in the Tour de France team to support Primoz Roglic. I think he will continue to impress this year. But I’m unsure as to what his future holds; he’s only on a one-year deal with the German outfit and I don’t know what kind of rider he even is. Rooting for him to get a good contract (if he performs well, he’ll probably just renew with Bora), though.

If Pogacar will ever actually win this race despite showing up as strongest or co-strongest for as many years as long as still has his super legs. It’s still a bit of a lottery, and it’s quite hard to get a gap on the shallow climbs. He’s also marked by every single rider in the race, so any small advantage he obtains will be shut down if anybody has the legs to do it. I’d still argue Pogi’s chances are above 50 percent to eventually win this race, but he’ll need a stronger team.

That’s it for the first Monument of 2024.

Catalunya has commenced; I’ll have a recap of that up after it finishes.

We are also entering the meat of the Cobbled Classics season, and I’ll be writing a bit about those races this week, too.

Until then,

Jamie