Tour Down Under Preview

The 2024 World Tour season kicks off on Tuesday, January 16 in Australia with the 24th Tour Down Under. This is a six-day stage race that takes place exclusively in the hills around Adelaide, South Australia. The field for stage wins and the GC is wide-open, but let’s examine the parcours before running through the contenders.

Stage 1: Tanuda-Tanuda (144km) There is a 1k 5.2 percent climb repeated three times throughout the course, with the final ascent cresting about 12 kilometers from the finish. That will not be enough to damage the top sprinters. This will be a bunch sprint.

Stage 2: Norwood-Lobethal (141.6km) A hilly-ish day with 2,269 meters of climbing in another short stage. With a 1.6k 7.5 percent climb done three times and some other lumps and bumps. This one will not be a bunch sprint; I’d say a reduced peloton fighting it out is the most likely.

Stage 3: Tea Tree Gully-Campbelltown (145km) No hills of significance at all on this one; a nailed-on bunch kick.

Stage 4: Murray Bridge-Port Elliot (136km) Another bunch sprint.

Stage 5: Christies Beach-Willunga Hill (129.3km) Two ascents of Willunga Hill (3.4km @7.3 percent) characterize the most famous stage in the Tour Down Under. This is a proper GC day if one can call a 6-minute climb repeated twice that.

Stage 6: Unley-Mount Lofty (128.2km) The hilliest stage does three ascents of Mount Lofty (1.6km @6.5 percent) and finishes at the summit. This stage produced great action last year, though looking at the profile it is not really that difficult for a World Tour race.

Sprinters: It is difficult to look past Caleb Ewan to clean up the sprints if he brings anywhere near his top form. The next man would be Phil Bauhaus. Sam Welsford of Bora-Hansgrohe has been improving rapidly. My wild-card for the sprints is Filippo Ganna. Biniam Girmay is quick but I think he needs more hills to get the job done; he was nowhere in flat sprints last season. And he is still recovering from a bad crash in the Ronde van Vlaanderen last year. I hope he finds his way back to his 2022 spring level. But in the TdU, I think Ewan will get the job done on the bunch sprints. Ganna might snag a few podiums and bonus seconds.

GC riders: Simon Yates stands alone as a top-10 GC rider in the world (and former Grand Tour winner) entered in this race. The next-best placed GC rider in the ProCyclingStats.com GC ranking is Jack Haig in 29th! So obviously, the field here is not up to snuff for a World Tour race. Yates’ form is totally unknown, and the course is not difficult enough by a long shot for a climber like him to make much of a difference uphill. I think Ganna is in the GC conversation. There are so many names that could compete for a top-five or podium with jet lag, random form, and an easy parcours accounted for, but for me, Oscar Onley, Milan Vader, Luke Plapp, and my biggest dark horse Isaac del Toro, stand out as the men with the potential to challenge Yates and perhaps Ganna on the final two stages.

GC Podium Prediction: 1). Filippo Ganna 2). Simon Yates 3). Milan Vader

Can’t wait for the season to start.