Mathieu van der Poel in 2024

The best Classics rider in the world had a spectacular, if not prolific, 2023 season. What can he do to back that up in 2024?

Currently, MVDP is absolutely laying waste to the competition in the Cyclocross world, so far having won 11 out of 12 races, and the only defeat was the result of two crashes, a race in which he still took fifth place. He only has two races left, one of which is today, and the other is the World Championship. He is heavily favored to win both.

I am actually a bit concerned for MVDP. I know he and his managers tend to like to keep him flying most of the year, but he is in sick shape right now, and it might be difficult to hold that form all the way through late April. He has made a mess of it before, like in 2022 when he was a shell himself in the Tour de France after riding magnificently in the Giro d’Italia. My worry is that his form this CX season is simply too good and he may struggle when the road season comes along. One of the Alpecin-Deceuninck principals commented that van der Poel is better than he has ever been, which, if he just holds that form for the Classics season, should result in another couple more Monument victories. But holding peak form is savagely difficult.

Let’s back up and discuss what his schedule might look like this road season. He is one of the few big riders who has yet to announce much of his program, so I will take liberties and project what he should do.

Paris-Nice, Milano-Sanremo, E3 Saxo Classic, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris-Roubaix, Amstel Gold Race, Tour de France, Olympic Games Road Race, Vuelta a Espana, World Championship Road Race, *ChatGPT-Generated Belgian semi-classics* fin.

Paris-Nice has some stages that suit him, and he has never done it before, so why not? For a guy like MVDP, it or Tirenno-Adriatico are essentially preparation races for MSR. He will get to test his form against Mads Pedersen, Arnaud De Lie, and other puncheurs/hilly sprinters.

He will enter MSR as defending champion and presumably top favorite. The Poggio is a climb that suits his characteristics fairly well, and the race dynamics can be expected to play out in his favor (UAE-Team Emirates smashing the Poggio with Tim Wellens and then a nuclear attack from Tadej Pogacar reducing the group to three-to-six riders). MVDP showed last year he has the watts to go solo over the Poggio, as well as the descending skills to stay away. He would also be the favorite in a small group sprint if he does not get away.

He has yet to win E3 in his career despite the route ostensibly suiting him to a T. I think he should use it as his Flanders warm-up as he did last year just to tick another cobbled race off.

De Ronde is one of the only races he is confirmed to ride, and he will enter as the heavy favorite with no Pogacar present. In his five career participations, he has finished 5th (with a crash), 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd. Obviously, the course is perfect for him. It does not hurt that he tends to time his form perfectly for that first Sunday in April.

Paris-Roubaix is the other race on his schedule at the moment, and he might not even be the team leader for that one despite his status as defending champion. Jasper Philipsen finished 2nd last year and the team management has let slip some comments that perhaps Philipsen will be Alpecin’s guy this year. I think MVDP will attack early and Jasper will sit back and prepare for the sprint, should the big dog get caught. But he probably won’t get caught if he brings his legs from last year.

Amstel is the biggest race in the Netherlands and MVDP has won it before, but it makes sense to extend his spring campaign just one more week following the cobbles.

This period (Ardennes week) is the biggest point of contention for me. MVDP wants to ride Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year, a race he cannot win as long as Remco Evenepoel and Pogi are on the start list. Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard would also be virtually impossible for MVDP to defeat, but they are probably not going to race it this year. Either way, with two of the Big Four Galactico GC/Climbers smashing 4,400 meters of elevation gain with plenty of steep pitches, the Flying Dutchman, who is listed on ProCyclingStats.com at 75 kilograms, will not be competitive for the victory. He already got his top-ten result in 2020, finishing 6th in the COVID edition (I think this affected the depth of the start list and the aggressiveness of the race). I do not see him realistically doing much better than that. And the cost of extending his spring season yet another week to the final Sunday in April could severely affect his Tour de France preparation.

This is all speculative, of course, as MVDP himself has hinted that he will skip the Tour this year to focus on the Olympic Games. I strongly dislike this decision. He needs to do at least a week or two of the Tour. His single stage win in France is a big gap in his palmares; his rival Wout van Aert has won nine. Anyway, most past Olympic champions, even medalists, have ridden the Tour de France right beforehand. It is the proper preparation.

Of course MVDP will ride the Olympic Games Road Race in Paris and will be the favorite to snag the gold medal. I believe that is his top priority for the entire year, and I would agree with its position in that hierarchy. I just do not agree with his proposed method of preparation for that gold. Olympic races tend to be dicey and difficult to control, especially with smaller national teams and no radios, but I have a feeling this year will be different. The course is not insane like in Tokyo, the Big Big Six (Big Four climbers plus MVDP and Wout… we do not yet know if Jonas Vingegaard and/or Roglic will start the OGRR) have tightened their grip on the biggest races, become more versatile, and this is a race that only takes place once every four years. The Dutch are not going to let a lesser rider sail away and steal gold from MVDP, as Richard Carapaz stole gold from a likely jet-lagged Pogi in Tokyo. It will be a savagely difficult race and MVDP should win if things play out as expected.

After a bit of a rest, MVDP is likely to ride the Vuelta with the aim of completing his Grand Tour stage trilogy and preparing for the World Championship. If he is flying in Spain he could win numerous stages, but Wout and Mads Pedersen are confirmed for the Vuelta as well, so it won’t be easy.

The Worlds are in Zurich, Switzerland. I think the course is just a bit too hard for van der Poel, with Pogacar, Remco,, and WVA (Jonas, and Roglic are possible starters as well) bigger favorites. MVDP just has not shown the climbing chops so far to compete in races like Liege or this WCRR. So I think it would be a mistake to make these races a big priority for 2024.

I troll with the Lanterne Rouge “ChatGPT-generated Belgian semi-classics” (of which there are way too many) to conclude his season. He rode a few last year and won the SUPER-8 Classic. His teammate Philipsen farmed his way to 19 total victories with some of these races. Arnaud De Lie has won a lot of them already in his two-year career. But MVDP seems to like these little races and he might as well mess around with them after his main objectives of the year are done and dusted.

MVDP should focus on the Classics, Tour, Olympics, and Vuelta in 2024. He will probably win two Monuments and the Olympic Gold Medal if he is flying like he was much of last year, especially with no Pogi in De Ronde.

As I type this, MVDP is engaged in a cyclocross battle with the second-tier guys in that event. I think it’s a worrying sign that he is unable to obliterate them as he was earlier in the season; his form may be declining already. But perhaps the early fade and then rebuild for MSR and the rest of the Classics will work well for him. Most of the best endurance athletes in the worlds of cycling and distance running tend to hold near-top form (and race) for most of the year now, so what do I know? That being said, we have yet to discover what the long-term performance and health effects are from being so good, so much of the time. My best guess on the performance front is that the careers will be even shorter than they used to be. And it has been a while since I genuinely believed that elite endurance sport is particularly healthy

For instance, let’s see how long Pogacar, who hit the highest level at age 21, lasts at the top.

So I’m expecting big things from MVDP in 2024. I would wager that he wins eight races, a couple more than last year’s tally, but the same proportion of the biggest victories. I’ll give him two Monuments, the Olympic Gold Medal, and a Vuelta stage. I also still think he will win the Cyclocross World Title (for the sixth time) before the road season even kicks off.

At 29 years old, he might not have much more time at the top. It is sad to even think about that, but reality is a cruel mistress. With that in mind, he needs to win as many big races as possible to secure his legacy. I’m a fan. I hope he keeps racking them up.

Next up is a recap of the Mallorca Challenge, a look ahead for February, then in separate essay, a review of some big riders’ actual announced programs compared to what my predictions/hopes were.

Jamie