It’s been another tremendous week of racing in France. Viewers have been lucky to see such a great battle. This is the best Tour I have ever seen! Let’s look back on week two before discussing what is to come.
Stage 10: An epic battle for the breakaway, eventually won by Pello Bilbao, who moved up to 5th on GC.
Stage 11: A sprint stage won by Jasper Philipsen.
Stage 12: Another all-out war to establish a breakaway, which Ion Izagirre won. Jorgenson rode to a strong third place.
Stage 13: A strong 20-man breakaway formed fairly quickly and rolled turns on the flat run-in to the Grand Colombier. UAE immediately started controlling the race with their big rouleurs (Langen and Bjerg) keeping the gap tight at 1:30. However, it soon became apparent that the breakaway was toying with them, not riding all-out. By the time they hit the base of the Grand Colombier, the break had 4 minutes, and UAE had a desperate chase on their hands to get Pogi the stage win. They would not succeed, as Michal Kwiatkowski rode the climb of his life to win the stage over Maxim Van Gils. Pogacar had done a nuclear sprint and claimed third place, gaining four seconds, plus four bonus seconds, on Jonas. The gap for the victory of the Tour de France stood at nine seconds.
Stage 14: Jumbo-Visma came to play. They used their entire team from the gun to strangle the breakaway. I think their plan was to make the race as hard as possible for Pogacar in the climbs before the Joux Plane. It did not work to crack Pogi, but he was unable to take time on Jonas. The final climb was quite bizarre. After Jumbo-Visma had pulled all day, Pogacar sent Majka to the front to set a pace, which caused the Pole to quickly crack. Pogacar eventually attacked and built a lead of a few seconds, but Jonas crawled agonizingly back to his wheel. The two had quickly put a minute into third on the road, Carlos Rodriguez of Ineos Grenadiers, who was sitting fourth on GC after climbing brilliantly in the second week. Everybody else was blown out the back of the race. But after the two superhumans started basically trackstanding at the end of the climb, Rodriguez and Adam Yates came back over the crest. Before that happened, however, one of the worst incidents thus far in the race occurred. With bonus seconds on offer at the top of the Joux Plane, Pogi started his sprint about 500 meters from the summit. But he quickly had to sit down as the motorbikes in front of the race were too close and blocked his attack. He then royally butchered the final sprint and Jonas took first place over the top of the climb, and eight bonus seconds to Pogi’s five. So essentially, the motorbikes cost Pogacar a delta of six seconds. After Rodriguez and Yates came back, the Spaniard attacked on the descent, which was technical and dangerous, and would not be seen again. He won the stage and Pogacar sprinted to second, with Jonas on his wheel in third. So Pogi’s bonus seconds had gained back two at the finish line; the GC difference now stood at 10 seconds.
Stage 15: Wout van Aert’s desperation to win a stage saw him working ridiculously hard in the early stages of the race to form a breakaway. And a massive, superstrong one did. 30 riders with engines, climbers, and domestiques gained a small advantage. Jumbo-Visma immediately got on the front of the peloton to set what could be expected to be a vicious pace all day. Hanging just 20 seconds behind the break, Sepp Kuss would hit a fan’s outstretched arm, crash, and cause a mass pileup in the peloton. Nathan van Hooydonk was badly injured, but stayed in the race. I have to believe that Jumbo abandoned their plan for the day (which was probably the same as the day before) after two of their domestiques were injured. The breakaway hammered away up the road and quickly took eight minutes. It looked like a done deal until the engine that is Dylan van Baarle pulled back two minutes. I wondered if UAE might have been interested in joining the chase at that point. 6ish minutes with 60k to go in a mountain stage is potentially doable depending on how good the climbers are in the break, it is less than a two-hour investment of team resources and Tadej Pogacar would be the heavy, heavy favorite for the stage win on this finish and crucial bonus seconds. But alas, UAE did not work. The gap went out again, and some bizarre things took place in the breakaway. Two of the strangest actors in the professional peloton (Chris Horner calls them knuckleheads for not assisting their team leaders), van Aert and Marc Soler attacked over the third-to-last climb, bringing with them Wout Poels and Krists Neilands, who has been in sparkling form in this Tour. Neilands quickly had a nasty crash and the stage win looked like it would come down to three riders. Soler was gapped in the descent and suddenly it was Wout vs. Wout. In hindsight, Poels is the far superior climber and van Aert had wasted tons of energy through the stage and the Tour. Poels won the stage with a two-minute gap. Lawson Craddock deserves a special shout-out for taking fourth on the stage from the break and giving an epic interview afterwards. You absolutely love to see it. Down the slopes of the climb, another strange GC battle was taking place, with Yates leading out Pogacar for an expected attack against Jonas. Then Pogacar let Adam’s wheel go, before attacking up to him. Vingegaard stayed in his wheel the whole time, and at the end of the day, nothing had changed between the two of them.
A few random thoughts before I preview the final week:
The breakaways in this Tour have been insane, and they have cooperated better than they normally do. They have taken longer to form, and then ridden faster the rest of the stage than the GC teams are always capable of doing. Breakway winners are earning it, which is not always the case in Grand Tours.
In light of this, Pogi ought to have three to five stage wins already. He is out-of-this-world good, and better than he has ever been. If he was on a stronger team, he probably would (UAE is the best they have ever been, but still not nearly as strong as Jumbo). Ironically, the one he won, Jumbo-Visma did all the work for him.
It is always nice to see some new faces emerge, and grizzled veterans resurface at their top level, in the biggest race in the world. Guys like Izagirre and Poels, in their late 30s, have been super strong for years, while Neilands is new to this level. No one is getting lucky or faking their way to victory, or even top 5s on stages, in this Tour. The level is visibly higher than it has ever been. Craddock attested to this in his interview following stage 15. That being said, the breakaways are a bit of a lottery. On any given nailed-on break stage, there are between 10 and 30 guys that could win. Playing your cards right and having your best legs on the day determine who gets the glory.
Stage 16 (ITT). I’m going to stick with Pogi for this one, though it is no certainty. I think he takes 15 seconds and thus the yellow jersey. I do not say this with absolute confidence, but it seems the most probable outcome from the form curves of him and Jonas.
Stage 17: The Queen Stage. I do think Jonas is the favorite for this one, but it will not be easy. I do not believe the break can do it here.; the stage is too long, with too much climbing, and Jumbo-Visma can be expected to work all day to try to weaken Tadej Pogacar. But I’m going to pick Pogacar again to stick on Jonas’ wheel like glue and then defeat him in the final sprint. It will be an epic battle, especially if Pogi is in yellow. This is a can’t-miss day.
Stage 18: I’d give the break a slim chance here, but I think Philipsen will take the sprint. However, that is not to say I would understand the tactics of teams (besides the top GC teams and Alpecin) if they do not attempt to establish a strong breakway. Philipsen will destroy your sprinter if you ride for a sprint or if you sit in the peloton. You must attack if you want any shot of getting a stage win, and there are plenty of teams desperate for one.
Stage 19: Philipsen could win this one too, but I think the break will survive. This is probably their final chance and I would be absolutely dumbfounded if the biggest engines in the peloton did not attack early. Alpecin will not be capable of, or interested in controlling a strong breakaway. I’ll pick Wout van Aert from the breakaway to finally get it done.
Stage 20: 3.5 hours of insanity to crown the winner of the 2023 Tour de France. Or maybe not! With the Tour potentially coming down to seconds, we could see a battle royale on the Champs-Elysees the next day. But for this stage, it really depends on the situation going into it. There are a million tactical equations that everybody, not only the top two riders, need to work out. Could the breakaway survive? The strongest climbers in the world, not in the GC situation (and some that are!) will attack. The war for KOM points will be brutal (and a doomed mission for everybody named Jonas or Tadej). But I do not see a scenario in which they make it. As long as the GC situation between the top riders is within striking range, their domestiques will ride all-out from the gun to try to put their rivals in difficulty early. Or a few of them will go into the break to be used as satellite riders later, when it’s inevitably reeled back in. I would not rule out Bora or Ineos trying a long raid to put their man on the podium, either. Because this will be a GC day, it is again impossible to look past Pogacar, who traditionally is ruthless, strong in the third week, and good on this terrain (the climbs suit him to a T and the rolling platue at the end does too). I also believe Yates will fight like hell to take some bonus seconds from Jonas and secure his place on the final podium. The stage suits him too.
Stage 21: At this point I expect Pogacar to have a lead of 30-45 seconds. The traditional procession might not be so jovial this year. That being said, the mood will be calmer than if it was a lead of 10 seconds. Jumbo-Visma might try, but it will not work. Philipsen will win the stage in a bunch sprint.
So I’m sticking to my guns with Pogacar to win the Tour.
Philipsen has clinched the Green Jersey.
The Polka-Dot Jersey is the second-most interesting competition of the final week. Ciccone and Powless are currently tied for first place, but Powless is fading badly and is uncompetitive in stages at this point. I hate to say I told ya so. He unfortunately did not bring his best form to this Tour, or he would have likely taken a stage. Jonas is four points back, Pogacar a further six back, and a new figure has appeared in the top five in a bizarre turn of events. Wout van Aert is hunting KOM points from breakaways and is only 11 points behind the leaders. I do not understand why he is doing this; he’s better than that, and he probably could have won at least a stage without doing it. But I digress. Ciccone and Powless will throw hail-marys on stages 17 and 20 to try to stay up the road as long as possible. Powless will not make it far on either day, while Ciccone may be able to snipe a few KOMs on stage 17 before the Jumbo train mows him down. His problem is twofold. With Wout interested, Ciccone is unlikely to win the sprints at the top of medium mountains. And Wout will probably be in the breakway on at least one of these stages. It still seems more likely that Pogi or Jonas takes the King of the Mountains Jersey.
The White Jersey is wrapped up already with Pogacar five minutes ahead of Carlos Rodriguez.
I want to finish this piece with something I saw on Twitter during the second week.
NBC’s cameras captured the raw joy of a young boy with an American accent, holding a hat that just seconds before had been on the head of Tadej Pogacar. Pogi, of course, had given him the cap, after navigating the media and before stepping onto his team bus after Stage 15. To me, the most obvious reason that these images touch us deeply is that we all yearn for the days of our youth, before the realities of the world stole our innocent joy and adoration for our heroes. Already, the angry pitchforks are out on social media, with anonymous users demanding answers for the speed at which this Tour has been ridden (not so subtly accusing Pogacar and Vingegaard of doping). A child would never do that; he would simply sleep in the hat that his hero had given him that afternoon. Of course, there are many similar stories of Tour de France riders doing similar things for kids, and all are beautiful moments too. But just thinking about what went into creating this particular moment makes it extra special. A father’s love for his son exemplified by what must have included flying with him across an ocean, navigating through the mayhem of the Tour into the Alps, and spending what must have been many thousands of dollars. A multimillionaire athlete, exhausted from a 180-kilometer bike race in the mountains, dealing with the media scrum, sweaty, 10 seconds behind the maillot jaune, and still, lest we forget, a boyish character of just 24 revolutions around the sun. An eager child, with the courage to go near enough to the UAE team bus (which cannot be an easy feat) that his hero noticed him. And a cameraman, and Steve Porino, NBC’s roadside guy at the Tour, whose endless curiosity and enthusiasm redeems their broadcast team. None of these five people probably ever imagined that they would come together in the French Alps on just another hot July evening, to create something that, with the reach of the internet, would make me, a 27-year-old American man who hardly had any reason to become a lifelong obsessive fan of road bicycle racing in Europe, well up in the eyes. There are probably a million stories like this around the world. Fate, and the world in general, are quite strange when you really give them a bit of thought. We are all just living on a ball of rock, which happens to have water, floating in space, heated and lit by an unfathomably hot and gigantic star, the perfect 94 million miles away, the results of millions of years of catastrophic extinctions and unpredictable evolutions. None of us, by any calculation, have any right to be here. Only fate has granted us that privilege. And fate brought those five people together on July 16, 2023 A.D. in the Gregorian Calendar, to give us fanatics for 20 and 30-something men in skinsuits, riding the fastest bicycles human engineering has ever produced, in the biggest race on Earth, a reason to smile. And that is worth quite a bit, I think.
Puncheur 
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