The best cyclist on Earth is rumored to start the Italian Grand Tour next year. Should he?
This topic has already been discussed ad nauseam on the normal cycling podcasts. But I will try to make some unique points here (not that I expect my readership to be quite as obsessed with cycling content as I am).
My first reaction as the rumor was gaining traction and the UAE Team manager tossed the idea out into the media was that if Pogi set foot in Italy in May of 2024, he would be essentially conceding defeat in Le Tour de France next year. I still believe that. There is little possibility of the Slovenian skipping next year’s Tour, but intentionally going into the race without proper preparation, exhausted from a lap of Italy would not help his chances of defeating Vingegaard. More to the point, though, is that Pogacar would be attempting to salvage his season before it even started by pummeling a likely weak field into submission in the Giro, assuming he subsequently lost the Tour.
This is just reality, not a judgement of the thought process: “IF I cannot conquer France, Italy is a nice consolation prize.”
Then again, according to Pogacar’s coach, who was once a professor at my brother’s University, the wunderkind was pushing his best watts ever after the 2023 Spring Classics season, which on the Slovenian’s calendar was grueling, with victories in the Ronde van Vlaanderen, Amstel Gold Race, Fleche Wallonne, and likely in Liege-Bastogne-Liege if he had not broken his wrist. He is generally flying after a bunch of hard racing. So perhaps a (somewhat soft) Grand Tour in the legs is the best preparation for Le Grand Boucle. And next year’s Giro both in terms of route profile and competition is looking pretty soft, especially for Pogacar.
Speaking of which, I have not discussed the profile at all yet. Again, I am saving my in-depth analysis for May, but in short, it looks beautifully suited to Pogi (And one could write a long think-piece about how the weather in the Giro is far more palatable for Pogacar than in July in France). I have suspicions that the organizers even considered his potential participation when drawing the route, attempting to lure him from Slovenia across the Julian Alps into the Italian Peninsula!* Such is the galactic popularity of Tadej (and RCS, the organizer of the race, would probably pay him a handsome appearance fee of several million Euros, exemplifying the beautiful duality of the sport).
*I’m aware he now lives in Monaco.
I am also aware of the massive sponsorship pressure the team faces when considering sending Pogi to Italy. The government of the United Arab Emirates wants the best rider to be in his best form for the biggest race of the year. Every year. It is that simple. Having him ride the Giro puts that in jeopardy.
The hierarchy of GC leadership at UAE-Team Emirates is often shrouded in mystery and similarly often the site of internecine warfare, with the exception of when Pogacar is in the race. Then, even a man who podiumed the Tour de France in 2023, and won many other prestigious races, Adam Yates falls into a domestique role. Juan Ayuso and Joao Almeida almost never race with Pogacar, and I have read on Twitter that it is even in their contracts that they will never be obligated to pull for him. I’m not sure this is true, but Almeida is rumored to go to the Tour next year, and it will be curious to see what his role is. He probably cannot compete even for a top-10 position, but I doubt he realizes this.
The rest of the questions surrounding his participation in the Giro d’Italia generally center on his race program next year. This is a difficult one to predict besides the strange decision that was leaked/rumored to open at the Volta Algarve and Figuera Champions’ Classic in Portugal in February. I will address his calendar choices when he announces it, but for now I will offer what I would like to see him do, all subject to route profiles!
Strade Bianchi, Milano-Sanremo, Volta Ciclista a Catalunya, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Giro d’Italia (!), Tour de France, Olympic Games Road Race, Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, World Championship Road Race, Tre Valli Varesine, Il Lombardia.
So yes, Pogacar should ride the 2024 Giro d’Italia. He will likely win it and I believe it will actually help him in the Tour de France. If he comes second in the Tour again, he will have to look toward a heavy, heavy Classics program, shooting the moon at one-weekers, and a tilt at the Vuelta in 2025. The Tour is still possible again in his career, but knocking out the Grand Tour trilogy is important too. There are still many, many races, he can win, but has not yet. He won’t make much of a dent in that list in 2024 with the calendar I have just laid out, but the Giro is oh-so-essential to his palmares that it is worth prioritizing next year. And nearing or in the prime of his career at age 25, he needs to start picking those races off rather than riding the UAE Tour every year, a fact even he realized this year by dominating the far more prestigious Paris-Nice rather than plowing around in the Desert in February.
I enjoyed doing this calendar so I will probably write a few more pieces featuring big riders’ potential 2024 race programs. I’ll write Vingegaard’s program from my perspective next.
Let’s hope we are blessed with Pogi in Italy AND France next year.
Jamie
Puncheur 
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