What better first race preview for Puncheur to feature than the ultimate puncheur‘s race, La Fleche Wallonne. It’s the midweek classic (and thus least prestigious) within the legendary Ardennes Week. Widely known as a 3-minute watts-per-kilogram test up the steep Mur de Huy, Fleche actually packs over 3,000 meters of elevation gain (and three ascents of the mur) into 194 kilometers and offers opportunities for strong teams and riders to make a selective race.
That being said, Fleche in the modern era has been a snoozer until the final ascent of the mur. The traditional formula of a weak morning breakaway staying away for 180 or so kilometers before being its exhausted riders are swept up in the tense moments before the peloton approaches the finish line is almost nailed on. Almost. Here’s why I think we may see a slightly different race this year.
It is impossible to talk about professional road racing in the past few years without the name Tadej Pogacar coming up early in the conversation. He won the Tour de France in consecutive years at the ages of 21 and 22. He won three Monuments. He won 46 races in four years as a GC rider. He has ranked first in the world rankings for two consecutive seasons. It took a Herculean effort from a dominant team and a rider producing historically great climbing performances to defeat him in the 2022 Tour de France (GCN commentator Brian Kelly suggested that this loss in the most important race “poked the bear,” angering the best rider in the world and inspiring a Mercxian season. It is difficult to argue with this view). Pogacar’s palmares at the ripe old age of 24 invite envy from all but the most legendary riders of all time.
But if possible, he is even more eminent in 2023. I won’t give a full recount of his utter domination of the European peloton this year, but a short introduction may explain why every other rider must be concerned that they may be able to defeat him. A dominant solo victory in a small Spanish 1.1 race featuring gravel opened his account for the season. He went to win two GC titles, including Paris-Nice, the Ronde van Vlaanderen, and Amstel Gold race as the highlights of his 11 victories this year. It is mid-April.
So it is well-established that Pogacar is the best rider in the world by a gigantic margin. His insane versatility opens up an enormous number of races in which he can compete for the victory. If the race is not ending in a massive bunch sprint with Fabio Jakobsen and co. Pogacar is probably entering the race as the favorite. I will dedicate a different post to explaining just how unusual this is in modern professional cycling, but suffice it to say for now that he is the best on almost every terrain.
This matters in Fleche Wallonne, and it will define the race. With all I have said about Pogacar’s superhuman abilities on a bike, the race profile of Fleche perhaps does not perfectly suit the Slovenian’s characteristics. Pogacar is a little heavy for the Mur de Huy and his 3-minute watts/kg figure is suspect. He has not been competitive in past participations in the race. Pogacar is unbeatable in an attritional race that is hard from early on; but he is perhaps vulnerable in a fresh 3 minute test, which is more or less what Fleche is.
So Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates have a few options. They can send strong workers in the breakaway to either go for the victory or wait up and pull Pogacar later as satellite riders. They can keep the team together and make the race eye-wateringly difficult starting on the penultimate ascent of the Mur de Huy and perhaps deaden the legs of rival puncheurs. Or, in the most likely scenario, they can race Fleche as normal, control the break, and launch Pog up the mur at the end of the race, just betting that his insane form and the subpar field will result in a victory.
Let’s talk about the competition then: Powless, Vlasov, Mas, Landa, Gaudu, Hindley, Higuita, Pidcock, Cosnefroy, Woods… I’m not seeing anybody else on the PCS startlist that can challenge for the podium.
I’m going to stick my neck out and say that these guys will not defeat an in-form Pogacar no matter how the race is ridden. I think the other teams should get creative and send some powerful riders in the early breakaway to try to shake things up. UAE’s team is strong, but is it strong enough to control an open race? Probably. If not, Pogacar is genius enough to insert himself into a dangerous breakaway and win in that scenario anway.
My prediction: The Slovenian adds another classic to his Palmares and the legend grows.
Puncheur 
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