This race delivered some surprises and a surprising level of excitement. Disclaimer: I watched none of the stages live due to the race taking place in Australia, which is in a very different time zone to the one I live in. Thanks to NBC’s YouTube channel, I was able to watch the extended highlights of the relevant stages (half of the stages were absolute snoozefests).
Sam Welsford and his Bora train easily cleaned up all three sprints. He looks to be a top contender for the easy sprint stages in the Giro d’Italia this year. I rate his 10 second power up there with just about anybody’s, the question is could Bora match Alepcin’s train and then could he go toe-to-toe with Jasper Philipsen in the insanity of a Tour de France sprint run-in? I would lean towards no at this point, but he is improving rapidly and could get to that level next year. We will see. Bora, anyway, are all-in for Primoz Roglic at the Tour de France for 2024 and probably 2025 too, so Welsford will have to make peace with the Giro and possibly Vuelta with a truncated lead-out train.
Stage two was a stage for a reduced group sprint or an opportunist to steal a march on a disorganized peloton. The latter was the winning scenario. After a few attacks, including by Luke Plapp and Jhonathan Narvaez (Plappy sabotaged the move by refusing to pull, which was a mistake) Isaac del Toro via Mexico and UAE – Team Emirates did a ridiculous 1-kilometer solo and held off the Israel – Premier Tech led peloton to win a WorldTour race in his second race day, at age 20, in a stage that did not particularly suit his characteristics. He also took the leader’s jersey.
Cycling Twitter absolutely exploded with hype for the young climber. Will he ride the Ardennes? Get leadership in a more prestigious one-week race this year? Will UAE send him to the Vuelta? Is he the next Pogacar? Can he win a Grand Tour in a year or two? Who knows what the future holds for the whippet in 2024 and beyond, but I would advise caution for the fans and especially his team in terms of hype. He is obviously quite young, presumably still mastering English, and adjusting to life in Europe and in the WorldTour. Even if he does not win another race this whole season, it will have been a successful introduction to the European peloton. That being said, UAE probably has (another) pretty special talent on their hands, and if he is able to win this year, he should.
I’d send him to a few races like Tour de Romandie this season, and if he is competitive there and still flying in the late summer, throw him into the Vuelta. Perhaps he could ride Fleche Wallonne for experience, but Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a different beast. I have a difficult time imagining this kid could already compete for 260 kilometers with 4,500 meters elevation gain. Amstel Gold Race is also 260 kilometers and notably quite dangerous, so he should probably skip it this year.
Back in Australia, Stage Five included two ascents of Willunga Hill. There was a tailwind, and the top three riders broke Richie Porte’s record. Oscar Onley, still just 21 years old and riding for DSM (I refuse to write their ridiculous full team name), won in a sprint over Stephen Williams and Narvaez. Del Toro finished a few seconds back and surrendered the leader’s jersey to Williams, who went into the final stage on the exact same time as Onley, with Narvaez in third position. Onley shares his rides on Strava and did some solid power numbers on Willunga (nowhere near what the Big Four could do, but a nice performance).
Stage 6 was the final war including three reps of Mount Lofty. Williams managed to outsprint Narvaez and del Toro after Onley was dropped. That was the final GC podium as well.
It’s a great win for Williams and Israel – Premier Tech, who bagged a great haul of much-needed UCI points as the relegation/promotion battle heats up for the 2025 cycle. It is also a solid podium finish for del Toro and Narvaez for INEOS Grenadiers, who looks good going into the Classics season.
My final take here is that Visma-Lease a Bike’s scouting is unrivaled. They signed Bart Lemmen in the off-season based on essentially a few power tests (presumably lactate-based) they did with him. He’s a former Dutch Air Force Captain who came to cycling later than almost every other pro these days. No other World Tour team would have signed him based on his lack of results. But Visma saw his potential, and he snagged a fifth place in the final GC here. That level of detail in building a team is what separates them, and UAE to a lesser extent, from the rest of the professional peloton right now.
Australia spoiled us with some pretty exciting racing in January to kick off the 2024 WorldTour season. Now we are looking at some big gaps in the schedule before the season begins in earnest in March.
Let’s hope the time flies by.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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