(According to me):
Volta ao Algarve em Bicliceta, Strade Bianchi, Paris-Nice, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta a Espana, World Championships Road Race, Il Lombardia
Here is my thinking on each race:
Algarve is just a warm-up race in Portugal in which he would likely battle Pogacar (and I selfishly want to see the champions going at it in February).
Strade Bianchi is the perfect preparation for the gravel roads on Stage 9 of the Tour de France next year. It is also a race I believe Vingegaard can win if things break his way and Pogi and Remco (I expect the Belgian to debut in Strade next year as well) do not bring their best form. For him to be considered a true legend of the sport he needs to add some big one-day races to his palmares.
Paris-Nice was the scene of his worst performance last season, and he ought to right the ship this year. He will win if the profile is as expected and he brings his best legs.
Liege is another one-day race he can win. A 6,000 kilojoule day out of course suits Jonas, and repeated climbs tend to go well for him. Some might say the climbs in this race are not long enough for him to perform, but he massively improved his sub-10 minute climbing efforts last year. I would say he could win Fleche Wallonne, but I think with two Grand Tours on the docket and other stage races in mind, it is better to keep the Ardennes week to just one day.
I am 75 percent confident he will ride the Dauphine over the TdS, but I would like to see him add the Swiss race to his palmares rather than win the Dauphine again in preparation for Le Grand Boucle. I tend to lean towards diversity of a palmares rather than repeating success in the same races, unless there is a massive difference in prestige in said races. The Dauphine is marginally more prestigious, but he can always go back in subsequent years.
The Tour de France is of course 100 percent confirmed already. Jonas is happy with the route and will enter the lap of (Southern) France as the heavy favorite if he is healthy. As much as us diehard fans like to make it seem like all races matter in a close hierarchy, the Tour de France is probably worth at least double what the second-most prestigious race (probably the Giro d’Italia, though with the recent list of winners aside from Roglic, I personally dislike its position) is. Anyway, Jonas needs to (and will) take good care to ensure he is at tip-top form in July to do the three-peat. Jumbo-Visma never won the Tour before Jonas; they are not going to loosen their grip on it.
I believe he will take another crack at La Vuelta Ciclista a Espana as well. He was the strongest rider in 2023 and generously (mostly) allowed the victory to go to his teammate, Sepp Kuss. But I am certain Jonas would like to win all three Grand Tours in addition to stacking yellow jerseys up. If he wins La Vuelta in 2024 he should go for the unprecedented 2025 Grand Tour sweep. He can win five Grand Tours in a row. He will win the Giro d’Italia that year and will have to attempt the Giro/Tour double (which would likely give him his fourth Tour victory). Why not send it in Spain afterwards? He is that good.
A tough World Championship in Switzerland is worth his attention after the Grand Tour season. He might as well give it a go. Pogi will likely start as the favorite, but as I said before, Jonas needs some one-day achievements in his palmares. That being said, I’d put his odds of showing up in Zurich at less than 25 percent.
Lombardia would just be another chance to add to his season. It suits him well, and it is a Monument. There is not much reason not to go for it, unless his form is obviously dipping. But again, with the Vuelta in the legs, he will probably shut it down before the Italian Autumn. If that is a calculated plan to do in 2025 what I hope he does, then I am all for him skipping Lombardia.
It is quite apparent that Jonas Vingegaard is a generational Grand Tour talent. He will need to start the Giro in 2025. For next year, though, with the schedule I have laid out, he can add two Grand Tours, including the third Big One to his palmares. He can podium or win a Monument in Liege/Lombardia. He can claim a few one-week stage races he has yet to, and begin the journey to all seven (and prevent Roglic from being the first to achieve the feat in Switzerland). He can take a stab at an unusual WCRR which gives him a roll of the dice. And he can try a new and different race which will help his comfort levels when the Tour de France finds gravel, Strade Bianchi. The only thing I could see him doing that I have not included is the Olympic Games, but the road race does not suit him, and I believe you cannot ride the time trial without participating in the road race.
It is a demanding schedule but Jonas is capable of handling it.
Remco Evenepoel next up!
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