Let’s start by introducing the man: Arnaud De Lie is a 21-year-old Belgian riding for Lotto-Dstny. Weighing in at 78 kilograms, he looks to be a Classics rider/Grand Tour stage hunter in the making. De Lie has already won 19 races in two professional seasons, though only one was at WorldTour level.
Strava nerds/wattage geeks/cycling degenerates have long known of De Lie’s legendary exploits in training as he shares his rides with power data on the platform. Most recently, De Lie did 30-second efforts averaging about 1,200 watts each. To put this in perspective, a pretty good sub-elite rider of around De Lie’s weight might be able to hit 700-800 watts on such efforts, making him about 35 percent better than those guys. That is a remarkable chasm, and we do not even know what a Matthieu van der Poel could hit for this session. However, I do not think it would be much different. What sets the biggest hitters apart from a young bull like De Lie is their endurance, not their “fresh” punch.
De Lie clearly already has the explosiveness to win a race like the Ronde van Vlaanderen. I would doubt that Tadej Pogacar is doing over 15 watts per kilogram for 30 second repetitions in training (which for him would still be well over 1,000 watts) And Pogi of course won De Ronde last year over MVDP in a historic performance.
The question for me is whether De Lie can do this sort of punch after 250 kilometers of brutal racing, which is what a Monument, and especially Flanders, requires. That remains to be seen; my working theory is that young riders struggle a lot in Monuments because of the distance. But De Lie is now entering his third season as a World Tour professional. His training volume looks solid and he should be gaining the endurance to compete in the biggest one-day races. His sprint is obviously formidable; it is not hard to imagine him going toe-to-toe with Wout van Aert and MVDP in a sprint at the end of a Classic, perhaps even with extra fatigue at the end of a Monument.
So what can be expected of De Lie in 2024 and beyond? Well, he is entered in an excellent schedule for this season. He will compete in Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia, Clasica Almeria, Omloop Nieuwsblad, Le Samyn, Paris-Nice, Milano-Sanremo, E3 Saxo Classic, Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Paris Roubaix, De Brabanste Pijl, Amstel Gold Race, Eschborn-Frankfurt, Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, and Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec & Montreal.
I like the small Spanish races to warm up for Omloop. He won a small Spanish one-day race last year before finishing second in Omloop despite a crash. In the spirit of farming 1.1 races like Lotto has used him for the last two years, he will probably win Le Samyn. P-N, MSR, E3, G-W, Dwars, De Ronde, and P-R are all massive races he has to be competitive at. I think he will win a major cobbled Classic or two, whether that is Omloop, E3, G-W, or Dwars. I think his potential in MSR is strong as well; he should be able to make the front group and contest the sprint. A victory is possible but top-five should be more on the table. It will be difficult to beat any of the top four from last year (MVDP, Wout, Filippo Ganna, and Pogi).
De Ronde and Paris-Roubaix are of course any Flemish Classics rider’s biggest targets of the spring. I think he can podium Flanders with Pogi skipping it. It remains to be seen how P-R suits him; he got 50th place last year.
I am surprised he will attempt Brabantse Pilj and Amstel too; I would have shut his season down after P-R to prepare for the TDF. But if he is still clinging to form after a brutal spring, he can compete at both of these races. Amstel is probably a bit too hard for him to beat Pogi and Remco, but one just never knows with a guy like this.
After a presumed break, he will race the Tour de Suisse to warm up for the Tour de France. Results should not be as important here as honing his form for his Grand Tour debut.
I am happy to see him doing the Tour already. He can absolutely win a stage if he brings his best legs and plays his card right from a breakaway. I’ll have to review the specific stages to determine which one suits him the best.
After another presumed break, he will do the two Canadian Classics again. He will be a favorite for Quebec, while Montreal will be tough to defeat some bigger hitters on a hillier course.
He has no more races on the schedule, though Belgium may select him for the World Championships and/or Olympic Games if he performs well enough.
My final prediction for De Lie’s 2024 campaign is 12 victories, 9 at World Tour level, including a TDF stage and a major Cobbled Classic. He will also podium a Monument.
In the rest of his career, it is early to predict his final tally of course. But with MVDP and WVA nearing 30 years old, De Lie is the perfect age to take the reins as King of the Classics. Is he the next Tom Boonen? You’re not supposed to say this unless you are a member of the Belgian media, but yes, he is.
Lots more coming soon.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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