Two of the Big Six battle for the Maglia Rosa on a brutal course
It is hard to believe, but it’s nearly that time. The most beautiful race in the most beautiful place kicks off on May 6th in Fossacessia, Italy, on the Adriatic Sea.
As one of cycling’s three Grand Tours, the format for the Giro is 21 stages with two rest days at approximately one-week intervals. There are three individual time trials, which is unusual for a modern Grand Tour. The remaining 18 road stages range in length from 126 to 219 kilometers. Because TTs tend to be far shorter than road stages, this year’s Giro went with a number of road stages over 200 kilometers and no real short stages besides the final day in Rome.
I will start by running through each stage profile and give a few contenders for some. Then I will profile the breakaway artists, the sprinters, the TTers, and finally the GC riders before giving my predictions for the shape of the race, stage victories, and finally the GC podium.
Stage 1 -Fossacessia Marina-Ortona (ITT) 19.6km: It’s a pan-flat 17km TT before a 1.2km drag at 5 percent followed by a flat 2km. This is about a 25-minute effort, which is enough for GC favorites to gain or lose significant time right out of the gate. I expect at least one top GC rider to come into the Giro undercooked (not yet in top form) because of a plan to peak for the decisive third week. Those rider(s) will get smashed in the opening TT. As for the route profile, 1.2km at 5 percent is not enough to trouble the flat TT specialists. That being said, most of the top time trialists in this Giro are also GC riders, with the exception of Filippo Ganna, the biggest engine in the world. Top contenders are Ganna, Evenepoel, and Roglic.
Stage 2 – Teramo-San Salvao – 202km: This one runs mostly along the Adriatic Coast, making a detour inland to pick up a few climbs. It’s a long, lightly rolling stage with 1800 meters of elevation gain. Long valleys between the early climbs in the first half of the stage will discourage the big teams from pulling hard and encourage a large breakaway to gain significant time. The key climb in my view crests with about 80 kilometers remaining. It’s 4.5 kilometers at 6.2 percent. It’s a quick descent immediately followed by 2.6k @ 5 percent. That’s enough to drop the pure sprinters in the race if Trek-Segafredo (the team of former World Champion Mads Pedersen) is interested in hammering it. They’d have to burn most of the team for 80 minutes or so (68 km) following those two climbs if they want to keep the rest of the sprinters off the back of the peloton. But they have demonstrated a willingness to do this in Grand Tour stages. Pedersen took three stages and the Green Jersey in last year’s Vuelta (and 4 second places!). That being said, the sprint field in this year’s Giro leaves something to be desired due to a lack of flat stages. There aren’t many pure sprinters Trek needs to drop on this stage. So teams have done the wise thing and mostly sent their “climby-sprinty bois” who can get over hilly stages and still pack a hefty punch at the end. In light of this, I see the teams of these versatile sprinters cooperating, controlling a strong break, and pushing hard on the climbs to get rid of Cavendish and co. for a reduced peloton sprinting it out at the finish. The GC men will not be troubled by today’s stage barring a crash or mechanical. The top contenders I see for this stage are Pedersen, Kaden Groves, and Michael Matthews.
Stage 3 – Vasto-Melfi – 213km: One of the longest stages in the race takes on a very gently, but gradually rising course for 177km before the racing really begins. There are two climbs of middling difficulty with a minuscule descent between them. The first is 6.4km at 6.4 percent (which is oddly satisfying to me) and the second is 3.1km at 6.1 percent. That one crests about 24 km from the finish line and is followed by a descent, short plateau, descent again, 1km 3 percent drag, and finally a 5-ish kilometer flat run-in to the line. This is difficult stage to call. This year’s Giro seems to like these 4-6 percent climbs because they create a lot of mystery about which type of rider will win. I like the parcours for a sneaky GC battle for bonus seconds with Roglic being the favorite, but I think the stage is too long for teams to want to control. The breakaway will take this one. Giro breakaways are hard to predict, and it’s hard to foresee which top 10-15ish riders will go for stages, and which ones will ride for GC.
Stage 4 – Venosa-Lago Laceno – 175km: A medium mountain stage without a meter of flat ground in the valleys between climbs. 3900 meters of total elevation will make for a tough day in the saddle. This stage has shallow climbs most of the day before the final ramp is 4.4km at 8.8 percent, including 2k at 9.5. This is followed by a few kilometers on a flat plateau to the finish. That’s more than steep enough to encourage GC action and kill off a potential breakaway. I think Remco will try on this stage, as the finish suits him. In light of that, I see Quick-Step pacing all day to control what will likely be a strong breakaway sniffing a potential stage win, especially with a tough start to the stage giving the second-tier climbers an opportunity to get up the road. Top contenders are Evenepoel, Roglic, and Tao Goeghegan Hart (I can’t believe I just wrote that, but he has a decent sprint and just won the Tour of the Alps).
Stage 5 – Atripalda-Salerno – 171km: A very strange profile and my assumption that the GC guys will have battled the prior day leads me to think that this one will go to a breakaway. Almost out of the gate is a 3.8km 7.6 percent climb, which will rule out most of the rouleurs and second-tier sprinters hoping to get in the break. The stage then rolls with serious hills to almost 1000 meters elevation before rolling all the way back to sea level. The last 14 kilometers are pan-flat. As much as I expect the peloton to take a day off, I’m excited for this one. It’s impossible to predict. Top contenders are Magnus Cort, Michael Matthews, and Kaden Groves (I see Pedersen getting dropped on the multiple climbs over 7 percent).
Stage 6 – Napoli-Napoli – 162 km: It’s a loop from one of Southern Italy’s most famous cities: another weird medium mountain stage with a relatively light 2400m of elevation gain and 40km of flat roads to finish. There is an early 10.4-kilometer climb at 5.8 percent, then a few hills, then a 9km climb at 4 percent. It is as if the Giro organizers were begging Mads Pedersen to show up for the race. Trek will control the breakaway and ride the climbs at the proper tempo to drop the pure sprinters but keep Pedersen in the wheels. They will smash the valley to keep Cav and his buddies in the gruppetto and Pedersen will sprint from a medium-sized peloton. GC men will take a day off. The top contenders are Pedersen, Groves, and Matthews.
Stage 7 – Capua-Gran Sasso d’Italia – 218km: The last time this climb was used in the Giro, I enjoyed it despite the lame profile. It’s a long slog up the stepped Gran Sasso d’Italia, but because it is at a fairly high altitude and there are plateaus, the scenery is spectacular. This stage has over 4000m of elevation gain. There are some draggy valleys (I would hate those as a rider. Constantly battling 1-2 percent gradients before a gigantic mountain would piss me off) and a few medium climbs before the big boy: 28.5km at 3.4 percent which includes long plateaus and descents. The final ramp will be decisive: 6.4km at 7.2 percent which goes up to over 2100m elevation. This is a tough finish and will defeat a desperate breakaway. I don’t expect a big team to pull all day because this is the joint-longest stage in the race, but it’s just too hard a finish for a break, unless it contains a top-ten climber, to survive. Some GC guy will struggle with the altitude and lose his Giro on this stage. I don’t think this finish suits Remco or Roglic too well, but the strongest riders tend to do well in bike racing on a plethora of different profiles. Top contenders are those two and Geraint Thomas, who I have not mentioned yet but I expect to be in top form.
Stage 8 – Terni-Fossombrone – 207km: Yet another long stage with some quite steep climbs in the final hour+ of racing. This one will go to the breakaway or I know nothing about bike racing. There is a 4.9km 5.8 percent climb to start for break formation because even the organizers knew the GC guys would not be playing ball, at least for the stage win. After the descent, it’s flat enough (for a WorldTour rider) for about 135km, and the breakaway will be hammering away to gain a huge advantage over the peloton. Then there are a series of four climbs: 2.1k 10 percent, 7.1k 7.1 percent (with a 2.3k 10.7 percent section), .8k 10.9 percent, then the 2.1k 10 percent climb again, before a short descent and few flat kilometers to the finish line. This is hard. Roglic is a top puncheur, so usually Jumbo would control the break for the stage win and bonus seconds. But the descent and flat before the finish (and the fact that Remco is a pretty decent sprinter for a GC rider at this point) will discourage them. That longer climb will also drop all of the climby-sprinty bois, if it is paced at all. I think the stage is too hard for Pedersen, Groves, and Matthews, so I think a pretty decent climber in the breakaway will take this one solo. There could be GC action depending on the GC situation at the time, but with the all-important TT the next day, guys will be wanting an easier day.
Stage 9 – Savignano sul Rubicone-Cesena (ITT) 35km: The pan-flat, relatively long TT should eliminate all but two riders from the GC scenario. Unless Roglic and Remco both utterly capitulate in the third week, they will be the only riders in contention for the victory after this TT. I expect Remco to take a little time on Roglic here and these two to put over a minute into everybody else. The other contender for GC who should go well here is Geraint Thomas… but he’ll be relegated to third. I like Ganna, Stefan Kung, and Remco for the stage victory.
Stage 10 – Scandian-Viareggio – 196km: After the rest day comes another long, weird profile (with 3000 meters total gain) that starts from near sea level, rolls up to 1521 meters with numerous climbs between 5 and 7 percent and relentless drags and unclassified hills before the peak and a long descent. Right at the bottom, the Giro takes on a 2.4km 8 percent climb before a quick descent and a 70-ish km long flat run-in to the finish. I think this is a Trek-Segafredo-Pedersen stage again. He can handle most of these climbs and they’ll soft-pedal the 8-percenter to keep him in the wheels. The top contenders are the same three climby-sprinty bois.
Stage 11 – Camaiore-Tortona – 219km: The longest stage of this year’s Corsa Rosa has two 10-ish km climbs at 4-ish percent average and a mostly downhill 70km stretch to the finish with the exception of a 4.9km 4.5 percent climb 40k out. This is a breakaway day, but rather than forcing their teams to chase all day, I expect the same contenders to get themselves in the break and compete for the stage.
Stage 12 – Bra-Rivoli – 179km: A hilly day with a long 67ish km valley followed by a stepped climb, the finale of which is 4.9km at 8.3 percent. A steep descent is followed by a fairly flat 20ish kilometers to arrive in Rivoli. The hard final ascent is too far from the finish to encourage GC attacks, but the stage for once is short enough that the break might get gunned down by the pace of the strong teams. I like a small group sprint among GC favorites with Roglic and Evenepoel among the favorites.
Stage 13 – Borgofranco d’Ivrea-Crans-Montana – 207km: Arguably the Queen Stage of the Giro d’Italia, Stage 13 contains 5267 meters of elevation gain, which is absurd, especially considering the first 60km is fairly flat. The beleaguered riders will tackle three mammoth mountains in the Alps, starting with the St. Bernard Pass. This one is 34.3km averaging 5.5 percent, gaining around 1900 meters and finishing at 2470m above sea level, making it the Cima Coppi (highest point) of this year’s Giro. The final ramp is 18.6km at 6.8 percent including a 7.8 percent kilometer near the top. Normally the 5.5 percent figure would be light fare for GC riders, but the length and high altitude at the end will start to put people in difficulty. There will not be attacks here with the brutality of the rest of the stage still to come, but the fatigue accumulation of a 75-minute-ish climb to high altitude will be real. Immediately following a long descent comes the hardest climb in the Giro: Croix de Coeur, which is 15.5km at 8.7 percent to over 2100m altitude. The final 6k averages about 10 percent. GC riders will be dropping on a penultimate climb if any team chooses to pace at all. I’m worried about Remco here; he’s traditionally struggled with monster stages and long, steep climbs. The race dynamics are impossible to predict at this point, but if Roglic is down, say a minute going into this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jumbo-Visma decided to test Remco and make this stage quite hard on this climb. There’s little to be gained drafting here, so putting Sepp Kuss (Roglic’s top climbing domestique) on the front to set a 95 percent tempo won’t burn him too badly for the final climb. The problem is the long valley between the descent of the Croix de Coeur and the final climb. It’s a 25k pan-flat road. This discourages early attacks. On the other hand, it could cause numerous GC riders, including Remco or Roglic, if either has a bad day, to lose even more time if they are isolated (without teammates). Froome’s epic 80km raid in the 2018 Giro was on a stage with long valleys. But he and his team had already shredded the peloton to bits by the time he was riding the valleys solo with his remaining GC rivals (and one strong domestique, Sebastian Reichenbach) chasing him. He simply smashed the whole course and won by nearly 3 minutes. This scenario is unlikely, especially on this stage before the third week has even begun, but a long-ranger is not out of the question if somehow Remco or Roglic has lost significant time to this point. The final climb is also hard: 13km at 7.4 percent, which is basically equivalent to the famous Hauticam in France. The most likely scenario is both riders being close on time and waiting until this climb to make a move, or even waiting for a sprint. This stage is so hard that I expect the other GC riders to lose minutes. The GC boys will be out there for 6.5 hours and the gruppetto (if they make the time cut) for about 7.
Stage 14 – Sierre-Cassano Magnago – 194km: This stage has a flat first 35 kilometers except for a 1.6km 7.6 percent kick. Then a ridiculous 19.9km at 6.6 percent with the first 7.5 at 8 percent. This is followed by a long descent before a nearly pancake-flat 100km finish with the exception of 1km 6percent 17k from the line. This is one of the strangest-looking stage profiles I’ve ever seen and as such the breakaway will have a day here. After the prior stage, many men will be out of the running for the GC, perhaps for the unfortunate few; even hopes of a top-ten unlikely. They might try to gain 5-10 minutes back on this one, or at the very least go for a stage win. The big guns will take the day off, unless a podium contender gets in a dangerous breakaway.
Stage 15 – Seregno-Bergamo – 195km: Another fairly long mountainous test, this time in the Dolomites, Stage 15 contains 4000m elevation gain. There are long valleys with lumps and bumps between the three big climbs; the final one being 10.8k at 6.2 percent, peaking 27km from the conclusion of the stage. Then, there’s a 1.3k 7.3 percent punch just 4k out and a descent finish. I don’t think the end of this stage is difficult enough to force big GC gaps, but it will depend on the GC situation going into the stage. If Jumbo-Visma wants to pull all day, they can smash the breakaway into oblivion and Roglic can go for the stage win. But it would be a big ask for the team going into an insane final week.
Stage 16 – Sabbio Chiese-Monte Bondone – 203km: Clocking in at 5645 meters of elevation gain, this is one of the hardest Grand Tour stages, on paper, in years. I still rate Stage 13 as a bigger test due to the nature of the course, but this one should terrify everyone too. The main difference between the two stages is the lack of long flat valleys between the big mountains. The first main climb of the day is the hardest, the Passo Santa Barbara, which is 12.3km at 8.4 percent. However, the first 6k are at nearly 10 percent average. The summit is only a third of the way through the stage. After descending just a few kilometers, the peloton will hit Passo Bordala, which is 3.7km at 7.1 percent. The next two mountains are in the 5.5 percent range, 11 and 17km, respectively, but there are other lumps and bumps on the course too. The final climb of the day is 20.3km at 6.7 percent, with plenty of steeper sections and the final ramp 8.4k at 7.8 percent. I think this final climb is difficult enough to discourage early attacks. That being said, it’s impossible to predict race dynamics without knowing the condition of the potential stage contenders, team strength (always a question mark in the third week), and GC situation.
Stage 17 – Pergine Valsugana-Caorle – 197km: A fun downhill stage that begins 572 meters above sea level and finishes at 0 meters elevation. This would typically be a nailed-on sprint stage, but with the length, downhill, and being in the third week, it could go to an all-star rouleur breakaway. The reasons for this are that the sprinters may have already been eliminated from the race due to the time cut on the savage mountain stages, the downhill will give the breakaway a boost, the longish nature of the stage will discourage sprint teams (which may already be decimated due to crashes, illness, etc) from chasing all day. I like Ganna to do something here and win the stage from the break.
Stage 18 – Oderzo-Zoldo Alto – 161km: Another brutal day in the saddle begins with a 24-kilometer valley that starts to drag towards the first mountain, which is 13.5km at 7.1 percent. After a rolling plateau and descent, the riders will hit a speed bump before a long valley with a gradual climb at the end of it. The next climb is 9.5km at 7.9 percent but features many steeper sections. Immediately following the descent is the penultimate climb, Coi, which is 6.3k at 8.8 percent, the middle 3k of which ramp up to nearly 11 percent average. The descent is only about two kilometers before the final little kicker is 2.6k at 6.6 percent. I expect with the shorter distance and the difficulty of Coi, a GC rider will enjoy the stage honors.
Stage 19 – Longarone-Tre Cime di Lavaredo -183km: With 5469 meters of elevation gain packed into a slightly shorter distance, it is yet another monster day on the pedals. Commencing just 400m above sea level this stage is deceptively hard in the first half, and obviously brutal in the second half. After 20-ish kilometers of light rollers, an endless rolling drag punishes the riders for 65km finishing at 1872m and including a 4k 7 percent climb to finish. Then there is a short descent before four medium-length mountain passes at altitude. The most difficult is the Passo Giau, which is 9.8km at 9.3 percent average gradient, making it the steepest mountain in this year’s Giro. It is quite regular around 9 percent and is significantly shorter than the Croix de Coeur, so I rate it as a little bit easier. But it could still decide the race. It crests around 40k from the finish. The final climb is 9.5k at 7.1 percent, which is a good stage design on the part of the organizers. It’s hard enough to create gaps, but easy enough to encourage attacks on earlier climbs. It will be possible to gain or lose a bucketload of time on this stage if the race opens up on the Passo Giau and teams have played their cards correctly with satellite riders in the break. It is not difficult to imagine Roglic or Evenepoel completely cracking on this stage and having their heart broken.
Stage 20 – Tarvisio-Monte Lussari (ITT) 18.6km: An insane time trial concludes the war for the Maglia Rosa. After all the gargantuan mountain stages in the latter part of the Giro, this short TT may prove decisive. It is a gently rolling first 11km before 7-ish kilometers of hell. The first part of the mountain is 4.7k at 15 percent. Yes, 15 percent average gradient. In a time trial. Then it eases off to 6-9 percent for the next few k before a short flat finish. Even including the easier section in the whole climb, it is 7.1k at 12.2 percent. When I first learned of this stage after the route reveal in October, I was kind of excited. It is novel in a Grand Tour, or in any modern race. Why not make the route extremely hard? But now, I am not a huge fan. A climb this steep in a TT could influence the strategy in the third week leading up to it. Climbers less accomplished in the TT could think they have a shot at doing well in this stage and be less likely to attack in the mountains in previous stages. I don’t believe this time trial balances the route. I also do not like bike changes in TTs. It’s doubtless that the top riders will use a TT bike for the flat section and swap to a lightweight climbing bike for the mountain. Proper gearing will be important. Pacing will be important. Not being utterly cooked at the end of a hard Grand Tour will be crucial. A GC rider, potentially the one in the Maglia Rosa, will lose his position in the standings on this stage.
Stage 21 – Roma-Roma – 126km: A flat road circuit around the Eternal City finishes off the 2023 Giro d’Italia. There won’t be GC attacks, but it’s still a race, and the sprinters will have their day.
Let’s discuss the top riders in a few disciplines.
Sprinters:
Mads Pedersen: In great form this season and a top rider, but I just don’t think he has the flat kick to win a bunch sprint. This Giro’s sprint field is weak, though, and he may do so. Even if not, his team puts in work on hilly stages and he goes in breakaways when he needs to. He’ll rack up three to five stages.
Fernando Gaviria: Probably the best sprinter of the moment riding this Giro. He won the final stage of Romandie with a display of force (and cornering). He’s won five stages of the Giro in his career. Movistar doesn’t have much of a team to control for bunch sprints, but maybe other teams will do this for them. Gaviria is also looking in decent climbing form so Trek might not be able to drop him on the shallow climby stages.
Pascal Ackermann: Two-time Vuelta stage winner, but has not shown much form in recent times. I don’t rate his chances for a stage in this Giro.
Mark Cavendish: Ahh, the legend himself. Not much to be said that hasn’t been said already. His new team, Astana, sucks, and he hasn’t shown much this season. He abandoned Romandie early. He won’t be competitive in the early stages, and I think he’ll OTL stage 13.
Kaden Groves: Perhaps the best hilly sprinter in-form aside from Pedersen, I expect at least one stage from the young Australian.
Michael Matthews: Was in great form early in the year, but seems to be struggling recently. He and his directors put his team to work often, and perhaps he can live up to their efforts in this Giro. I just think Groves and Pedersen are in better condition at the moment.
Alberto Dainese: He managed to take a stage in last year’s Giro (one of just three career wins), but aside from a third place in a Tirrenno stage, has done essentially nothing this year. But some Italians seem to be riding with no chain every time they turn up for the Giro, so he may shock and get another stage this time around, especially if some of the bigger boys miss the time cut in the Dolomites.
Magnus Cort: Looking to complete his trilogy of Grand Tour stage wins, and many of the stages suit him. I’d love to see him get at least one, and despite not looking amazing lately, I think he will. He’s a wily tactician and he can climb. He will be extra motivated because the trilogy is a big objective for many second-tier riders.
Jonathan Milan: Young Italian with a lot of potential, but I don’t think he’s a good enough climber or sprinter to compete in these stages yet.
Breakaway Artists:
Lennard Kamna: The new Thomas de Gendt, Kamna is the obvious pick to rack up a few stages in the Alps. He’s really strong and he knows how to manage a break. I see him unfortunately riding for GC in the first two weeks, dropping out of contention, and getting a stage late in the race to salvage his Giro.
Thibaut Pinot: I think Pinot knows a GC challenge is not realistic in his final Giro. But he just rode up Thyon 2000 in 58 minutes, mashing 5.9ish w/kg (a better performance than the best day of his life, victory on the Tourmalet in the 2019 Tour). He can win two stages from the break with this form. I love the guy and I’m hoping he does.
Patrick Conrad: Another Bora rider with a thin Palmares but a Tour stage win under his belt. He’s rounding into top form at the right time, having looked pretty weak early in the year. He took 8th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then 2nd in Eschborn-Frankfurt, which is a WorldTour one-day race. He and Kamna can put in some serious work in the mountains.
Santiage Buitrago: The young Colombian just podiumed Liege-Bastogne-Liege and he has already won a stage of the Giro in his career. He’s been riding well all year, the only question is whether he elects to go for a top-10 in GC or to stage-hunt.
Ben Healy: The revelation of the Ardennes, the 22-year-old Irishman makes his Grand Tour debut. I think he will be tired from a long spring and I don’t think the stages suit his puncheur characteristics. I’m predicting an abandon, and I don’t think EF (his team) should be sending him to this race.
Jay Vine: The best climber in the race aside from Roglic and Remco and the Australian national TT champion has not been mentioned yet in this preview. What? He’s coming off of an injury and on paper is only the third GC option for his team (foolishly so). He’s never ridden a Grand Tour for GC and his ability to handle the third week is always a big question mark. I’m partial to Vine because the watts are the watts. As the Zwift World Champion, his physiological capabilities in a one-off watts/kg test are about as good as the galacticos. He’s shown his ability to produce generational climbing performances, dropping Remco and Roglic on Pico Jano in last year’s Vuelta. It’s not out of the question that he wins the Giro d’Italia, but more likely is a mercurial race in which he drops an absolute nuke in the first week and rides into contention for the Maglia Rosa, but a crash or illness forces an abandon.
There are numerous other riders who could manage a stage win from the break if things played out in their favor, but it would be fruitless to name them all.
GC riders:
Remco Evenepoel: The next Eddy Mercx is starting to build an argument for true ownership of the title. At 23 years of age, he has won 41 races, including 4 of the big ones. All of the accolades he received as a junior are almost not enough to describe his imperious demeanor and generational ability. Coming off his majisterial victory in Liege-Bastogne-Liege for the second year running, he enters the Giro d’Italia as the favorite.
Primoz Roglic: The best rider of all time who never won the Tour de France, Roglic is the winner of 72 races, a ridiculous figure for a GC rider. He has won the Vuelta three times and podiumed the Tour and the Giro. He has an insane 18 career GC titles in his career. The silliest thing about how good Roglic’s career has been is that he should have won even more races if only he wasn’t so prone to crashes/meltdowns. He enters just about every stage race as the strongest rider in the field. This time will be different, with a thermonuclear Remco in the race. My heart is with the Slovenian.
Geraint Thomas: A consistent performer in Grand Tours with a victory in the 2018 Tour de France in his palmares, Thomas knows how to peak for big races. Unfortunately, his top level is no longer good enough to compete for the victory if one of the big four GC riders is in the race. He’s a solid time trialist, and is the natural pick for the final slot on the podium.
Tao Geoghegan Hart: The 2020 Giro champion is back in good shape with his second-ever GC victory in the Tour of the Alps, but it seems far-fetched to imagine him squaring off with Roglic and Remco. He can handle a hard third week, though, so a victory is not completely out of the question.
Aleksandr Vlasov: 5th place in last year’s Tour de France, it has not been a great season thus far for the former Russian. He raced Tour of the Alps, but Ineos Grendiers basically put him to the sword as a team there. They bring an even stronger squad to the Giro, and Vlasov probably can’t hang.
Joao Almeida: He has never podiumed a Grand Tour despite showing lots of promise. He’s had a mediocre season so far. I don’t see him being competitive.
Hugh Carthy: A British beanpole with the worst riding style in the WorldTour peloton, Carthy is sneakily good on brutal finishes. He podiumed the 2020 Vuelta including a victory on the Angliru. He finished second in the GC in the Tour of the Alps, so he’ll probably do okay in this Giro despite shipping loads of time in the TTs.
Brandon McNulty: The American is still just 25 years old and has been okay so far this season. He destroyed the Tour de France peloton on the Peyragudes stage last year and finished third to Pogacar and Vingegaard on that epic day. His climbing level is quite inconsistent though. I don’t know what his role will be at UAE for this Giro, but he should be given a shot at GC. Perhaps a top ten is possible.
There are others who will ride for a top ten and be invisible, dropping early on climbs and never showing up on TV. They won’t contest a stage win and they might finish between 8-15 in the final standings. I don’t mind this too much personally, though some fans hate it.
How will the fight for the Maglia Rosa play out? I foresee Remco taking an early lead over Roglic in the first week due to time trials and not many differences on the early climbing stages. Both riders’ teams will let somebody from a breakaway steal the Maglia Rosa at some point in the first few weeks, which takes the pressure off these teams to control the race. Stage 13 should create some gaps but I don’t envisage a long-range raid from Roglic yet. Remco will wear pink after this Queen Stage, and the rest of the GC hopefuls will be essentially out of contention for the win. Everyone else will be content to fight for the podium, while the galacticos will settle for nothing less than total victory. Roglic will risk it all on the final mountain stages to try to make up time, sending Kuss in the break and attacking from way out. I can’t predict if this will work or not, but somehow, against all odds, I see Roglic winning this Giro d’Italia.
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