Tour de France Preview

It’s that time again. The 2023 Tour de France kicks off in Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain on July 1.

The biggest bike race in the world promises a heavyweight rematch between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard for the yellow jersey. In the last two tours, these two have occupied the top spots on the podium, with Jonas the defending champion. Barring injury or illness, no one will be able to ride with these guys.

The race starts in the Basque Country, which means there will be hills right out of the gate.

Stage 1: Bilbao-Bilbao (182km): POW! The best opening stage profile of the Tour de France I’ve ever seen. 3221 meters of elevation gain (precisely two miles) in punchy climbs with an excellent finale (2k@10 percent, descent, 1k@5 percent final ramp). This stage really opens the door to a lot of scenarios, including GC action. The best outcome would be UAE ripping the 10 percent climb to drop all of the climby sprinters and doing a full sprint leadout for Pogacar on the final ramp to win the stage and take 10 bonus seconds. As I will try to hammer home throughout this preview, Pogacar should use the Roglic 2020 strategy and ride for bonus seconds to build up a lead on a virtually un-droppable (but out-sprint-able) Jonas. IF UAE does not attack, it could be a van der Poel, Alaphilippe, van Aert, etc battle.

Stage 2: Vitoria-Gasteiz-San Sebastian (209km): Another long hilly day in the Basque Country which unfortunately does not utilize much of the most savage terrain used in Classica San Sebastian and Itzulia Basque Country, but one that still has potential for good action. The final climb is 8.1k@5.2 percent, enough to shake up the race.

Stage 3: Amorebieta-Etxano-Bayonne (185km): This stage is also quite hilly, but the climbs come early and the finish is pretty easy. It will probably be a sprint day.

Stage 4: Dax-Nogaro (182km): A flat sprint day as the race says farewell to the Basque Country.

Stage 5: Pau-Laruns (165km): Straight to the Pyrenees in the first week! You absolutely love to see it. There are two main climbs in this one; the Col du Soudet (15.2@7 percent) and the Col de Marie Blanque (7.8k@8.4 percent with the final ramp 4.8k@10 percent). There is a descent then a draggy 8 kilometers to the finish line. This stage has Tadej Pogacar written all over it. The last time the Marie Blanque was used (2020 TDF), he won the stage. He is favored to win this one too.

Stage 6: Tarbes-Cauterets-Cambasque (145km): Three big mountains characterize a big second day in the Pyrenees. The Tourmalet isn’t a stage finish 😦 Still, this should be a good stage. The GC teams could control the breakaway and hopefully, we’ll see the two main protaganists duke it out on the final climb.

Stage 7: Monte-de-Marsan-Bordeaux (170km): A flat sprint day.

Stage 8: Libourne-Limoges (201km): A rolly second half of a long day opens up the race for a potential breakaway victory or a hilly sprinter to get the job done over the pure sprinters.

Stage 9: Saint-Leonard-de-Noblat-Puy de Dome (184km): A rolling day before the savage Puy de Dome (12.6km@7.8 percent) which has a finishing ramp of 4.5km at 11.5 percent. The final 15 minutes is where the difference will be made in the GC race. It could go to a breakaway depending on what the GC teams want to do. Jumbo-Visma should work for a Jonas stage win. This is a big test for Pogacar.

Stage 10: Vulcania-Issoire (167km): After the first rest day comes a very hilly stage, which should be one for a strong breakaway rider. I don’t expect any GC action with a long descent finish.

Stage 11: Clermont-Ferrand-Moulins (180km): Some hills, but not steep. This will be a bunch sprint.

Stage 12: Roanne-Belleville-en-Beaujolais (169km): A medium mountain stage that should go to the breakaway.

Stage 13: Chatillon-Sur-Chalaronne-Grand Colombier (138km): A very short stage with an easy climb before the monstrous Grand Colombier (17.8km@7 percent with false flats and plenty of extended ramps above 8 percent). Tadej Pogacar won on this finish in 2020, outsprinting Roglic. This climb probably suits Vingegaard better at this point, so expect Jumbo-Visma to control the breakaway and do a full leadout for Jonas to attack off of. At this stage of the race, everybody will have a clear view of the GC dynamics.

Stage 14: Annemasse-Morzine les Portes du Soleil (152km): Climbing all day before the difficult Joux Plane (11.7km@8.5 percent) and a descent finish, which is a disgrace. After what happened in the Tour de Suisse, steep, technical descent finishes should be banned. Anyways, Mark Padun won on the Joux Plane in the 2021 Dauphine and then promptly disappeared. This is another Jonas-type climb that could prove quite hard for Pogacar. Without knowing the condition of the riders before the race, I would lean toward Tadej losing at least 30 seconds on this stage.

Stage 15: Les Gets le Portes du Soleil-Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc de Bettex (180km): The French can’t seem to pick a one or two-word name for a town? Another 7.7k 7 percent climb to finish a medium mountain stage, which suits Pogacar. UAE needs to ride with all they have on this stage to get Pogacar the stage win. If in Dauphine form, Jonas won’t drop on any of the climbs, but Pogacar can win the final sprint and gain some bonus seconds.

Stage 16: Passy-Combloux (22km) (ITT): A mountainous medium-length time trial, that should further separate Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard from the rest, but probably will not make much of a difference between the two of them.

Stage 17: Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc-Courchevel (166km): The Queen Stage of the 2023 Tour de France finishes with a short descent after the hardest climb (Loze). Officially, Stage 17 contains 5399 meters of elevation gain. This stage could easily decide the Tour, and could see a dramatic reversal of fortunes for the top GC candidates. In 2020, the Loze was used for the first time and Pogacar was dropped slightly by Roglic and Miguel Angel Lopez. This finish is big-time Vingegaard territory, and it wouldn’t be shocking if Pogacar shipped over a minute and lost the TdF here. I hope not. But I do hope for an epic battle.

Stage 18: Moutiers-Bourg-en-Bresse (186km): A longish stage with a few lumps could be one for the breakaway. Let’s hope for a dramatic chase from the sprint teams.

Stage 19: Moirans-en-Montagne-Poligny (173km): Too hilly for whichever sprinters have survived the Alps. Probably a breakaway day.

Stage 20: Belfort-Le Markstein (133km): An epic medium mountain day on stage 20 leaves the possibility for an insanely dramatic stage to decide the Tour on its final day of action. The last two climbs are long enough and over 8 percent. Let’s hope the GC situation is still in flux and somebody tries a long raid here. I’m thrilled with the stage design.

Stage 21: Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines-Paris Champs-Elysees (115km): The traditional procession into the City of Light followed by the most prestigious bunch sprint in the world of bike racing. This stage should not affect the GC.

I’m going to pick Pogacar to win the Tour de France, with Jonas second and Mattias Skjelmose third. Plenty more could be written about the other jersey competitors, sprinters, stage hunters, etc. but for the sake of brevity and interest I’ll leave it there. Let’s hope for an epic battle.