The traditional post-Tour de France Classic has a special flavor this year. Less than a month ago, the Tour de France set off from the Basque Country for a journey of 3,400+ kilometers. Tomorrow, the WorldTour peloton returns to one of cycling’s heartlands.
In this post, I’ll preview the Parcours, run through a list of contenders with the available startlist (courtesy of ProCyclingStats.com), before picking a podium.
The race is 230.3 kilometers with a shade over 4,000 meters of total elevation gain. In the first 150 kilometers of the race, there are numerous climbs in the 3-6 percent zone, ranging from 3-7 kilometers in length. The race will probably pick up on the famous Erlaitz climb, which is 4 kilometers averaging 10.4 percent, cresting about 74 kilometers from the line. Then there is a descent, short-ish valley, 4.1k 7.3 percent climb, descent, longer valley, before the final climb, the Murgil Tontorra, which is another savage one: 2.1k@9.8 percent. A quick descent and a short flat road shepherds the riders to the finish line.
So it is a course that, if ridden aggressively, certainly advantages climbers. The list of winners is a strange one, but that may be down to varying forms and motivations following the Tour de France. Not many big riders specifically target this race; a good result is often the result of some carryover fitness from the lap of France. And the nature of the race tends to suit puncheurs rather than GC riders. This year especially, with the World Championships just a week away (rather than after the Vuelta as they usually are), the startlist does not look particularly strong for a WorldTour Classic.
That being said, Remco Evenepoel has put in a solid training block in the Italian Alps, and is gearing up for the Vuelta. He can be expected to be in near-peak condition. He has already won this race twice, the course suits him perfectly, and he will enter as the heavy favorite.
The rest of the contenders appear to be men like Ben Healy, Felix Gall, Marc Hirshi, Juan Ayuso, Pello Bilbao, Carlos Rodriguez, and Ion Izagirre.
I will be honest, I rarely watch much of this race. It does not speak to me the way De Ronde, Lombardia and other Classics do. But I’ll give it my best effort tomorrow.
I do not see any scenario other than a Remco long-range attack blowing the race to smithereens. Second will go to Ben Healy and third will be for Pello Bilbao.
Puncheur 
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